| Final-Fan said: I don't see how that matters to my point, unless you think that illegal immigrants are more likely to be deadly when they drive drunk. (If the "vehicular homicide" sub-crime-rate is 1/20 or any other fraction of the overall drunk driving crime rate, how does that affect the point I made in any way? [edit: the crime rate still goes up with the removal of a lower-crime-rate subpopulation, and it seems to me that the risk to any random individual (for untargeted crimes) goes up by definition.]) |
Re-read the odds in the D20. It's actually very basic.
With more people in the city. All drunk driving will be more deadly, yet the chances of you personally getting hit will be almost unchanged.
In the situation without the illegal immigrant, there are 2 drunk drivers.
You roll 1 D20, twice... and if you get a 1... your dead.
In the situation with the illegal immigrant there are 3 drunk drivers.
You roll 1 D20 three times... as does the immigrant. If you get a 1... your dead.
UNLESS the immigrant ALSO rolls a 1 on the D20... AND rolls a higher initative then you. (Flip of a coin.)
This is because most drunk drivers don't hit people. Since it's untargeted and a "wrong place at a wrong time" type crime.
What about that doesn't make sense?
The rate that you are going to be in the "wrong place" is so low... that an additional 1 for 1 human shield isn't going to help because there is an equally low chance that said person will be at the "wrong place."
There is an extra 1 in 20 shot of you getting killed...
While there is a 1 in 400 chance of you and your shield both rolling a 1 at any time.
I mean... which of these options would your rather have...
I roll 1 D20 twice... and if I get a 1 on die.
Or I roll 1 D20 3 times... and if I get a 1... on get to roll again... and if i get another 1... I live.
