JaggedSac said: * 12 months it would take 113k per week. * 18 months it would take 75k per week. * 24 months it would take 57k per week. These are facts based on the current number of consoles.

 

Ah.

CAL4M1TY said: I agree with you steven787, and I've always said to those who claimed that PS3 would over take 360 next year to be kidding themselves, as the only possibility would be if 360 sales were around or close to ZERO for the entire year. I think people are failing to understand that PS3 needs to be 100,000k + average ABOVE the 360 for it to overtake it by next year, it made just 10,000k over the 360 last week, so you'd think it'd be obvious the overtaking wouldn't be for awhile but nope, they (PS3 fanboys) don't seem to notice that. Perhaps now these crazy PS3 fanboys will understand that, whilst it'll probably overtake eventually, it won't be until after 2009. Will it matter? probably not, because the generation will be in it's final third and the difference will be so small that non-paid for exclusives will only come from loyalty as opposed to cost/sales reasons.

 

Once again, you can't ignore the holiday season.

If the ps3 and 360 were only going to sell 100-150k a week for the rest of the year, I'd agree with you.  Considering the fact that the 360 sold 3.4 million over November and December of last year alone, I don't.

The PS3 will have another MGS4-level push in Japan when FF13 arrives, and for Europe, GT5 will give a boost. Of course, if PS3 undercuts Bluray players, it'll have a huge boost too.

^^@makingmusic476^^

The holiday season will skew things in favor of the PS3, but the holiday season should be close enough as to not completely make the analysis useless. We are talking years here. It will still be late 2009 or early 2010 no matter what happens this holiday.

Also, we can always redo the analysis after the holidays.

xman said: KZ2 said: Ps3 in December 2008 sells worldwide 6 million consoles to X360 1 million consoles for December 2008 = 5 million gain to the Ps3 puts Ps3 in front of the X360. Gap to November should fall to 4.5 million lead to X360 over Ps3. 4.5 million - 5 million = 0.5 million lead to Ps3 over X360 by Xmas 2008.   Yeah right Santa is making and dropping them off if they sell 6 million...lol

The prediction yeah I stand by that prediction. PS3 should be in front of X360 by Jan 1, 2009.

 

Long thread already, but my 2 cents are that Holiday seasons make or break momentum. I think alot of people are going to be surprised by the PS3 this holiday season. I just think the time is right for the system this year, and with that kind of gas in the tank they should be able to keep a good sell through until the release of God of War III, Final Fantasy XIII (in Japan as an exclusive) and Gran Turismo 5 for next year.

Plus, as someone else said, typically the 3rd year of a console is its strongest sales wise, and that would put 360s strongest year as this one, and the PS3's as 2009. Seeing the 360 fall back and the PS3 jump forward.

But I like the post, at least someone is using math and not their E-Penis around here. :)

Personally I think this is a stupid Arguement. The OP's numbers are dead on, BUT I think he picked a poor time to put them together. Come january we should have a much clearer sense of where things stand. For instance if the 360 lead is down to around 3 mil or less by the end of the year. I think it would be safe to say that the likelyhood will be that the PS3 will catch and pass the 360 in '09. if it's nowehre close to the 3 mil range, than I think 20010 is more likely. The numbers are on, but I honestly think the timing might be off to present the numbers. just way too many factors to come. Again I honestly think the picture will be much clearer one way or the other after the holidays. But Hey i love these types of threads because i always know someone will be eating some Crow in the future.

I agree with that if the PS3 does pass the 360 it will take so long it won't even matter. I think sony's idea of a ten year console will cause them to be devistated when the next xbox comes out.

Yes if the market is as stable as DS vs. PSP which are in the second half of their life-cycle.

That's not the case for the home consoles. Wii and PS3 are 18months old. The PS3 still costs 400$ and christmas will be around soon. Last September the 360 outsold the PS3, the Ps3 had nothing to play and did cost 600$. A couple games a new SKU and a price cut later and the PS3 outsold the 360 during christmas. Predicting the future by past results would have been as stupid then as now.

Kyros said: Looking at past numbers can and does serve as a good predictor of future results. Yes if the market is as stable as DS vs. PSP which are in the second half of their life-cycle. That's not the case for the home consoles. Wii and PS3 are 18months old. The PS3 still costs 400$ and christmas will be around soon. Last September the 360 outsold the PS3, the Ps3 had nothing to play and did cost 600$. A couple games a new SKU and a price cut later and the PS3 outsold the 360 during christmas. Predicting the future by past results would have been as stupid then as now.

 

Sheesh, he just wanted a discussion about it, and to start a discussion, the best way is to provide a way forward.  You keep talking about the way he did it, and what's wrong with this way, while the TS just wanted a discussion about how things are looking for Sony / Microsoft.

You CAN make predictions (hell, predictions are prone to being wrong, but that doesn't stop people from making them), based on what you know and what you PREDICT will happen in the future.  One could be wrong the next week, or one may actually have predicted it completely correctly. 

What you are saying is "don't predict, it's stupid, because you can't predict things that are not susceptible to predicting".

As other people have said: Stay out of the thread if you don't like it.

(and oh noooooo, I copiedzorz your entire postz..... PANICZ!!!1!!)