Wow, a lot of people really, really want the PS3 to pass the 360 soon and don't want to look at the math at all.

Yes, it is impossible for the PS3 to pass the 360 in 2008. And it's unlikely to happen in 2009 as well.

Without reading this (other than your OP), you have made one major flaw.

It's not units you need to track, it %. Track %, and then see at what volume (40 million, 50 million, whatever) they will match, and then independently figure out when they will hit that value.
You can’t go just by raw numbers, as volume is low at the moment compared to 4th quarter.

Kyros said: you said his numbers were "garbage". I didn't say the numbers were garbage. I said the assumptions he made (will stay the same) for his "most likely" scenario are garbage. So this is also garbage. His mathematics may be correct. His interpolation of the future is garbage.

So in other words, it comes down to the "your guess his better than the OPs" rationale I mentioned earlier. So his assumptions and scenarios are garbage because they don't coincide with your own?

Not at all. I didn't guess anything. I didn't say that the Ps3 would win. Let's suppose the 360 gets a hugely successful motion accessory perhaps it wins. Who knows. I don't, the OP doesn't ...

But simply extrapolating from the past is complete bullshit at this point in the race and about as effective as astrology.

If you want MY personal guess I would say that the game changes completely once the PS3 is at say 250, 200 dollars . But that's my guess nothing more and I wouldn't make a thread about it.

Kyros my whole issue with your response to the OP comes down to this. You responded to his post like it was a one line trollish remark. He took the time to break down multiple scenarios and actually provided verifiable statistical numbers.

I respect the fact that you disagree with his opinion. Heck all of the incorrect suppositions by industry analyst prior to this gen supports your point of view. It shows that predicting the future is a crap shoot at best, but I am not gonna roast a guy for saying he believes something will happen when provides a detailed explanation as to why.

Ps3 is the best console. X360 is for Jews.

You're leaving out the spike that comes every holiday. Last year both consoles sold around 3.5 million over November and December alone:

http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons[]=PS3&cons[]=X360®[]=Total&start=39390&end=39453

Assuming the ps3 continues to outsell the 360 by a similar percentage over the coming holiday as it has over the beginning of the year, then the ps3 could shave off almost a million of the 360's lead over this November and December alone.

And then there's the '09 Holiday season to think about as well...

I still believe that the ps3 will pass up the 360 in total consoles sold by the end of 2009.

Darc Requiem said: Kyros my whole issue with your response to the OP comes down to this. You responded to his post like it was a one line trollish remark. He took the time to break down multiple scenarios and actually provided verifiable statistical numbers. I respect the fact that you disagree with his opinion. Heck all of the incorrect suppositions by industry analyst prior to this gen supports your point of view. It shows that predicting the future is a crap shoot at best, but I am not gonna roast a guy for saying he believes something will happen when provides a detailed explanation as to why.

I would even go one step further and say that the OP simply put the numbers on the table, showed a timeline based on extrapolation, then asked for an honest discourse.  He got a few really good comments, but mostly just insults from those who don't like anything that even hints at the PS3 having to clear large hurdles to pass the 360.

I've just started ignoring most of these posters as very little of what they post actually provides any useful information.

 

makingmusic476 said: You're leaving out the spike that comes every holiday. Last year both consoles sold around 3.5 million over November and December alone: http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons[]=PS3&cons[]=X360®[]=Total&start=39390&end=39453 Assuming the ps3 continues to outsell the 360 by a similar percentage over the coming holiday as it has over the rest of the year, then the ps3 could shave off almost a million of the 360's lead over this November and December alone. And then there's the '09 Holiday season to think about as well... I still believe that the ps3 will pass up the 360 in total consoles sold by the end of 2009.

 

The key word is bolded.

crumas2 said: makingmusic476 said: You're leaving out the spike that comes every holiday. Last year both consoles sold around 3.5 million over November and December alone: http://vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons[]=PS3&cons[]=X360®[]=Total&start=39390&end=39453 Assuming the ps3 continues to outsell the 360 by a similar percentage over the coming holiday as it has over the rest of the year, then the ps3 could shave off almost a million of the 360's lead over this November and December alone. And then there's the '09 Holiday season to think about as well... I still believe that the ps3 will pass up the 360 in total consoles sold by the end of 2009.   The key word is bolded.

 

There goes the whole thread...