TheSource said: I'm not sure about PSN and XBLA but I would bet NPD has some estimates on how "big" the WiiWare and VC market is since alot of people buy Wii Points from retail stores.

 

sure, but they can find the same about XBL, as there are Microsoft points too. However, those don't provide any info on actual games sales, and you can buy points directly from Nintendo via credit card. So overall, I would say they really don't know that much at all.

Complete or accurate is probably a better word than credible. Credible makes it seem like you question the data that is collected which it doesn't seem you do. But yes, having some clear, at-a-glance way to track downloads would be good.

mrstickball said: hanafuda said: Before anyone gets frisky, this doesn't only apply to VG Chartz - it applies to most sources that log this kind of data for a living. However, seen as game charts are the main purpose of this site, I think it is a valid discussion to have here. Over the last week or so I have spent most of my console gaming time playing PixelJunk Eden, Warhawk, Bionic Commando Rearmed, and Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - all of which are either download only or users have the option to download them as opposed to buying the boxed product. I'm sure I'm not the only person in this situation. The Wii, 360, and PS3 all have some kind of service for the sale of downloadable games. However, no data for downloadable games is tracked by this site. Every now and again someone will post news about dowload figures for Xbox Live titles, but even so these figures aren't added into the main sales charts. Why not? Now I know that actually getting the sales data for such downloadable games is probably very difficult without going via the hardware manufacturers themselves, but at the same time it's not as if the figures for boxed product games are 100% accurate either - they are just estimates based on data samples from vendors in the supply chain. If you can't get the figures direct from the manufacturers, surely they could be estimated via some other method? For example, most of these games have online ranking, so you should be able to tell the number of players with the game based on the ranking data. So, the question is, how much longer is it before we start to see data from download games in the charts here?   Go check the news articles. I've been posting XBLA sales numbers for almost a year now. VGC is the ONLY place in the entire world, aside from MS HQ that your going to get any XBLA numbers. Digital download sales are virtually impossible to track unless you are an insider at every studio that sells games, and you get to see their finances, or work with the DD service itself, and work either as an exec, or sales team member. Outside of that, no one has numbers. No one. Ever seen a Steam sales chart with numbers? Stardock? PSN? It's rare that companies would give out this information, since their rivals may use it against them. Most use vague numbers and figures that lack any hard data to explain how certain titles are doing 'Steam goes over 15 million members' 'Nintendo says 10 million VC titles sold' - Figures like that, that have no real weight in the world of sales analysis, since there's no data for individual games, or statements made over a specific time period. NPD, GTK, Chart Track, nor anyone else actually has access to these numbers. They're virtually powerless, since there is no retail store that can give them sales numbers - there is only 1 retail store per distribution point, and it's owned and operated by whomever runs the service (Valve, MS, Nintendo, Sony, ect).   Heck, I'll give you an easy one: Go find sales data for InstantAction.com, which is a browser based DD service that I work for. I'll give you $20 if you can find ANY quotes about actual sales for the service. Chances are, your not going to get my $20.

Is reading comprehension a big problem for members here? I know the XBLA figures are posted, which is why i specifically referred to it. Why are those figures not incorporated into the charts? Also, if VG Chartz has exclusivity on this, why can the same method not be used for Nintendo and Sony? Finally, if the only way to get the data IS by dealing direct with the big 3, then surely negotiations could be made to get the figures directly.

I don't really care for your attitude. Maybe you should educate yourself on what exactly we're providing here for you -- free of charge, I might add. To say that our numbers are not credible because we do not offer what no one has and what is virtually impossible to obtain is a foolish statement.

They are posted as their own charts because the data is collected via very different means, so it doesn't make sense to mix them. The data is eventually going to be integrated into the games database as well, as someone else already mentioned. And I'm not sure why you think any of the big three would enter "negotiations" with us to give away their data. We're very up-front with our methods and quite frankly you seem pretty ignorant of the business as a whole.

Trying to discredit VGChartz over something that no one else does is quite childish.

Is reading comprehension a big problem for members here? I know the XBLA figures are posted, which is why i specifically referred to it. Why are those figures not incorporated into the charts? Also, if VG Chartz has exclusivity on this, why can the same method not be used for Nintendo and Sony? Finally, if the only way to get the data IS by dealing direct with the big 3, then surely negotiations could be made to get the figures directly.

Did you bother reading the methodology pages for either the WiiWare/VC Charts, or XBLA Charts?

Numbers are derived from extrapolating specific metrics. For PSN, there are no viable metrics to garner sales from, unlike the XBLA/Gamercard system I use for XBLA sales. For WiiWare/VC, DKII uses another different kind of method to extrapolate sales, but unlike my gamercard system, it's very limited in what it can offer for size and scope.

