Killzone 2 sales prediction

Jandre002

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Jandre002 on 23 August 2008

Seriously, Killzone 1 is completely irrelevant when comparing to Killzone 2. Killzone 2 is entirely different, and its going to sell for lots of other reasons.

IMO this and MGS4 are the only games I can look at that really justify paying $399 for a console. If you showed me these games back in 2005 I wouldn't believe it was possible. The same can't be said about any other games, except maybe Gears 1/2, Resistance 2, and LBP.

The graphics ALONE will justify purchasing this game for lots of people, but the gameplay is looking extremely well on top of that. In Killzone 2, I think Sony has found its answer to the Halo franchise. If Gears 2 can 7-8million lifetime, I don't see why Killzone 2 won't be able to pull at least 4,000,000 since the install base of both consoles will be almost identical by then.

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BringBackChrono on 23 August 2008

500-600k first week
2.5 million lifetime

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selnor

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selnor on 23 August 2008

800,000 first week.

3.2 million Lifetime.

CrazzyMan

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CrazzyMan on 23 August 2008

3 mln. first 10 weeks.
5-7 mln. LTD.

Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.

Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

jerseyboy609

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jerseyboy609 on 23 August 2008

i love xbox360 said:

Marty8370 said:
900,000- 1.4 million first week, over 7 million lifetime.

haha so this is going to sell nearly as many as halo 2&3 i dont think so. this game will be big but its not that big (killzone 1 wasnt that big)

well, gears of war sold 900k+ in week one on a small install base and went on to sell 5.2mil, then I think that KZ2 will sell at least a million, and without a doubt in my mind will go on to sell at least 6 million, just like MGS4

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tombi123 on 23 August 2008

MGS4 sold to 12% of the PS3 userbase first week. If Killzone 2 did the same (assuming a 23M userbase) it would sell 2.76M first week.

I don't think it will get the same percentage as MGS4 though because:

As the userbase expands, attach rates decrease.
It doesn't have a particularly dedicated fan base, and certainly not as dedicated as MGS.
People are more uncertain about the quality of this title, so will be more hesitant to buy straight away.

What it will have though, is a lot of hype and a huge marketing campaign (I assume), the best looking console game and it looks to be a quality title. To reach 1M first week (assuming a 23M userbase) it would need to sell to just over 4% of the userbase. I think that is garenteed even with average reviews.

To reach my estimate of 1.5M sales, it would need to sell to just under 7% of the userbase. This is certainly possible with great reviews and good marketing.