Good work Steven!

Informative thread.

While yes it is at a somewhat slow (but steady) pace most months, console wars are won and lost in big bursts. More ground can be gained and lost in a month between Thanksgiving and Christmas then in the entire rest of the year for instance. Also big release weeks make large dents, and there are a lot of those coming for the PS3 (I really think that Little Big Planet will be more of a game changer then MGS4 since it expands the audience in a much larger way).

The way it really seems to be is a weekly advantage of 30k to Sony with occasional jumps to 100k or more with big releases. If that continues (and price drops on the 360 don't seem to be changing much) the eventual 299 price drop and big releases will easily let the PS3 overtake the 360 by the end of next year when it will still matter. All thats left is the NA market, The PS3 is ahead of the 360 throughout the rest of the world.

Additionally the pace of PS3 sales have been accelerating rather profoundly, while the 360 sales have more or less stagnated (and will almost certainly decrease as the 360 hits its saturation point of around 30-35 million consoles at which point almost all of their core audience will have one just like with the original).

The only big weeks for the 360 on the horizon are GOW2 week and Fable 2 week. Unfortunately most of the audience for those two games bought a 360 long ago with Halo 3 or Gears of War One. There is no real week you can point to in the upcoming months and say "that will be a good week for the 360" while there are at least a half dozen of those weeks for the PS3.

Care to provide better way to predict future then(Yeah, KZ2 has one. Lets wish/believe in future which we want to happen. :D)?

I think that's what some peoples' problem with this thread is.

They see it as the OP trying to predict the future, whereas I think the OP is trying more to put things into perspective.

i.e. if you say the PS3 will be winning by this date, this is what sales it has to achieve.

They're making no claims as to what the sales will be, or might be, just what they'll need to be.

Some people just need to chill.

Why all this talk of stagnation 11 days before a major price cut? Can't you at least wait until after....

You nailed it Dr Punk. Some fanboys however don't like it when the facts don't add up to their wishes. If the OP had pulled the numbers out of his rear, I would have been all over him for making stuff up. He posted what he thought and numbers for what needed to happen for three sooner time frames. It comes down to this really, this is ultimately as sales site. The forum is going to be filled with various predictions. If you are going to attack someone save it for the posters that don't back up their predictions with information that can be independently verified.

What happened here is that PS3 fanboys didn't like his prediction. They ignored the fact that his numbers were accurate. Either that or they realized they couldn't attack his numbers and decided to troll the thread.

1. I never make a hard prediction -notice I say probably

2. It okay to say: "I don't agree, because of this, this, or this". It is not okay to call my numbers garbage or get outraged and accuse me of insulting a console.  Consoles don't have feelings. (Except for my Dreamcast, her name is Cassie and she is Dreamy. She is also very sensitive.)

3. Past numbers aren't being used to predict in my assumption.  I used them to show trends.  I think that the PS3 will continue to outsell the 360 at about the same because both consoles will have "weapons" in their "arsenal".  I don't think $199 trumps Bluray or that LBP will crush Gears 2.  They are all valid marketing tools under their own merits, and I think they just about level the field, when talking rate of change.

4. I am not saying that the rate will remain the same on a weekly basis for any of the analysis

This means, for the PS3 to catch the 360 it would take an average of that many per week.  Those numbers aren't predictions they are math.

5,460,000/(months*4)= amount.

Are people really this bad at understanding math?  It's just averages, not my opinions.

5. I don't see how my opinion can be taken as leaning against the PS3, I am predicting that the PS3 will out sell the 360 by forty thousand units per week.