I don't believe it will be anywhere near 150 million... not even 120 million. I just don't think that the industry has expanded enough to support two consoles selling over 100 million. I do however feel that the Wii will sell over 100 million. I think both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will end up with around 50 million. The PS3 may end up with a bit more because of its supposed longevity.

I guess we will all have to wait and see.

Yup, the ps1 did it(Even though it had horrible sells the first 2 years.)

I think it will sell more than 150 million. If they keep their 10 year plan because once the ps3 is 299, it will be selling like the Wii. For 299 price you get a HD console, Blu-ray, video store, talk to people around the world for free with a video(need PSeye), and a lot of other things.

Yes. Sony hasn't yet been courting casuals, who mostly haven't upgraded from the PS2. As we know from the PS2, casual games sell the longest. Because of the marketing, for lots of people PS3=Blu-ray, so once BR becomes standard (which WILL happen), many of them will buy a PS3. Developers will be squeezing out better graphics, physics etc. from the PS3 so Sony won't need to rush the PS4 to the market. The PS3 could well get to 150 million, although that's of course an optimistic prediction. 120 million might be more realistic.

Do you guys work for viral marketers? Its going to be a cold day in hell when we don't have at least five of these threads a day.

On topic:

No.

Ten Reasons:

1) The ten year plan is nonsense. PS2 will still sell 1m units in 2011 because its peak was so high, thats year 11 from the 2000 Japan launch. The plan is theoretical. It worked even better than expected with PS2 because PS2 had the highest peak of any system ever (21m+ shipped in a year) until DS last year (30.3m shipped in a year).

2) Xbox 360 is more viable than Xbox ever was in all three regions worldwide.

3) Wii is trending faster than DS and DS is trending faster than PS2. In other words, regionally Wii sales>PS2 sales>PS3 sales

4) Blu Ray relevance is over rated, its not enough of a step up for most people to become the DVD of the future. I know 30 people in my college with HD TVs, 20 of them have Wiis, none of them have Blu Ray. I know thats just anecdotal, so here is better evidence: Japan and Europe have higher adoption rates of Blu Ray than USA, and Wii still outsells PS3 in those reasons. I see no reason to expect a change, as Wii is close to $400 in much of Europe vs. PS3 at $600 - both are overpriced.

5) Most big hits are now multiplatform, Wii, DS or PSP games.

6) PS2 sold over 7m in the USA in three years in the Americas, and over 4m in Japan in its peak. PS3 is going to have issues peaking at 2m in a year in Japan and over 5m in the USA in one year, let alone multiple years that it would need to top PS2.

7) Wii & Xbox 360 will always be cheaper than PS3, and if PS3 started to gain momentum (i.e. outselling the other two by a wide margin worldwide), one or both successors would be announced, and the PS3 tech advantage would dissappear overnight as would the sales momentum.

8) Sony can't aggressively cut prices right now because the world economy is in the shitter. By extension Sony is making less money than they would be otherwise and they lose money on PS3. Selling more PS3s is actually bad for Sony at the moment even though alot of the costs are recouped from software.

9) Higher development costs and slower launch sales mean that PS3 development is risky for developers. There are only so many games that can sell 1 million copies on a base of 15m, and with diminishing returns vs. last gen, the portables, PS2, PC, Wii and cellphones look like better investments.

10) Women greatly prefer Wii to traditional platforms. Even if you think think only sells to a fraction of the men PS2 does, women are very under-served in this industry, and catering to them is a way to achieve huge growth very quickly. Make no mistake, DS wouldn't be where it is without women, and Wii is following a similar trajectory. Among men, Xbox 360 hurts PS3 in the west since its cheaper, and Wii hurts PS3 because its more diversified and cheaper.

Are you talking about this which only shows Japanese data ordo you mean the first nine months when it was only out in Japan?

I think it won't but that's just me.

@ The Source: Sometimes trends don't follow. I think it's a little to early to say Wii has anything on the ps2. Just like The Dark Knight and Titanic...

You can't judge the PS3's expectations based on such a vague notion of the PSOne's success. The PS3 and PSOne are so different in their situations that they are not comparable.

1. The PSOne benefitted from being easy to design games for over the Saturn and costing less to manufacture than the N64.

2. The PSOne also benefitted from a year lead over the N64, giving third parties enough time to see they could be successful on Sony's console and didn't need Nintendo, more similiar to the 360's position right now.

3. Sony got lucky because Sega mismanaged themselves going into that generation and were uncooperative amongst their own ranks. Had Sega been unified, we may have seen a Sega Saturn console winning the generation.

4. Sony benefitted because Nintendo was overly cocky and imposed many restrictions on third parties, driving them away. Had the Saturn been designed as the 3D capable design the American branch of Sega were aiming for, and not the convoluted 2D-only mess of architecture the Saturn turned out to be, a lot of third parties would have headed Sega's way.

Sony does not have the benefit of competitor mismanagement, messy console design, or cocky attitudes. In fact, look it over and you'll see it's Sony that is making those same mistakes that gave them the win in the first place.

Everyone is forgetting that the brand name is strong throughout the casual gamers, and Sony has yet to court them (they ARE planning to do it in a year or two). I can give you many casuals that are planning to upgrade to the PS3 once there are more games and the price is lower.