Okay, first the Wii's quarterly sales.

Q4 06 is incomplete, and is only November 19th to end of the year.

Q4 2006: 3.2M (2.13M monthly) - total  3.2M - 9.1M software

Q1 2007: 2.4M ( 0.8M monthly) - total 5.6M - 8.1M software - total 17.2M software

Q2 2007: 3.0M (1.0M monthly) - total 8.6M - 10.4M software - total 27.6M software

Q3 2007: 3.4M (1.13M monthly) - total 11.9M - 12.9M software - total 40.5M software

Q4 2007: 7.8M (2.6M monthly) - total 19.7M - 41.8M software - 82.1M software

2007 overall: 16.6M (1.38M monthly)

Q1 2008: 3.7M (1.23M monthly) - total 23.4M - 27.2M software - total 109.3M

Q2 2008: 5.4M (1.8M monthly) - total 28.8M - 34.1M - total 143.4M

(3 weeks left) Q3 2008: 3.3M (1.46M monthly) - 15.7M - total 159.1M

So from this data, I would say that the average for Wii owners is to buy 1 game every quarter (a little more than that) out of holiday. That is also true if you exclude the new buyers who get Wii Sports (which of course would be wrong, as they would have bouht a game anyway, and that probably wouldn't have lasted as long. At least not thinking of the Nintendo Channel data).

The amazing about that average, is that it stays fairly spot on. A little more than 5 games pr Wii a year. Not a lot of consoles keep the same average when the userbase increases. This means that it is likely to stay that way, and thus, when Wii gets an 80M userbase, they're going to buy 400-500M games a year.

There is one major short term issue because of this though - third party. This issue might turn long term.

Nintendo releases 5 (or more) games a year that appeal to everyone. This means that third parties have to fight against top notch Nintendo games, that also have a "head start" on the purchaser.

This is a problem they won't see at X360, Ps3, DS, Ps2 or PsP. If you release a third party game on Wii, you must do it knowing that you are only going to appeal to 10% (or maybe even less) of the Wii's userbase.

Of course the last paragraph isn't about the biggest games (although even they may be affected), but even the smaller big games might have a problem.

For instance.

A family is buying games. There are a few games they are interested in, and they are buying 5 games a year.

For them to buy Grand Theft Auto Wii, that game would have to outshine first Brawl, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, Super Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess.

Not only that, it would have to beat out the 5 new Nintendo games that have come out during the last year (assuming it is in 2009 or later).

Craap my keyboar broke. Ill post rest later

I read the whole post and lol'd hard. "Craap my keyboar broke ill post rest later". Cracks me up.

Good point about the third party games having to beat out Wii games. I'd always thought it was straight up demographics and never considered Nintendo's ridiculous first party strength.