I make no claim to being a statistician but I enjoy looking at the nice charts (chartz ?) that someone has gone to a great deal of trouble to provide. I wondered what they might tell me if I compared them to the date key games were released. Please forgive my naiveté and ignorance in my analysis for this is my first try but I hope it proves of some interest and value.

Some questions I wanted to answer:

1.       Which games sold a lot of hardware and which didn’t

2.       Is it true that Nintendo hardware sales are less driven by games?

3.       Does the response in hardware sales give any indication as to a game’s total sales?

4.       Are game driven hardware responses similar by region?

I chose Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros Brawl and Mario Kart Wii for Nintendo. For comparison I took one Xbox 360 blockbuster, Halo 3, one PS3 blockbuster, Metal Gear Solid 4, and one super hit with a combined release, Grand Theft Auto 4.

NOTE: The left hand scale is ONLY for total sales. Sales and cumulative sales are displayed as they print out and are for relative comparison only.

For the US and Canada, Nintendo sales are somewhat hard to interpret because of the constant ups and downs that probably represent shipments and then shortages.  But every major Nintendo release is followed by a significant peak in sales, perhaps due to Nintendo’s custom of shipping extra consoles as well as demand. How much of those sales are due to the game and how much by pent-up demand, I can’t say and Nintendo probably doesn’t care. Oddly the peak following SSBB is the weakest although sales have caught up with SMG which had a sales surge which seemed to deplete supplies right before Christmas. Both single platform HD releases caused sales increases enough to put them briefly ahead of the Wii while the dual platform GTA4 produced hardware sales that can only be described as disappointing even if both are combined.

CONCLUSION: In North America hardware sales are very much game driven, especially single platform games. Nintendo major releases seem to increase hardware sales just as significantly as Microsoft and Sony, if not more so.

NOTES: The total sales scale is 4M instead of 8M because I didn’t have to leave room for the Halo Mountain. Release dates are for Europe though total sales are for Europe and all others combined because that’s the way the data was available.

Nintendo sales are noticeably less volatile in Europe showing a better supply situation. Hardware sales seem less game driven although interestingly, GTA4 showed the most dramatic peak, the exact opposite of North America.

In Japan, Nintendo game sales do not seem to particularly drive hardware sales with the exception of SSB even though MK Wii sold better. I don’t know how to interpret Wii Fit which either set off the mother of all hardware sales or more likely coincided with something else which caused a monumental increase. Someone more knowledgeable than me will have to explain this. I assume it is not Christmas as only a very tiny percentage would celebrate that holiday. Halo did nothing for the obvious reason and GTA4 flopped as well, showing perhaps the traditional aversion to excess. MGS4 caused a tremendous jump in PS3 sales, probably the most dramatic of all.

FINAL CONCLUSION: Hit games can indeed drive hardware sales, especially in North America although the peaks seem very short lived. The size of the hardware peak is not a particularly good indicator of the final total sales.

Interesting, but I think you should leave total sales out of the graph as its muddying up the lines.

I can't see the Images.

Sorry I had to change images because oof size, please try again.

To me, its hits that bring in new audiences that are relevant. Galaxy 2, GTA V, Wii Fit 2, MGS5, Halo 4, Gears 2, etc aren't sales drivers for hw since those people largely own the machines already.

The thing is lots of people kind of like some sw...but not at the original price. Traditionally thats why price cuts worked. But with Wii & DS things are a bit different now.

I would think that Wii Fit would define sw that brought in a new audience and yet it does not stand out. Or is that a supply issue?

Very thorough

The American chart is too hard to analyse, but Wii Fit did quite well for Japanese and others Wii sales. And i would imagine that lots of people have bought/ will buy a Wii for Wii Fit but not in the first week. it's going to be a very long legged game and i think that stopped it such a noticeable effect.

I agree that the sequel to a game on that console will rarely be a hardware driver, and so i predict that the things that actually push hardware in the upcoming months will be LittleBigPlanet, Animal Crossing, The Conduit and Spore (assuming the Wii version isn't gimped too much)

interesting but GTA4 was never released in Japan so how would it even have a chance to sell in Japan?

Besides WiiFit the jumps mostly conform to Holidays and Price drops and hardware shipments. There wouldnt have been such a spike of Wii's when GTAIV dropped if Nintendo hadnt flooded the market with hardware. The only true jump that could be attributed to a game is WiiFit, but I only say that because Im not sure what Nintendo's shipments were like for it, they could have just opened the gates more on hardware shipments, meeting already established demand.

Even the MGS4 jump for the PS3 could have been attributed to the 80gig with BC and DS3 and MGS4 hitting the market, not the game selling the SKU, but the SKU selling the SKU.

Good analysis. Wii fit will prob. be the best seller this year.

And SSB was a disaster in Others coz of that delay most likely