I am a big fan of the Wii and certainly think it will win this gen hands down. However, I do have a slight problem with some of the more optimistic predictions for lifetime sales of the Wii that appear on this site; my problem is the math.

Even if Nintendo can sell every Wii they can make (a very optimistic premise), they are limited by the length of this gen and their production capacity. If this gen lasts 48 more months (also optimistic, I am told) and capacity stays at 2.4 million per month, then the max wii sold would be 146 million.

So my question to every poster who has ever predicted more than 146 million lifetime sales for the Wii is how long do you think it will sell for and do you think Nintendo will up capacity again?

Yea if it continues to sell out and they are forced to increase production again then yes it can sell more. But I do not think it will sell more than around 140mil before they release a new Wii 2.

The Wii will continue to see (strong) sales until 2014/2015 because third party support will continue because of the low development costs and large residual userbase, and people will continue to buy Wii systems after it is replaced because it will be very inexpensive.

The Wii will not sell more than 100 million. Maybe after its predecessor but not this generation. If the Wii can sell over 65 million units that'll be good enough since the NES (their most sold console WW so far) sold about 60 or so.

Wii hasn't peaked yet. It might be able to do 35m in a year (~3m/month) as DS did 30m+ in a year and Wii is tracking ahead of DS and is more dependent on the bigger, western regions. Wii hasn't had a price drop yet either.

Wii could do 100m shipped in four years, vs. 4 years 9 months for DS, and 5 years 9 months for PS2.

As long as the Wii passes 100m. I'll be satisfied.

2008 doesn't seem to be the Wii's peak year either. 2009 looks like a 20m+ year.

2009/2010 will be the peak years, thats when we get tje combination of great first party and third party games

 By next christmas you will be eating so much crow for this prediction it just ain´t funny being you, unless you were being sarcastic.

1. Since the Wii will be the unquestionable gen leader and have 100m+ sales it will have the 10yr+ lifespan, similar to its predecessors.

2. Nintendo could increase supply again, if needed to 3m+/month. Although, I think 2.5m will be highest they do as they will reach a balance after the holidays.

Personally I see anywhere from 120m to 150m LTD.

Till 100 million.