http://jmsoul.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/divinelolwut.jpg

Yeah but Far Cry had lots of console versions and they presented a version of the Cry-engine that runs on the 360 and PS3, if Crysis will ever make it to consoles is unknown but some games useing the engine are sure to... so for Crytek much like Epic its very important to know when a new generation of consoles will be comming so they have a new engine ready by then...

So now trends can be defined by single occurences?  You're just itching for MS to fail aren't you?

I'm thinking 2012/2013. Sales are very strong for both 360 and PS3, I think it can maintain a sustainable level until then.

However, we've never seen a generation with 3 strong consoles so who can really guess.

Again, I don't think the next generation will be rushed like this one was. Not in the least bit. Why?

MONEY.

Almost every single third party company, and even 2/3 of the console makers, finished the last two fiscal years in the red--meaning that their financial losses far outstripped their gains. And for some of those companies, it was losses were damn near catastrophic. Third party companies are going to decide how it works next time and anyone rushing too soon will be shunned the way Sega shot themselves in the foot by releasing the Saturn too soon after the 32X and the Dreamcast too soon after the Saturn. Third party devs need time to make money, and so far, many of them haven't made any. This console generation transition has been financially harder than any ever before.

Third party companies won't start reaping what they sow until the end of the current fiscal year, and I'm sure that many of them will still end with tremendous losses. Developers are taking longer to get used to the new systems and in that, it's taking longer to balance game-making effeciency with cost of development. Games are also taking far longer to develop than ever before meaning that some Xbox360 games that are just getting started now won't even be out until late 2010 at the soonest in many cases.


The next console generation will cost even more to develop for, and early developers will not make profits on the new system--especially if it's rushed out in 2010 or 2011. The last "guesstimate" I read was that the next generation would start in 2012, and that may be financially feasible, but for now, 2010 or 2011 simply aren't. On top of all this, the current generation isn't enough of a leap in gameplay (aside from DS/Wii). The next generation needs to be VASTLY improved, and not just graphically. You can bet that the unforeseen (by everyone but Nintendo) success of the DS and Wii will have sent MS and Sony's R&D teams back to the drawing board for their next consoles. Now everyone knows that simply upping the power simply won't be enough next time. The learning curve next time will be even more dramatic because of this.


I think we've finally reached a point where a console's life is a more natural 7 or so years rather than 4 or 5. Both the Xbox and GameCube were killed before their full potential had been tapped, this is evidenced by the fact that new tricks and wonders are STILL being ironed out of the PS2--and both the Xbox and GameCube were more powerful systems. There is simply too much potential in current machines to rush another generation.

History can't really be used to analyze the future transition to Generation 8 because things are much different than before. Costs are much higher. And there are people playing games for the first time since the second generation that aren't hardcore gamers.

Yeah, I think we will have to wait a bit longer. Maybe in the 2013-14 timeframe or so the PS4 and Xbox 720 will be released.

that sounds about right.
in fact, it sounds kind of obvious!!!

There was a console out before PS2 also, which got buried. 

I haven't heard many folks say recently that PS3 still doesn't have games, but oh well.  Lots of big ones will drop this fall.

PS3's slowness can't be "why" Sony has a 10-year life cycle, because the last two Playstations have had one as well.

Good point but I would imagine in both cases the 360 and ps3 will still be selling a couple of years into the life of the next gen.

As with ps2.

That would make it more like 7/8 years imo.

What a joke. Trying to apply the dynamics of the past to the new rules of processor design and computing technology is ludicrous. Because consoles have come out every 5 to 7 years is no reason, given current technology trends, to believe that another console will be worthy of hitting the shelves by 2010, or even by 2012.  Comparing the past to the present, is actually the reason to believe that this trend will not continue.

The only "new" consoles you'll see by 2012 are slimline versions of the X360 and PS3, and *maybe* a HD Wii, so Nintendo can finally step into the "current gen", technologically.

The Wii's success alone would be enough to convince me that consoles do NOT need to evolve again in just a couple years, and I'm pretty sure the business types at MS and Sony would agree with me. Why spend billions on a proven "limited income" path... when you can make billions instead?

Coupled with the fact that modern hardware is having a lot of trouble gaining ground at the rate it used to, I sincerely doubt that "next gen" by the 2010-2012 timeframe is realistic. I also firmly believe that MS and Sony meant it, when they said "10 year lifespan". 2013 at the earliest for a true successor to the HD crown of the PS360. More likely 2014.