Just correcting, GTA was never a exclusive, but if sony or ms could hold it as a exclusive, then the winning logic would work.

 Yes it was. Sony paid Rockstar to give them exclusive rights to the GTA series for four years on the PS2 so that Microsoft couldn't get their hands on it. Sony could only fight the inevitable for so long.

Well the ps2 is the best console EVER :)

Or.. wait.. it could be.. just might be.. and don't hold me to this.. the fact that USA is in huge economical problems worse than the crack in the 30s, and the ps3 is the most expencive console to ever having outsold consoles so much cheaper than it.

Pwnd.

The wii might be outselling it. But at Twice the price point, the ps3 is still outselling the xbox360.

 The PS2 was the casual console last time, and it sold considerably well straight through to last year.  Very few of the casual fans and very few of the late adopters are going to jump to the PS3 so quickly, and since they were casuals and late adopters, it's also unlikely that they'll have any brand loyalty to Sony.  They may, as many have done, move on to the Xbox360 or Wii instead.  It was folly for Sony to ever believe that the PS3 would topple or even match the incredible sales of the PS2. 

I think the numbers game is pretty funny lately since I just don't see either the PS3 or Xbox360 reaching 40 million units in total sales.  Not that 40 million is bad by any stretch of the imagination.  The PS3's sales are up a bit this year over last, no doubt in large part to Blu-Ray slaughtering HD-DVD.  But I doubt it will continue into next year.  As every generation shows, the longer the system is on the market, the gradually less it sells.  Next year is very likely to see all 5 currrent machines selling below their numbers for this year.  The fact that some actually sold better this year over last year is phenominal, but will likely not become the norm through 2009-2011.  Sales will start tapering off for all consoles most likely around January~March 2009.  I wouldn't be surprised if both the Xbox360 and PS3 spend 2009 selling at roughly the same level that the PS3 did in 2007, which was often around 80,000 - 120,000 per month.

If we go by annual averages, the PS3 (now) sells about 682,000 per month, the Xbox360 sells about 625,000 per month and the Wii averages about 1,400,000 per month.  From now (Sep08) to Dec09, that adds 35,464,000 to the PS3, 32,500,000 to the Xbox360, and 72,800,000 to the Wii for end-of-2012 totals being:

PS3:  50.5 million.
Xbox360:  52.9 million.
Wii:  103.8 million.

This would indicate an industry growth from about 170* million total sold consoles to about 207 million total consoles sold.  But who knows?  Blu-Ray demand and Wii appealling more to core gamers over 2009/2010 could skew the numbers even higher.  These are just average estimates.  Also, it falls in line with my belief that the PS3 may not actually overtake the Xbox360.  Again, they [Sony] have two major things against them in that struggle:  They can't afford any more price drops in the immediate future while MS can, and the Xbox360 still has more exclusive 3rd party support and games.  Keep in mind that I have some doubts that the PS3 or Xbox360 will actually reach those numbers because the "average number" model is based on the ridiculous idea that demand never drops straight through to 2012.  Demand will drop.  Demand always drops.  Demand sometimes goes up, but afterwards, it usually drops to below the levels prior to the demand spike.

Going by averages, the PS3 may reach something around 17 million this year.  If there truly is an Xbox360 price drop for all models next week--and no drops for the PS3 as Sony has said, their holiday season will likely not be as good as Microsoft's.  Though, I agree that if GTA4 had remained a PS3 exclusive, it could have done wonders for PS3 sales.

*Includes Dreamcast numbers, estimated at 10 million.  PS2: 120 million, Xbox: 24 million, GC: 21 million.

The ps2 is hurting the sales of the ps3, YES
The ps2 is helping SONY, YES

Screw the younger brother [ps3], your father needs help [SONY].

i agre with you in alnmost everything, except that the ps3 will not reach x360 levels(surpassing it) and that this year is it´s peak. I htink that because of the 2009 announced games and the better sku caming, 2009 will be the best selling year for ps3, then will start to drop. Also, you gatta remember that this gen may sale 3 years after the next gen, just like the ps2. Though is guess work thinking wich will do it. And don´t say wii, cause I think next nintendo will be way better than wii, with BC and wii remores, so it´s very likely to kill wii sales once it´s out.