Second half of 2009 PS3 will reach 30 million install base - I predict by September 2009. PS3 will over take the X360 in worldwide console sales by July 2009.

PS3 will reach 30 million consoles in September  2009 and be roughly 1 million consoles in front of the X360. As for the Wii well I do not care. It could be around 60 million install base by September 2009.

Providing if 3 PS3's are sold to 2 X360's sold over the next twelve months then PS3 can be in front of the X360 by July 2009. Assuming PS3 outsells the X360 by 50% from now on. Remember take intoaccount the whole 12 months sales averages with the peak holiday season launches and PS3 exclusives that would significantly boost PS3 console sales.

Discuss this fair prediction. please no troll/ flaming in my thread. Thanks.

At this current rate of sales, it would take the PS3 close to 3 years just to catch the 360.

But considering that the holidays are close and a PS3 price cut is necesary, it will have a temporry boost. I'm gonna say that the PS3 will catch the 360 in mid 2010.

As for the Wii... you don't care because it can't be beaten =p

And I expect that in 2009, Wii sales are going to be bigger, because, just like the DS in his second year of life, it will have a lot third party support.

Well, if you factor in the inevitble $299.99 pricepoint by next year, you'll come to a diffrent conclusion. Plus, FFXIII comes out in Japan next year, and you know there will be a bundle.    

EDIT: Wii doesn't offer any compelling software that can compete with Final Fantasy XIII. It's only merit is it's pricepoint and even that will be miniscule next year, compared to a $299.99 PS3 price point.

How many of these threads are you going to make dude?

 And you feel proud about the PS3 needing bundles, giving away free retail games and movies and price cuts?

Just imagine when Nintendo start releasing bundles with free full retail games, new colors and price cuts (Sony already did all this).

And price is not a factor, because people pay on ebay and other stores more than the price of a PS3. Besides, Wii is actually expensier than the 360 in some parts.

I don't know how you arrive at these numbers, but I tend to look at historical sales as a predictor of future sales. If you take all of 2K8 and average by week (according to VGC), the PS3 has outsold the 360 by 50K or so on average. That still leaves a margin of 5.54 million units. (That's actually UP from about 5.45 a month ago). 5,540,000/50K = 110+ weeks or over two years. Even if the PS3 triples that delta on a worldwide basis for NOV-DEC 2008 and we call that period 8 weeks, That's 800K more sold over the period and shaves that number somwhat. It still pushes us into 2010. The current 360 surge isn't helping matters.

What's wrong with bundles? It's a strategic maneuvor, just like wii sports.    

 Very true... nice analys.

But I have to tell you... in the time I have been here on VGChartz, I have noticed that Sony fanboys don't really like to use logic and analysis... just guessing and wishful thinking.

Could be possible, depends on how well 360 sales sustain, and how well the 80GB model is received.

@*bleu-ocelot*: So you say that FFXIII will change the tides in favour of the PS3, when it's a ctaully a multiplatform title that may as well be delayed into 2010?

Come on try another one.

when is the ps3 going to start that great run? when?