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Forums - Sales - Sony and Nintendo will tie in hardware race, says former SCEE boss

HappySqurriel on 13 August 2008
BKK2 said:
It should be noted that he is talking about active installed base, this is not the same as actual sales. This is why he has PS2 active installed base at only 90 million.

The EIF chairman presented figures he arrived at by triangulating Screen Digest and IDG data. He also took into account factors such as the growth of hi-def and the grey gamer market, the emergence of new game engines and increasing ubiquity of wi-fi access. He said the active installed base for hardware is set to rise from 316 million to 500 million over the next three years, with "two big mega-powers" leading the charge.

According to Deering sales of the DS and any future iterations of the hardware will reach 150 million by 2011, while the figure for Wii will be 80 million. He predicted the installed base for PS3 will be 70 million, and said for PS2 it will be 90 million and PSP will be 70 million. In other words, Sony and Nintendo will each have sold 230 million machines.


The Screen Digest computer model uses estimates of annual sales for each hardware format to calculate `active installed base' data. `Active installed base' refers to the number of machines for which owners are still purchasing software. However, this is not simply equivalent to cumulated sales, since it is well known that software purchasing is heavily biased towards new hardware owners. There is a strong novelty factor and the longer the hardware is possessed, the less likely is the owner to continue buying new software

But the active install base of the PS2 is already considerably lower than 90 Million ...

If you look at World Weekly software sales the PS2 is already noticeably lower than the other consoles, and although this total will be very incomplete I doubt that the titles that do not sell enough to get listed really push the software sales of the PS2 to be in the range of the Nintendo DS. Certainly, the "active" PS2 userbase is still probably larger than the other consoles but it is shrinking (very) rapidly and those that remain as PS2 owners are the most passive console owners on the market.

 



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colonelstubbs on 13 August 2008
bardicverse said:
Sony exec after Sony exec make me, as a dev, not want to make games for their systems. I wouldnt want my team linked to such ignorant people.

 

 Im sure they are duly upset



I hope my 360 doesn't RRoD
         "Suck my balls!" - Tag courtesy of Fkusmot

BKK2 on 13 August 2008
HappySqurriel said:
BKK2 said:
It should be noted that he is talking about active installed base, this is not the same as actual sales. This is why he has PS2 active installed base at only 90 million.

The EIF chairman presented figures he arrived at by triangulating Screen Digest and IDG data. He also took into account factors such as the growth of hi-def and the grey gamer market, the emergence of new game engines and increasing ubiquity of wi-fi access. He said the active installed base for hardware is set to rise from 316 million to 500 million over the next three years, with "two big mega-powers" leading the charge.

According to Deering sales of the DS and any future iterations of the hardware will reach 150 million by 2011, while the figure for Wii will be 80 million. He predicted the installed base for PS3 will be 70 million, and said for PS2 it will be 90 million and PSP will be 70 million. In other words, Sony and Nintendo will each have sold 230 million machines.


The Screen Digest computer model uses estimates of annual sales for each hardware format to calculate `active installed base' data. `Active installed base' refers to the number of machines for which owners are still purchasing software. However, this is not simply equivalent to cumulated sales, since it is well known that software purchasing is heavily biased towards new hardware owners. There is a strong novelty factor and the longer the hardware is possessed, the less likely is the owner to continue buying new software

But the active install base of the PS2 is already considerably lower than 90 Million ...

If you look at World Weekly software sales the PS2 is already noticeably lower than the other consoles, and although this total will be very incomplete I doubt that the titles that do not sell enough to get listed really push the software sales of the PS2 to be in the range of the Nintendo DS. Certainly, the "active" PS2 userbase is still probably larger than the other consoles but it is shrinking (very) rapidly and those that remain as PS2 owners are the most passive console owners on the market.

 

True, but I guess it depends how they define "still purchasing software". It could simply mean having bought a game in the previous 12 months.

Over last 12 months PS2 has shipped 142.2m units of software.

Link

Even by that definition 90m does seem a little high though.



S.T.A.G.E. on 13 August 2008
Bodhesatva said:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/sony-and-nintendo-will-tie-in-hardware-race-says-former-scee-boss

Can someone put the whole article up? For some confounded reason, it won't let me copy/paste.

The gen will be over by the time they do. Nintendo will be onto bigger things and will be finished with the Wii. Sony is becoming well known for over-milking their products now. Nintendo will destroy them, just like they are beating Microsoft. Microsofts sole purpose this gen is to keep Sony beneath them until the gen is over. I don't see this happening for Sony, and I cannot say that Microsoft is failing. Sony will probably reach Nintendos lifespan numbers, but it will be well past the gen into the lifetime of the PS4. If thats what they call a tie...they are extremely sad, but meh, anything for good press.

 



S.T.A.G.E. on 13 August 2008
Ratz said:
The thing is that Sony's plan for the PS3 went down the drain because of four key factors:

1) Delay and cost of the PS3;
2) Microsoft beat everyone to the market with the Xbox 360 gaining one year head start, forcing specially Sony to play catch up;
3) The unexpected success of Wii which let both Sony and Microsoft battling for only half of the market since Wii, continuing the current sales rate, will grab 50% or more market share;
4) Very important: Unlike the previous generation where the PS2 was alone with no worthy competition, this time the manufacturers are being forced to dispute publishers trying to get exclusive titles and support for their consoles.

+1 very wise.

 



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S.T.A.G.E. on 13 August 2008

In order to get more of the lower income fans to be interested in a new Sony product for a low price, they will have to cut the PS2 immediately. The PS2's library has far more allure than the PS3. Lower income people could care less about graphics as being frugal is the largest thing on their mind. After the 3rd year of a consoles life the brands target the middle and lower classes whom are more frugal with their money (IE:the majority). I would dare say 60% of the PS2's sales eminated from these people. These are the same MS are trying to tap before the end of the year.



Str8knox on 13 August 2008

Do you want a real life scenario involving this? Think this way:


You are in school. Someone knocked down your apple juice. Guess what? It's time to put DUKES UP!

So, once the fight is over, you will then announce a tie? WTF!



Everstar on 13 August 2008

I want to know wtf this guy was on when he said this that is such a rediculious perdiction lol...



Proud Owner of  a Wii and Xbox 360 and a PS3(When I get the money)

Sqrl on 13 August 2008
obieslut said:
i have come from the future and i have came to tell you that he was wrong.

the ps3 has sole 3X the amount of the Wii

 

Pro Tip: When going to the future, try not to set the date for April 1st.
To Each Man, Responsibility
Profcrab on 14 August 2008
bardicverse said:
Sony exec after Sony exec make me, as a dev, not want to make games for their systems. I wouldnt want my team linked to such ignorant people.

 

I think for most people, Sony marketing is just background noise now.  No one has believed Sony marketing since they were issuing press statements during the PS3 launch like Baghdad Bob shortly before and during the fall of Iraq.  Every once in a while, one of them will say something that sounds more rational and intelligent and we are given a hope that the rain of vomit has ceased, but then it starts right back up again.

I give this thread a 9.4.



Thank god for the disable signatures option.