Read the first post, it'll likely pass it before the end of the year.  And since the 360 very likely has at least another 3 years ahead of it (according to third parties that have mentioned Microsoft's 5+ year plan for the 360) it'll definately do a lot better.

The 360 will definately do considerably better than the original box. But that still only makes it a slightly faster snail. Either way, it still amounts to little more than a small trail of slime.

 Right, that's one way to look at it, and it's important that we keep it in mind. However, there are two additional points to make:

1) The 360 will probably see 200 percent of the Xbox's Japanese sales or more in its lifetime. No matter how small a pie you have, twice as big is good.

2) This mirrors Microsoft's other properties, such as Internet Explorer. They never (to my knowledge) take a market by storm: the enter it, and gradually build market share over time.  

Considering that at the similar point in it's lifespan, the XBox had only 1 holiday season under its belt (having launched in February), it doesn't sound too impressive.

The graph, however, is far more impressive, as it shows the 360 now exploding in comparison to XBox. As much as 1.5 million consoles this generation is possible, which would be huge growth.

But then things are put back in perspective by adding a couple other lines for other consoles. I don't mean PS2 and DS. I mean, say, WonderSwan and WonderSwan Color.

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=X360®1=Japan&cons2=WS®2=Japan&cons3=WSC®3=Japan&align=1

Selling 1.5 million consoles instead of .5 million may technically result in a "growth in marketshare," but it is still a very, very poor performance. Saying this growth bodes well for future generations is like saying SEGA's growth from Master System to Mega Drive would help Saturn. Too much can happen in the meantime (though MS are unlikely to have 8 consoles on the market at once) to negate it all.

I agree, Erik, although I'd point out that Microsoft has a consistent track record of NOT letting a Sega-style collapse happen in a variety of tech markets. Generally speaking, once they reach market leader, they take (possibly shady) steps to secure their position. The easiest examples: Microsoft Word became included in the Windows software package, which not only gave it the lead, but secured it ad infinitum.

Could they do the same with the Xbox? I don't see precisely how that would work at the moment, but then, we're talking 10+ years in the future, and I'm still not sure how a convergence box is going to work when it actually, you know, makes things converge.  

Less negative is more positive.

Generally speaking, once they reach market leader, they take (possibly shady) steps to secure their position. The easiest examples: Microsoft Word became included in the Windows software package, which not only gave it the lead, but secured it ad infinitum.

Name any time MS has done this without leveraging their OS monopoly.

Things like Office and IE became included with Windows, and so maintaining the monopoly was cake. Outside of leveraging Windows to capture new PC software markets, has Microsoft ever had a truly successful venture?

Regardless, I believe you agree with the main point that this growth is meaningless if some fundamental circumstance changes in the 10 or 15 years it would take for said growth to lead to market leadership.

It looks positive, until you look at the Y-value for the chart. 500,000..... Wow, guys! The PS3 only sold 1 mil so far in Japan, after 7 months, and it is considered a horrible failure there. The 360 sold half of that, in twice the amount of time. So thats like, a horrible failure times four.

What I'm honestly imagining is a time when a "PC" and a "Video Game system" are synonymous, which I think will approach within the next 10, possibly 15 years. At that point, Microsoft's PC monopolies have important weight for Video Game systems as well. Microsoft has the most powerful monopoly in the electronic world: if we can't figure out how to leverage that in the video game market -- which is rapidly coming to resemble the computer market -- then I think we're simply not being creative enough. 

Still, your point is well taken. And yes, we agree on the main point.

These figures are on par with what I have been arguing in my last article A Brief Look at NextGen War (http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3686&start=0#end)

Though I also agree with those who say, its still only a minor development, and not a guarantor of MS success in Japan, and I also agree with the fact that its a "positive" development that puts MS in a "less negative" position. Its like recovering from AIDS to Hepatitis :D

There is a consequtive that MS can assure succes in Japan. He can bundle Xbox X (360, 720 etc) with Windows PCs or maybe Windows Version X with Xbox X. This way, it will double/triple/quadruple its sales. I think MS is playing for long term, and for now, they are just making themselves a recognized brand, more fierce attacks will come later.