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Forums - General - PoliCHARTZ - Thread of U.S. Politics & the Presidential Election

Kasz216 on 09 November 2008
Final-Fan said:
But if the crime rate for an untargeted crime is lower, then the risk of any individual becoming the victim of that untargeted crime is by definition less, no? So it seems to me that the only question is where your math is wrong, not if.

How is this logic mistaken?

Because untargeted crime doesn't always hit someone.

Drunk Drivers don't always hit people.  Other times they get arrested, hit trees or make it home ok without getting caught.

More often then not Drunk Driving is "victimless."

Once again.  Say you have a 1 in 20 chance of getting hit by a drunk driver. 

On a roll of 1 you get hit.  2-5 they hit a tree, 6-10 they get arrest.  10-20 they get home.

The immigrant has the same rolls.  So for him to save you... you need to hit a 1... and he needs to hit a 1.  That's a 1 in 40.

So unless the crime rate is in term that miniscule... your more at risk.



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Final-Fan on 09 November 2008

I don't see how that matters to my point, unless you think that illegal immigrants are more likely to be deadly when they drive drunk.  (If the "vehicular homicide" sub-crime-rate is 1/20 or any other fraction of the overall drunk driving crime rate, how does that affect the point I made in any way? [edit: the crime rate still goes up with the removal of a lower-crime-rate subpopulation, and it seems to me that the risk to any random individual (for untargeted crimes) goes up by definition.])



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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akuma587 on 09 November 2008

I would say get back on topic, but there isn't really a topic to get back on to.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

The Ghost of RubangB on 09 November 2008

CELEBRATE GOOD OBAMA COME ON!

(It's obama obama)



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Kasz216 on 09 November 2008
Final-Fan said:

I don't see how that matters to my point, unless you think that illegal immigrants are more likely to be deadly when they drive drunk.  (If the "vehicular homicide" sub-crime-rate is 1/20 or any other fraction of the overall drunk driving crime rate, how does that affect the point I made in any way? [edit: the crime rate still goes up with the removal of a lower-crime-rate subpopulation, and it seems to me that the risk to any random individual (for untargeted crimes) goes up by definition.])

Re-read the odds in the D20.  It's actually very basic.

With more people in the city.  All drunk driving will be more deadly, yet the chances of you personally getting hit will be almost unchanged.

In the situation without the illegal immigrant, there are 2 drunk drivers.

You roll 1 D20, twice... and if you get a 1... your dead.

In the situation with the illegal immigrant there are 3 drunk drivers.

You roll 1 D20 three times... as does the immigrant.  If you get a 1... your dead.

UNLESS the immigrant ALSO rolls a 1 on the D20... AND rolls a higher initative then you.  (Flip of a coin.)


This is because most drunk drivers don't hit people.  Since it's untargeted and a "wrong place at a wrong time" type crime.

What about that doesn't make sense?

The rate that you are going to be in the "wrong place" is so low... that an additional 1 for 1 human shield isn't going to help because there is an equally low chance that said person will be at the "wrong place."

There is an extra 1 in 20 shot of you getting killed...

While there is a 1 in 400 chance of you and your shield both rolling a 1 at any time.

I mean... which of these options would your rather have...

I roll 1 D20 twice... and if I get a 1 on die.

Or I roll 1 D20 3 times... and if I get a 1... on get to roll again... and if i get another 1... I live.

 



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Final-Fan on 09 November 2008
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:

I don't see how that matters to my point, unless you think that illegal immigrants are more likely to be deadly when they drive drunk.  (If the "vehicular homicide" sub-crime-rate is 1/20 or any other fraction of the overall drunk driving crime rate, how does that affect the point I made in any way? [edit: the crime rate still goes up with the removal of a lower-crime-rate subpopulation, and it seems to me that the risk to any random individual (for untargeted crimes) goes up by definition.])
Re-read the odds in the D20.  It's actually very basic.

With more people in the city.  All drunk driving will be more deadly, yet the chances of you personally getting hit will be almost unchanged.

In the situation without the illegal immigrant, there are 2 drunk drivers.

You roll 1 D20, twice... and if you get a 1... your dead.

In the situation with the illegal immigrant there are 3 drunk drivers.

You roll 1 D20 three times... as does the immigrant.  If you get a 1... your dead.

UNLESS the immigrant ALSO rolls a 1 on the D20... AND rolls a higher initative then you.  (Flip of a coin.)

This is because most drunk drivers don't hit people.  Since it's untargeted and a "wrong place at a wrong time" type crime.

What about that doesn't make sense?

The part where the crime rate of a particular untargeted crime (the subcrime of vehicular manslaughter while driving drunk) goes UP and the chance of the same crime happening to a random individual goes DOWN.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Kasz216 on 09 November 2008
Final-Fan said:
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:

I don't see how that matters to my point, unless you think that illegal immigrants are more likely to be deadly when they drive drunk.  (If the "vehicular homicide" sub-crime-rate is 1/20 or any other fraction of the overall drunk driving crime rate, how does that affect the point I made in any way? [edit: the crime rate still goes up with the removal of a lower-crime-rate subpopulation, and it seems to me that the risk to any random individual (for untargeted crimes) goes up by definition.])
Re-read the odds in the D20.  It's actually very basic.

