Ya ryt.. And you're friends are billionaire "analysts". What's up with that?

I think the idea that MS can just buy the industry in the future (which is what they'd need to do to really get all the key games away from Sony) is dependent upon two things that are probably not going to be true.

The first and most important one is that Microsoft will have billions coming in free and clear from their two monopolies (Windows and Office) for years to come, which will give them all the money in the world to throw away billions at a time on side projects (Zune, Video Games, Windows Marketplace ect). I think that is becoming less and less likely as companies like Google and Apple take huge chunks out of Microsofts monopoly monolith. Macs laptops are now the number one new laptops on college campuses after a big spike in sales (almost a doubling of sales over last year, and todays college kids are tomorrows business purchasing agents and home computer consumers) and they have, along with RIM, almost completely pushed Windows mobile out of the smartphone market. Google Aps and Open Office (with serious backing from a lot of companies including IBM most notably) are becoming more and more viable alternatives to paying 500 dollars for Office. Those programs will only get better not worse.

All that mixed with the Vista debachle which is pushing more and more away from Windows does not spell unlimited future funds for Microsoft. Currently Vista only has twice the market share of OSX (about 14% compared with a bit over 7%) which is tiny compared with the XP monolith. Given that almost all of Microsofts profits come just from Windows and Office, the slow adoption of Vista is a big deal.


The second mistaken assumption is that shareholders would rather have money spent on unprofitable ventures then given back in dividends. Even if somehow the Windows/Office money keeps rolling in that doesn't mean that money can be spent on the Xbox if that division keeps losing money (it only made a profit recently because they DIDN'T include the billion+ dollar price tag of the RROD repairs, with repairs included its still losing money hand over fist). Eventually investors start asking for dividends and insist money losing propositions be abandoned. That doesn't mean MS will leave video games entirely, but they may have to stick to being a publisher.

Pushing Sony out isn't trying to push Sega out. Sony isn't a company with just one profit center that can be killed through pushing on their console business. Sony has a lot more invested in games and HD then Microsoft does given that Sony makes tons of HD devices from receivers to TVs to blu rays to speakers while Microsoft just makes software and the 360. All they would accomplish even if they somehow did get Sony to exist would be to make Nintendo number one without a doubt.

If next xbox is going to have a repetition of these titles, how repetitive will it be. Surely, wii will win more hearts.

No, I doubt anybody would get those games exclusive anymore, considering last time these games were exclusive (refering to FF here):

- Nintendo had basically a iron grip on the market (NES and SNES era)
- Sony switched to a much more affordable media format (PS1) and had a stranglehold on the market (PS2).

So long as all 3 consoles are very competitive (like this gen) I don't see exclusivity going one way or another, except unless it was bought (and it'd need to be a HUGE sum)

FF Exclusive - SONY wouldn't let that happen worldwide. They own shares in the company, am sure they would do something. Am sure it will remain SONY exclusive in Japan, and at the most multi every where else.

MGS - Um... you mean "Metal Gear". And no, Kojima doesn't seem to want to let that happen.... not even for the 360.

GTA - Timed exclusive at best....

MGS will never become a MS exclusive.

FF will never become a MS exclusive.

GTA will possibly become a MS exclusive, or timed exclusive

That is the truth

On that list, the only game that has a chance of going exclusive to xbox is GTA but it's unlikely due to the extreme cost. M$ would have to pay for the potential sales on other consoles which is a lot of $$$ considering the status of GTA.

However, this is M$ and you never know but I think it is a mistake to stake one's success on 3rd party support as nintendo and sony have shown over the years. So if there were people with brains at M$, I'm sure they'll rather spend that money on 1st party offerings.

Unless the PS4 is somehow an horrible console with a 60% failure rate and that Microsoft captures most of the HD market, it won't happen.

As long as both Sony and Microsoft release comparable consoles, splitting the HD market in two, developers won't go for exclusivity (for HD games that is).