Nintendo will be releasing Q1 numbers later this month (and Microsoft and Sony as well, but they're not supply constrained), maybe it will cause some adjustments to the other territory numbers that could just get Microsoft in range for the end of July. But if there are no adjustments to the figures because of NPD / Q1 numbers 1.28M seems to much to overcome. Btw, 8.85M means Nintendo is exactly 3M above the amount of consoles they sold at the end of march, so they at least managed to deliver 1M consoles every month.

Starless said: OriGin said: SNIP Nintendo has DQ: Swords in Japan on the 12th (of July).

 Hmmmm that'll b interesting to say the least, will Nintendo feed some more hardware for the release of that? I doubt that much more to make enough of a difference, unless the supply for the entire month goes up more than the recent months.

ioi said: http://digg.com/nintendo_wii/Wii_sales_are_now_just_1_28_million_behind_Xbox360_worldwide

ok, who stole my words? =p

 

IMO, we need to wait until Nintendo shipment figures are out to base a good opinion on. Last time around, VGChartz tracked the Wii about 200-300k units too high in the others market. It could be that way again.

I'm not trying to be negative or anything - The Wii has done a great job. IMO, I'm still predicting a late August, Early September when it finally catches up.

Either Nintendo is holding back consoles or the "ramping up production to 1.5 million a month" article from a while back was a bunch of hooey.

mrstickball said: IMO, we need to wait until Nintendo shipment figures are out to base a good opinion on. Last time around, VGChartz tracked the Wii about 200-300k units too high in the others market. It could be that way again. I'm not trying to be negative or anything - The Wii has done a great job. IMO, I'm still predicting a late August, Early September when it finally catches up.

Do you have a reference? My memory isn't the greatest, but I thought it was the other consoles that were tracked too high, and wiis were tracked too low???  (maybe I am thinking back more than a month)

omgwtfbbq said: Well John Lucas, it's crunch time ;). If we take the end of July to be the last week with any days in July in it (ie, the week ending 5th of August, which I believe is also NPD July. Which I suppose could be plausible depending on which week Sunday is counted in, as I assume most Wiis are sold on Sunday), then the Wii has 5 weeks to sell 1.28 Million more units than the Xbox. To do so, it needs to outsell the Xbox by 256k units per week. Last week the Wii sold 70k in Japan 93k in USA, and 64k in Others, for a total of 227k. This will net them 1.135 Million consoles, or dropping 145k units short. Of course, this is assuming that no Xboxes sell, however, last week they sold 3k in Japan, 44k in America, 22k in Others for a total of 69k in a week or 345k over the period of a month. Meaning at last week's rate Nintendo will fall 490k units short. You did pretty well with your prediction (I don't know when you made it, but I'm pretty sure it was a long time ago, way back when everyone was discounting the Wii, so it's quite impressive you got this close) but I'm afraid it looks like the Wii will overtake the Xbox360 in August (most likely, the same week that Metroid Prime 3 is released). To be honest, I'm a bit disappointed in Nintendo's abaility to ship Wiis, they're still selling out yet Nintendo isn't even selling 1 million per month. What happened to the extra manufacturing capacity? I suppose they're stockpiling for the holidays. So John Lucas, do you still hold to your July prediction? Or do you give it up as a lost cause? Think something might convince the big N to release 1.5 Million Wiis over the course of July? When does everyone think that the Wii will finally overcome the Xbox?

I never change, baby.

Bet your bottom dollar that within the month of July, the XBox 360 will be caught in worldwide sales by the Wii.

PSSST! *whispers* Dragon Quest Swords *whispers*

Check this thread and its innerlinks to see the accuracy of my long shot foretellings:

"Me from 2005: Future of the Next-Generation of Gaming"

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3254

As for my July call, I made this prediction upon my first post here. I repost it and the link to the thread with my March 14 debut here for your perusal. All of my big claims were made in my first post and they had been in my mind for a long time before so I couldn't help but take the opportunity to record them for the public record.

Never do I change with the wind. When I make a call I stick by it for better or for worse. Time is a tattletale:

"Worldwide Wii sales are now only 4 million behind XBox 360 - closing the gap" (scroll down on 1st page of thread to see my entry)

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=672

===================================================

(March 14, 2007) My first post

I'm laughing at all the posts that say Wii can't beat XBox 360 this year.
LAUGHING!

Have you people been paying attention to these charts?
If VGCharts.org's figures are correct, Wii is gonna pass XBox 360 within the SUMMER!

YES! They will surpass XBox 360 by the summer.
XBox 360 has been at that 9 million mark for a while now while Wii seems to move a million a month!

In the Americas figures alone Wii is between the 1/3 & 1/2 mark of all XBox 360 sales.
Practically 40% of XBox 360's sales right NOW. Do the math:
40% of 5.82 = 2.328 or 5.82 X .40 = 2.328 ~> 2.33 (rounded off)

40% of 5.82 million is roughly 2.33 million

Wii has 2.29 million. Do you see how close that is?
Wii is on its way to not only SHIPPING 6 million worldwide by March but SELLING 6 million by March according to the charts VGCharts.org put together.
April, May, June at a million a month and Wii will be breathing down the neck of Microsoft's Green & White baby.

Within that summer whatever worldwide amount XBox 360 has sold (not shipped; as sold is the only thing that really matters) will be SURPASSED!
And that will probably be in the 10 million range.
And the sad thing is that it would have taken the 360 about a year & a half (18 months) to sell in the 10 million range while it took the Wii 8 months to do the same. A little less than HALF the time.
And all this with a STILL low supply in the stores. All these months and we're STILL at practically launch fever??? Can you imagine when supply finally picks up and people are more easily able to pick a machine up? Wii's sales are limited to availability because demand is insane!

