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Forums - Sales Discussion - Console Sales Estimates by the end of 2007 - UPDATED

 

Here is the new estimates data based on 2007 performance for each console, but in simplified numbers this time. All the numbers below are in MILLIONS; and the data is based on last 1 month, last 2 months, last 3 months, and 2007 overall averages, out of which minimum and maximum figures were obtained .

 

 For comparison, here is a simplified version of the last month's (ending June 3rd) figures (ignoring the details of the Other regions).

 

 

We see on the new data that according to the first half of the year, the Wii will have taken the lead by the end of year, though wont be able to surpass 15 mil. X360 will finish at 12 million something while PS3 will be responsible fo 5-6 million consoles delivered. This all doesnt come as a shock honestly, but there are a few points to state after 1 month...

 - The discrepancy between the minimum and maximum amounts have considerably decreased, especially regarding the PS3, particularly due to the vanishing effect of the European PS3 launch. The maximum PS3 estimates have decreased from 6.78 mil to 5.97 mil (from 3.26 to 2.09 in Others Region), while the minimum has slightly increased from 4.84 to 4.93).

- The Wii estimates have decreased from  14.46-15.03 to 14.32-14.54 while X360 saw a "low" minimum, decreased from 12.30-12.78 to 11.97-12.44 .   On the whole, all console sales estimates decreased.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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Ok, but I think you cannot predict the end of year sales by just taking the momthly averages.
First of all there will be a huge holiday boost. (If Nintendo is holding 0.5 M a month aside for December you can already add about 3.5 M to your number, assuming they increased production from June. Also the 360 and PS3 will sell at least double the current monthly figures during the holiday season.)
You also didn't incorporate boosts from software launches, I can amagine that Halo 3 will generate a boost in 360 sales. Wii won't really get boosts as long as they're supply contrained, but will probably supply some more at the Metroid 3 release.

I predict Wii around 18M, X360 around 15 M and the PS3 around 6.5 M. 



yea..these are really really inaccurate, not counting the holiday is like..forgetting the apples in an applepie



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!


 


+1 neos

Time to Work !

If you haven't included the holiday sales boost into the numbers, consider that in Q4 40% to 60% of hardware and software sales are made.

This means you should see the yearly sales of (roughly) 15 to 24 times the average monthly (out of holiday) sales ... 



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I agree with all of you guys about the various sales spikes within year but this is why we have a min-max interval. I first realised this estimate one month ago, and nothing unusual has changed in favor of an increase, in contrast, all consoles have seen drops in their estimates. And those spikes affect only a couple of months of the remaining year, which wont affect 2007 drastically without the safety intervals, but maybe in 2008.

So you are an optimist, consider the max. But I am pretty sure, for example, that PS3 will not exceed the maximum estimate since it is based on "2007 average" which includes the exceptionary high European launch sales data.
This is also pretty much the same for the wii, because the max estimate is based on the 3 monthly average, while the minimum is based on the last month's average, so the trend shows a decline. Its pretty clear that X360 cant go anywhere beyond 12 million anyway.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Things can and will change in case of price drops though, but I am not sure to what extent this will affect the sales, which we will sit and see. (Though I might be too busy in the army then, lol).



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

your estimates for x360 and ps3 = worst scenario.

p.s. you shouldn`t have posted this before E3. =))



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

I do no agree with crzzzyman. Its a good thing you posted these before E3 but they are still awful predictions.



Thanks everyone for posting their Console Sales Estimates.

I think the PS3 will pick up their sales around Christmas with GTA IV, Smackdown vs. Raw 2008 and early 2008 with MGS4.