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Forums - Sales - Interesting NPD analysis

Sqrl on 18 August 2008
MikeB said:

@ Sqrl

but rather that you do not believe the current split will hold over time as we move forward


Statistics of genetic offspring likelihoods was part of my education. I don't agree with your percentages on likelihood. No such figures can be given due to the factors mentioned earlier, which I believe greatly alters the long term outlook.

Pretty much the same thing, no?

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
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Chemical on 18 August 2008

PS2 was a very casual system, so what did people expect? I still dont understand what made Sony think that it was a good idea to make a PS3 what it is.



Proud owner of the following gaming devices:

PC, XBox 360, Wii, PS2, DS, PS3

 

Str8knox on 18 August 2008

So, the Wii is practically eating up the Ps2's userbase on a WorldWide scale! While the 360 is eating it up in just the Us only. Excellent for the Wii imo, but ok for the 360.



Bodhesatva on 18 August 2008

If anything, I would expect the ratio (again, ~16%) to drop even closer to the average consumer population.

We can safely assume the hardcore Sony faithful have largely bought in to the new system; the people that are still playing with a PS2 would be casual players, and casual players do not tend to have affinity for any particular company.

In other words, if even the hardcore, buy-a-new-system-within-the-first-year-or-so players are showing only a slight preference, then I think the casual PS2 owners will be even less preferential towards the PS3. I wouldn't be surprised to see the average PS2 owner end up skewing towards the PS3 by less than 10%, from the 16% it's at now.



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Str8knox on 18 August 2008

Soriku, of course for Japan and Probably America. Europe has been too strong of Sony dominance to tell at the moment. (Though it seems likely that Wii will take a lot of the Ps2's userbase.)



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Sqrl on 18 August 2008
Bodhesatva said:

If anything, I would expect the ratio (again, ~16%) to drop even closer to the average consumer population.

We can safely assume the hardcore Sony faithful have largely bought in to the new system; the people that are still playing with a PS2 would be casual players, and casual players do not tend to have affinity for any particular company.

In other words, if even the hardcore, buy-a-new-system-within-the-first-year-or-so players are showing only a slight preference, then I think the casual PS2 owners will be even less preferential towards the PS3. I wouldn't be surprised to see the average PS2 owner end up skewing towards the PS3 by less than 10%, from the 16% it's at now.

Not to nitpick but I did go through the hassle of hunting down LTD NPD numbers through July to get the exact numbers.

PS2 owners:

Are  3.60% less likely to buy a Wii than the average consumer
Are  2.64% less likely to buy a 360 than the average consumer
Are 13.60% more likely to buy a PS3 than the average consumer

Doesn't change your point really, although it may (or may not) lower your estimate.
To Each Man, Responsibility
mysticD on 18 August 2008
blazinhead89 said:
Well i own both a PS2 and PS3

Yes, so that would make you part of the 10% group.

 

 



mysticD on 18 August 2008
MikeB said:

@ Kasz216

I think I am correct.

Those who like the XBox for its games are more likely to have upgraded towards a 360 (nomatter if owning a PS2 as well or not) as sequels to nearly all big XBox games have already been released for the 360.

Fans of GameCube games like Mario Kart, Smash Brothers, Zelda, Metroid, etc are also more likely to have bought a Wii. As those sequels are also already out for the Wii.

With regard to the PS3, it's the console with the highest entry pricing. I think many are waiting for the price to drop or for sequels to the PS2's most popular games, like Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo 5, Kingdom Hearts, God of War, Jak & Daxter, team ICO game, etc. I think it's certainly a combination of various factors.

Also note the 360 had a year headstart on the market, so 1 extra year of people upgrading towards this platform.

I thought the original argument was people that own Xbox are the one that purchased the 360 during the first year and that all those are hardcore xbox user.  (Also the same argument that was put forth that Halo 3 will not boost 360 sale since all hardcore xbox already own 360).

Also shouldn't PS3 have dominated and wipe out 360 one year lead in less that 6 months? I remember that what many Sony fans were saying. 

 

 



Reasonable on 18 August 2008

These ratios make sense to me. The real (unanswerable at this point I think) question is how will the remaining 60% vote (if the do) for this gen?

Many will likely get a Wii, that seems certain, but PS3/360 will depend a lot on which really looks like the winning HD console and I doubt that's going to be clear until early 2009.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

Nutboy on 18 August 2008

Hmm.

There are 8M Wii owners who also owned a Ps2.

There are 7.5M X360 owners who also owned a Ps2

There are 4.2M Ps3 owners who also owned a Ps2.

There are  22.3M Ps2 owners who haven't upgraded.

 

Furthermore.

There are 3.4M Wii owners who didn't own a Ps2.

There are 3.2M X360 owners who didn't own a Ps2.

There are ~ 100K Ps3 owners who didn't own a Ps2 

 

In addition.

There are ~ 25M XB-GCN owners in the US.

A maximum of 1/3 of the XB-GCN owners have bought a new console.

More Ps2 owners have upgraded than XB/GCN owners.

 

Continuing.

Less GC owners, in percentage, are likely to have upgraded to Wii, than Ps2 owners.

Same goes for X360.

The Wii hasn't majorly expanded the market. It's simply taking the Ps2 market, a bit GC, a bit XB, and a bit more.

 

Without further ado.

Ps3 is almost only Ps2 owners. There isn't likely to be any non gamers who bought the Ps3.

X360 might have grabbed a bit new users, but probably very little.

The market isn't going to expand a lot in the US this gen.