nice to see you stick by your guns John Lucas, it will be sad to see you miss out when you were so close.

I can see Dragon Quest Swords enticing Nintendo to put a few more Wiis out there but somehow I don't think it will move an extra 490k Wiis all by itself, and I don't see any other releases in July that will get Nntendo to increase supply. 'm absolutely 100% sure that the demand is there to beat the 360 by July, I just don't see Nintendo shipping enough consoles.

but, we'll find out whether you were right or not at the end of July

Maybe Nintendo is stockpiling for times when there is no games coming out to better judge demand. How can they judge demand for a console when there is a new game release.... is it the console or the game people want? Now would be the perfect time to release a stockpile of wiis to the US if Nintendo was trying to decide if it should increase production again or not.

^ no way.

Ok, you couldn't find a reference either...  so I did some checking...  it was further back when wii had to be adjusted up significantly.  However, the time when wii had to be adjusted down 6% for the month, the 360 had to be adjusted down 41%!

http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=356

think that the wii outselfs the xbox 360, then when halo arrives they sell almost equal, when the hype around halo 3 is over and metriod arrives wii will sprint onward leaving just smoke for the 360

moe, metroid is in august, which is 1 month before Halo launch, so no, they will never get equal again

As for you John, you're totally right July will move alot more Wii units, but what you have in thought is a bit too optimistic. In any way, atleast we can say WHEN it's gonna surpass, not IF. That should bring some relief right?

Honestly, a lot of people here seem to forget about the other markets. There is not just the US, there are also Europe and Japan.

Let´s say the Wii outsells the 360 by 20k every week in the US, by 30k in Europe/others and 60k in Japan, the 360 would have to sell 110k units more in the US and Europe when Halo 3 is released to even stop losing ground.

sure, Halo will sell a lot of consoles, but will it sell 110k more in one week? As far as I know, the gamers who wanted Halo already bought a 360, as they are Harcore Gamer?

I think one week of 360 outselling Wii is possible. Maybe even two. But it clearly won´t catch up 500k units or so. Maybe 50k.

you're right somehow jlauro, but the others are talking about european numbers while you are talking about NA numbers, that's where the confusion comes from.

I still hold my sig to be truth. Unfortunately I don't think the Wii will sell a ton more when DQ:Swords launches because there are no more Wii's to be had at the moment. So, in the end unless there is a major change in the number of Wii's released to the market, by end of August.

Not true at all.  7 or 8 months in, a lot of people were reporting problems.  In fact, the first week after release people were having lockup issues and the power supply units given at launch were found to be inadequate.  Microsoft has had different problems all cycle with the 360, and some Best Buy manager said that MS increasing their warranty to 12 months saved them from drowning in warranties.  The same manager suggested the PS3 and Wii have a failure rate of less than 1% (which wouldn't surprise me).

Also, the 360 hasn't suffered much yet due to its reliability.  A very small minority of perspective buyers are aware of the situation, and most owners aren't either.  The ones with failures think they're simply unlucky.  This *will* hit the mainstream media and *will* become an issue for Microsoft regardless of how they handle it from this point out.  There will simply be too many failures and repeat failures for the 10 million units currently on the market. 

As far as Wii stockpiling is concerned: I don't understand the logic. Can someone please explain it to me?  Why would Nintendo pile consoles up in a warehouse somewhere when they could be:

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(1) selling those units to people who desparately want them, giving them more free marketing (people who see the Wii want the Wii) and giving them a bigger lead in the console war.

(2) Attracting third parties to their platform with a larger installed base and more sold software. 

(3) Units sold at Christmas will be purchased by mothers and whoever else as gifts, and will negatively affect attach rates for a while.  Selling now makes more sense.

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I can see people saying, "we're only seeing about 1 million units per month being sold world wide, and Nintendo said it would be higher -- where are the units going?"  Perhaps Nintendo has had problems with manufacturing.   The second problem is that there are some markets where the Wii isn't selling out (various cities within the US).  Those are Wii traps -- the Wiis go in but they don't get sold.  As Nintendo fills those Wii traps, they'll be shipping more units to the places that are still selling out, so sales may increase slightly month-over-month if for no other reason.

Did Nintendo ever stockpile DS lites?  If they haven't, then why would they stockpile Wiis?