With more people in the city.  All drunk driving will be more deadly, yet the chances of you personally getting hit will be almost unchanged.

In the situation without the illegal immigrant, there are 2 drunk drivers.

You roll 1 D20, twice... and if you get a 1... your dead.

In the situation with the illegal immigrant there are 3 drunk drivers.

You roll 1 D20 three times... as does the immigrant.  If you get a 1... your dead.

UNLESS the immigrant ALSO rolls a 1 on the D20... AND rolls a higher initative then you.  (Flip of a coin.)

This is because most drunk drivers don't hit people.  Since it's untargeted and a "wrong place at a wrong time" type crime.

What about that doesn't make sense?

The part where the crime rate of a particular crime (the subcrime of vehicular manslaughter while driving drunk) goes UP and the chance of the same crime happening goes DOWN.

Vehicle Manslaughter wouldn't go up crime rate wise.

Vehicle Manslaughter goes down in relation to drunk driving in relation to population... and the risk would stay fairly standard per person per account.

Drunk Driving as a crime rate would go up... but vehicular manslaughter would definitly go down.  It's simple statistics.



Final-Fan on 09 November 2008
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:
Kasz216 said:
Final-Fan said:

I don't see how that matters to my point, unless you think that illegal immigrants are more likely to be deadly when they drive drunk.  (If the "vehicular homicide" sub-crime-rate is 1/20 or any other fraction of the overall drunk driving crime rate, how does that affect the point I made in any way? [edit: the crime rate still goes up with the removal of a lower-crime-rate subpopulation, and it seems to me that the risk to any random individual (for untargeted crimes) goes up by definition.])
Re-read the odds in the D20.  It's actually very basic.

With more people in the city.  All drunk driving will be more deadly, yet the chances of you personally getting hit will be almost unchanged.

In the situation without the illegal immigrant, there are 2 drunk drivers.

You roll 1 D20, twice... and if you get a 1... your dead.

In the situation with the illegal immigrant there are 3 drunk drivers.

You roll 1 D20 three times... as does the immigrant.  If you get a 1... your dead.

UNLESS the immigrant ALSO rolls a 1 on the D20... AND rolls a higher initative then you.  (Flip of a coin.)

This is because most drunk drivers don't hit people.  Since it's untargeted and a "wrong place at a wrong time" type crime.

What about that doesn't make sense?
The part where the crime rate of a particular crime (the subcrime of vehicular manslaughter while driving drunk) goes UP and the chance of the same crime happening goes DOWN.
Vehicle Manslaughter wouldn't go up crime rate wise.

Vehicle Manslaughter goes down in relation to drunk driving in relation to population... and the risk would stay fairly standard per person per account.

Drunk Driving as a crime rate would go up... but vehicular manslaughter would definitly go down.  It's simple statistics.

Hmm... I don't see it.  If I'm just lacking knowledge that would set me straight, I'm willing to learn, but you are certainly not required to teach me.  If you don't feel like it, I'm not prepared to simply bow to your knowledge on this one, so in that case it would be time to call it a day.  Wait!  See marker (@).

"Vehicle Manslaughter goes down in relation to drunk driving in relation to population"  I'm currently reading this as "VM down IRT (DD IRT POP)".  You are saying that (DD IRT POP) would go up and VM would go down.  I don't get why a greater percentage of the population driving around smashed would result in fewer people T-boning each other, unless you're implying a connection with population density.  Oh wait, now I see it as "(VM down IRT DD) IRT POP" since that would jive with my last sentence and make sense.  (@) Is this the case?



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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Kasz216 on 10 November 2008

I'm not sure what you mean by your last sentence.

Think of it this way.

1) Drunk Driving as a crime rate is higher in the country. Vehicular Homocide as a crime rate is higher in the city.

2) In canada they have about 44,443 cases of drunk driving with 692 of those leading to injury or death... and that's only the percentage of drunk drivers who have been caught.

3) If a drunk driver were to hit me tommorrow... and instead god/Dr. Who whatever pulls me out of the way... there is a very little chance anyone else is going to be hit by that car.

Vehicular Manslaughter isn't like robbery where if they don't rob you someone else will be robbed.



Final-Fan on 10 November 2008

So you ARE arguing that VM would go down because of a decrease in population density.

"Is this the case" ... that you're implying a connection with pop. density and/or that your statement was correctly interpreted by me as "(VM down IRT DD) IRT POP".

[edit:  And I have no idea why I was saying "vehicular manslaughter" instead of "vehicular homicide".  I was tired last night.  But a short check shows it to be a valid alternate term, so I probably saw it somewhere and copied it for some reason.]



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom!