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Forums - Sales - I'm tired of unfounded predictions

FishyJoe on 15 September 2008

I'm not going to argue with someone who can't/won't read.



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Desroko on 15 September 2008
FilaBrasileiro said:
FishyJoe said:
FilaBrasileiro said:
This is a videogame site to talk about videogame sales, and you expect people not to make predictions? If professionals get predictions wrong all the time, then people here should be allowed to be wrong as well, I don't see the reason for the whining.....

Did I say that? No. Try reading what I actually wrote.

 

 

You're whining about people making predictions on a site that is all about videogame sales.......

 

No, he's not. He's pointing out that many (most?) of the predictions are not supported by any evidenceor logic . It's just some dipsh*t saying "Console X will sell 100 million units by 2009" or "Console Y will die because Game X is coming out!!!" Or even worse, the classic "All my 15-year old friends love/hate this console/game..."

As you aptly pointed out, this is about sales. There is plenty of data that can be used to justify a prediction, but

A. Nobody wants to research

B. Nobody wants to give up on a cherished belief that is contradicted by reality

Instead we get fanboyisms, anecdotes, and sweeping generalizations.



outlawauron on 15 September 2008
Zucas said:
Predictions are opinions so you are going to get this. That's why I like to say the same thing about predictions that I do about opinions. Everyone is entitled to one but that doesn't mean everyone of them should be respected because some are better than others.

I agree. You (FishyJoe) sound like a robot spewing crap with an elitest anaylst attitude.

Everyone should be able to make whatever prediction they would like. You can just ignore the outlandish ones as we all have since the beginning of the site.



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johnlucas on 15 September 2008
coolestguyever said:
FishyJoe said:

Anyone can make a prediction. It takes no skill or knowledge. Being right or wrong isn't even the issue. You're not a better person when you make an unfounded prediction and it happens to be right. So there is no point in making prediction based purely on belief, other than to satisfy your own misguided ego.

So please, do us all a favor. Don't make predictions unless you can lay a solid foundation with facts and logic.

 


 Wii will sell 500 million worldwide by end of 2010

Hey. I already made that prediction. Well it's my potential max number and I said 'lifetime' but still.

John Lucas

 



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Alby_da_Wolf on 15 September 2008
FishyJoe said:
The thing I hate seeing is that certain people make tons of predictions. They use it to stroke their own ego. Some of the predictions wind up being right and they beat us over the head with it. When they're wrong they never admit it and even when confronted with it, they choose to ignore it.

How ingenuous! That's an old trick used by oil and tobacco multinationals too: they commission tons of researches, statistically there will be some with results favourable to their interests even if science already demonstrated the opposite, they keep only good (for them) results and ditch the others. One think tank famous for these so called studies is AdTI, famous for trying to demonstrate that linux was copied from minix (debunked by Tanenbaum himself), but they did also a research to demonstrate that passive smoking is harmless, for example.

 



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L.C.E.C. on 15 September 2008

I predict that this thread will die within a month.




FishyJoe on 15 September 2008

I don't advocate smoking, it's bad for you.



Squilliam on 15 September 2008

I don't advocate putting the ongoing results of a prediction in your signature.



Tease.

Cueil on 15 September 2008

Don't stop them... it's to fun!



 
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mike_intellivision on 15 September 2008

I wonder if Fishy is addressing the forum or the analyst community with this request.

Because with certain notable exceptions, most of the threads on here about sales are better than what the professionals put forth. And most of them are either intentionally exaggerated to make a point or are so obviously off-base that people find them amusing.

Mike from Morgantown



      


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