In 2-3 years? Not a chance.

It doesn't have to be an MMO, as long as it's an online PC game. It can be a game with subscriptions, have a play as you pay scheme, microtransactions (virtual items selling) or advertisement.

It will not happen in 2-3 years, but it will definitely happen some time in the next century. With Japan's population expected to decrease to 60 million by 2100 and Europe's population also aging and decreasing, it is inevitable that China will emerge as a top-three gaming market.

Some day China will be a major market, but it won't happen soon. Major cultural and economic shifts will be required first.

India also has similar potential.

Yeah, I forgot about ingame ads. But microtransactions are typically used in MMOs, so it's basically the same. Regardless, WOW is the top game over there.

For anyone saying China won't pass Japan in the next 2-3 years:

Japan:
Japanese Console Games Revenue in 2007: $3.2 billions
- Down 1% compared to 2006

China:
Online Games Revenue in 2007: $1.7 billions
- Up 71% compared to 2006

Packaged PC Games Revenue: N/A
- Up 56% compared to 2006

Expected Online Revenue in 2012: $6 billions
- 29% Annual Growth

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/29249/SPECIAL-REPORT-Japans-2007-market-stats-in-full

http://www.gamespy.com/articles/871/871244p1.html

How well did Nintendo's consoles for the chinese market do?

@mrstickball: The 5-10$ in China would roughly equal 50-100$ in the west, atleast for the average worked, so even with prices that low, it wouldn't be "cheap". But if you release the the game there a few years after its initial release, when the game is already budget priced in the west, the business model could be viable.

The movies in China seems to make money from first day sales in theatres, after that, they are found pirated from the market.

Anyway, the chinese government have said, that they are going to fight the piracy and if they have any kind of success, combined with prices going down to a level, which would be somewhat accessible to the average worker, we could see something happening to the piracy.

how could you possibly undercut piraters? The only very slight advantage you might have is you are buying DVDs or blu-rays in bigger quantities, although i'm sure they are buying them in big quantities also. It all fails though because piraters don't have any middle man. The only cost for the pirater is the cost of the DVD, how can anyone possibly undercut that? Here in Korea you buy movies 4 for about $10, nobody is going to be willing to undercut that.

Yea i expect them to pass japan in online revenue, show me offline revenue.  It is nonexistant in China, and it's huge in Japan.