People are buying this machine for their offices for God's sake! I just talked to a friend online who said that where she worked they are about to install a Wii. Sports bars adding Wiis & all this kind of stuff. More than just homes are buying Wiis now.

The old system sellers are gonna be outclassed. Nintendo has redefined system sellers. Wii Sports, Wii Play & the rest of games like that move systems now. Halo 3 & MGS4 & FF XIII will sell but they are not the lynchpins they once were. And that is because the audience who would play those games vs. the audience who will play those Wii type games will be vastly different & that there is more audience for the Wii types.
I have a 43-year old cousin who had no interest whatsoever in videogames since the beginning now actually wanting a Wii. Wii Sports interests him especially Wii Bowling since he's a bowler & when I told him Wii Play had billiards or pool his interest perked up even more. People are seriously underestimating this type of audience bringing in the numbers for Wii.

In fact Wii has been underestimated on every level & THAT will be the mistake that will haunt the competition & the naysayers. It was played that way on purpose and we are seeing the results on the sales charts.

I mean once Super Mario Galaxy comes out this holiday season & Nintendo unveils their full online playable titles we will be seeing NEW shortages & sellouts that will make Wii's representation on the charts baffling dumbfounding to disbelief!

I predict by end of year we'll be seeing Wii be on its way to that 20 million mark probably even passed that. That is not hyperbole. Half a year they sell 10 million so why do you think the other half they can't sell 10 million? You know holiday sales give a little more oomph than rest of year, right?
It's just 4 measly months and Wii is about to sell 6 million. Nobody in their right mind can look at this figure and see the Wii falling off. If so it's just blind hope & irrational disbelief in the legitmacy of the Wii console.
Nintendo counts on being counted out. That's where they hurt you the most. But in the end sooner or later people are gonna recognize Wii as a force to be reckoned with.
The Revolution they promised with this system is happening before your very eyes ready or not.

The WiiDS Phenomenon
http://www.popzart.com/viewtopic.php?topic=514

John Lucas

====================================

(March 14, 2007) My second post

Well that's what I'm proposing. I see Wii besting the 360 within the month of July. By August We will see Wii pulling ahead. You gotta remember Wii sales are slowed because of demand keeping these things out of the stores for any decent period of time. It's only recently that I started seeing Wiis in stores and basically one or two at best. And these don't last long. When I got my copy of Wii Play it was the only one LEFT! I had to visit different stores to find it! The first time I was looking for it just came home empty handed. People are STILL having stories here in mid-March about not being able to find Wiis & waiting in lines to get one. The best source for this kind of info is talking to store clerks in the electronic depts. at Wal-Marts & stores like that. Folks who don't really care about games and are exasperated at the work put on them by these game system buyers.

I've had mine since December the 6th after foolishly thinking I could just waltz in on launch day and get in line for a Wii at the last minute. FOOLISH! I never bought a system a launch before & basically lucked out getting that Wii because I work a night job & could get to the store in the early morning hours. My friend who went with me that launch day & wants a Wii still hasn't gotten one yet.

Wii's sales are only held back by supply. That's all. Shipped DOES equal Sold (to customers not Sold to Retailers) when it comes to Wii because they are virtually sold out within minutes or hours upon reaching the stores. There are no Wii pyramids on the storeroom floor. Some people don't even know what the Wii box looks like.

I'm not saying 360 can't sell & that Halo 3 won't move units. That's a given. I actually see Guitar Hero II on XBox 360 being a bigger system seller & seeing them put that against PS3's launch shows me Microsoft means business.
Guitar Hero II on XBox 360: The Ramifications
http://www.popzart.com/viewtopic.php?topic=340

But I guarantee you that we won't have to wait 'til fall to see Wii catching the 360. It will be the worldwide leader this summer I guarantee you. By holiday season will be start of its domination period which will carry it all the way through this generation as top system. By then it's not just gonna outsell the competition it's gonna overshadow the competition.

You'll be seeing me on these boards, trust me. Just wait and see what the numbers say to see if I'm full of hot air or some other type of 'substance'. I call it for July. That's when we'll see Wii catch the 360. I call it for 20 million at Dec 31, 2007. That's the worldwide tally of sales for Wii.
We'll just have to see if I'm right.
I don't play the caution game when I see a sure thing.
I don't like hedging bets. I'm very confident in my predictions.

John Lucas

 

Legend11 said: The bad hardware press seems to be hurting the 360 a lot. One has to wonder where sales would be if it had a solid build and still powerful (like the PS3).

The 360 seemed about as Solid as the PS3 does now 8 months after its launch too, we'll let time decide whether or not the PS3 truly excels in reliability.

@jlauro: No. Vgchartz numbers for Wii were at 6.0xM before official numbers, after them it dropped to 5.84M.

John's writings are quite interesting to say the least. I thoroughly enjoy his writing style. I would have believed end of July also -- especially given N's "1.5" million per month statement some time back but they haven't reached that point. Either the 1.5m unit/month is "hooie" as mentioned above or Nintendo is holding back units. I doubt the latter, though, because they are in this business to make money, not sit on stock.

Think about it: if they were holding back a stock of a million or more units and suddenly MS and Sony got aggressive with price cuts -- i.e. premium xbox 360 for $299 with a pack-in for the holidays -- Nintendo might be forced to knock 50 bucks off the price. $50 times 1 million consoles they *could* have sold means a loss of $50 million dollars of pure profit. That would be insanely stupid and hence why I believe that they are holding nothing back -- selling everything they can make as fast as they can make it. That's business 101.