Why do you think that the big 3 would want to give us access to their DD sales records? Its very sensitive information, and in our hands, would be of great benefit to their competitors. Thats why Major Nelson has only given out very broad and general statistics for XBLA, and XBL sales - They never go into specifics because it may endanger certain contracts, and give Nintendo or Sony an advantage. The same can be said for Nintendo and Sony - when was the last time ANY of them gave a good breakdown by game? They obviously could: In Nintendo's case, they manufacture and produce the DS carts for every game (from my knowledge), yet have never provided information about those games.

 

we track 2 out of 4 services. We are half there. WE are credible.

DKII said: I don't really care for your attitude. Maybe you should educate yourself on what exactly we're providing here for you -- free of charge, I might add. To say that our numbers are not credible because we do not offer what no one has and what is virtually impossible to obtain is a foolish statement. They are posted as their own charts because the data is collected via very different means, so it doesn't make sense to mix them. The data is eventually going to be integrated into the games database as well, as someone else already mentioned. And I'm not sure why you think any of the big three would enter "negotiations" with us to give away their data. We're very up-front with our methods and quite frankly you seem pretty ignorant of the business as a whole.

Educate myself on what you are providing here, free of charge?  What is it that I don't understand?  Also, being able to view the site may be free of charge, but it's not like the site is a charity or anything.  It's possible to get access to a lot of the same figures from other sources without having to view some banner of some generic asian chick offering adult goods for sale...

I never said the numbers on the site are not credible.  The business as a whole is changing.  Revenue from downloadable software is on the up with every passing day.  This site, and other such sources (yet again I stress I'm not just talking about VG Chartz) simply aren't covering this properly.

Still, if this data is "virtually impossible to obtain", then I guess there's no point discussing it.

"VG Chartz is the only tracking service in the world dedicated to providing point-of-sale retail estimates of worldwide videogame buying trends to the public for free, only we don't yet cover download software because the data is virtually impossible to obtain.".  Doesn't sound so impressive.

I'm simply saying that download games are getting bigger every day, and data for these games needs to be tracked going forward.  It is quickly becoming a significant part of the industry.  Simply saying that it is impossible to do this doesn't progress things.  Also, it's pretty contradictory seen as there are already attempts to do it, like with the XBLA figures.

I'm ignorant of the business as a whole?  Really, why is that?

Overall, the timeliness and flexibility of the data in this site is superb, but to take things to the next level and keep up with the current climate, data for downloadable software has to be included.

 

 

And again, the issue is that the ways you can track DD sales is very difficult.

You have to have a reliable system that is built-in by the manufacturer that can some way, allow you to see, on a high level, how many people have played game X in some way or fashion.

Again, for XBLA, I use gamercards that show actual # of purchasing users (via my own methods), then extrapolate to what the market should be at.

For WiiWare/VC, the amount of time that's spent on various game(s), and that is calculated into sales figures.

May I ask you: How do YOU expect VGC to track DD sales? You can pine on about how they need to, but what systems are in place that it can be tracked? My XBLA charts have literally revolutionized the tracking of XBLA titles, and my methods, and results are a YEAR ahead of the biggest tracking firm in America - NPD, or any other tracking firm. Yet despite my genius with XBLA, I can tell you rather quickly: There isn't an easy way to do it for PSN, and I'm surprised that DKII even has a method for VC/WW.

Even then, the only way to track PSN data will be through PSN trophies, and home *if* there's a way to obtain high level, aggregate data using websites and building crawlers vs. any other method, because leaderboards do not always work. That's a big if for PSN data, and even then, it'll take a while to get a comprehensive list for such data.

And the final way you can do it is simply build a huge consumer sampling base, and poll them each month to find out what new products they've bought. This is the ONLY way NPD is doing the data, and their sample size is so abysmally low (somewhere in the low 10,000's) that they won't be very reliable.

Remember: You can argue that VGC should track DD sales, but no one else is doing it. VGC is the FIRST website EVER to have any sort of comprehensive list for ANY DD market...And that was thanks to my methodology, and work I put in...

Mind you, I'm not trying to go on and on about my virtues - the point is that I'm some random VGC schmoe that developed the holy grail of DD information gathering, by finding Microsoft's back door into exploiting their gamercards. That little slice of data has got me a job in the video games industry, more and more job offers, and multiple Emails and interviews with Microsoft going as high as trying to get me to become the next XBLA general manager ---- All over some simple DD charts I made! Why is all of that info important? It shows how difficult DD sales are to come by, and how difficult it is to find any information on sales.

I went "huh?" at your disclaimer paragraph and it's double standard.

Anyway, VGCz isn't my site but they do make public how they get their numbers - it's amazing that the method works, specially with software.

As for downloadable games I know the staff here does their best to publish all manner of sales data; this is proven by the attempt at tracking VC and Wiiware sales by using the information from Nintendo Channel and Nintendo (To the extent of how many Wii's are online and how many of those Wii's register with Nintendo Channel.)