What keeps systems alive after the next generation begins is steady releases of software, not technology ... A system that doesn't really stand out in sales will not have stand out support after the next generation begins, and will have difficulty lasting more than a couple years.

Sony marketed the PS3 differently, placing emphasis on blu-ray. I can give you many, many people who will buy a PS3 for blu-ray.

This is a pathetic thread.

There is no ten-year plan for the PS3. It is not going to be a market leader. The market leaders have the longest life.

But the Wii is going to be replaced in the next 4 years. It is not going to sell exactly the same for 7+ years.

If by some miracle the PS3 does, what makes you think that it will sell higher levels than it has ever done years after the console wars are done and its technology is outdated and there are far cheaper Blu-Ray players on the market?

 How many people will buy a PS3 for Blu-Ray when a stand alone player is $100 and the PS3 is $300?

Sony would have a better chance to sell the PS3 as a Blu-ray player if they release the same exact machine under the name BluRayStation and marketed it as a Blu-Ray player who also runs PS3 games on the side.

1) Do you expect prices of Blu-Ray players to fall to $100 in 2009? Because that's when the PS3 will cost $300.

2) The PS3 MARKETING has shown the PS3 as an affordable blu-ray player that can also play games. Many people will buy a PS3 then. Mark my words.

Did you hear Sony at the E3 conference? There IS a 10 year plan for the PS3.

Lets hope the plan works.

lol hahaha, reading through these post has been funny.

You get a few logical analysis of the potential of the PS3 mixed with a few flame baiters mixed with a few idealistic fanboys.

Let's compare shall we?

First we have some known facts.
1. The next generation starts about every 6yrs.

PS1 ~ 10 year life '94-'04ish (PS2 launched '00, 6yrs)
1. 2 years on market without 'winner' from previous generations comparable machine.
2. Within 1st 3 years acquired exclusive rights to the greater majority of all 3rd party software.
3. Was able to capture very early on a significant sales lead over competition that propelled it to have a very high % of the market share.
4. Price point was always very close to lowest priced competitor.

PS2 halfway through 9th year. (PS3 launched '06, 6yrs)
1. Enjoyed a 1.5 year head start as compared to its biggest prev gen rival and the new comer that eventually became biggest rival that gen.
2. Was able to keep nearly every single 3rd party exclusive from prev gen, with very few eventually going multiplatform AFTER they had already released on PS2.
3. Was always at a significant lead over competition allowing it to gain marketshare as compared to prev gen.
4. Again, price point was always close to lowest price competitor.

As you can see they both operated under similar conditions and neither of them tried to become supercomputers. In fact they were both arguably much weaker machines than their competitors.

PS3 2nd year
1. Arguably last to the market.
2. Has only a couple 3rd party exclusives as nearly all have gone PS360+PC.
3. Has thus far never been the leader in any territory and all trends point to that remaining throughout the rest of the generation.
4. Base model has always had a >$200 price difference to the lowest competition.


As you can see the PS3 is no where near the same situation as the other two. It is at a major disadvantage to sell anywhere near their levels. Also, only the 1st place system has EVER sold for very longer after the next generation started. Thus, unless this gen last 10yrs, a 2nd or 3rd place PS3 will not last 10yrs. I would expect it to last at best 7yrs and at the rate it is selling it may not even reach 70million.