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Forums - Microsoft - Microsoft: Digital Distribution Will Outstrip Physical Sales

gebx on 07 August 2008
Jo21 said:
gebx said:
Jo21 said:

and people whine about sony PR.

 

i don't imagine people waiting a month to download a 25gb HD movie.

 

unless 100mbps gets pushed into the every single house in the world its not gonna happen.

i don't expect that until the next 5-10 years by the time m$ would be in their next console

 

5-10 years? So basically the same time frame its going to take Blu Ray to become the dominant format?

Or lets be optimistic and say Blu Ray is THE format in 4 years... meaning the Blu Ray would be the dominate format for a total 1-2 years until Digital Distribution is widely available to everyone? Woopee doo!

 

check the facts before jumping on a conclusion that IF, something widely 100mbps+ broadband its implement, that would be a miracle even in america.

for DVD-like movies its possible (enconded to like 700mb)... but never for HD movies that go over 15gb... it would take days to download it even at a 2mbps connection.

and even like that people would likely download HD rips of blu ray movies. :P

 

 

lol! I'm using what you are expecting...

"unless 100mbps gets pushed into the every single house in the world its not gonna happen.

i don't expect that until the next 5-10 years by the time m$ would be in their next console"


So its something that you're expecting in 5 to 10 years but you are saying it would be a miracle if it did happen..



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DirtyP2002 on 07 August 2008
gebx said:
Jo21 said:
gebx said:
Jo21 said:

and people whine about sony PR.

 

i don't imagine people waiting a month to download a 25gb HD movie.

 

unless 100mbps gets pushed into the every single house in the world its not gonna happen.

i don't expect that until the next 5-10 years by the time m$ would be in their next console

 

5-10 years? So basically the same time frame its going to take Blu Ray to become the dominant format?

Or lets be optimistic and say Blu Ray is THE format in 4 years... meaning the Blu Ray would be the dominate format for a total 1-2 years until Digital Distribution is widely available to everyone? Woopee doo!

 

check the facts before jumping on a conclusion that IF, something widely 100mbps+ broadband its implement, that would be a miracle even in america.

for DVD-like movies its possible (enconded to like 700mb)... but never for HD movies that go over 15gb... it would take days to download it even at a 2mbps connection.

and even like that people would likely download HD rips of blu ray movies. :P

 

 

lol! I'm using what you are expecting...

"unless 100mbps gets pushed into the every single house in the world its not gonna happen.

i don't expect that until the next 5-10 years by the time m$ would be in their next console"


So its something that you're expecting in 5 to 10 years but you are saying it would be a miracle if it did happen..

haha ... i thought the same! You are quoting him and he respones: "Who ever said that has no idea!" classic!

 



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Sqrl on 07 August 2008
Jo21 said:
gebx said:
Jo21 said:

and people whine about sony PR.

 

i don't imagine people waiting a month to download a 25gb HD movie.

 

unless 100mbps gets pushed into the every single house in the world its not gonna happen.

i don't expect that until the next 5-10 years by the time m$ would be in their next console

 

5-10 years? So basically the same time frame its going to take Blu Ray to become the dominant format?

Or lets be optimistic and say Blu Ray is THE format in 4 years... meaning the Blu Ray would be the dominate format for a total 1-2 years until Digital Distribution is widely available to everyone? Woopee doo!

 

check the facts before jumping on a conclusion that IF, something widely 100mbps+ broadband its implement, that would be a miracle even in america.

for DVD-like movies its possible (enconded to like 700mb)... but never for HD movies that go over 15gb... it would take days to download it even at a 2mbps connection.

and even like that people would likely download HD rips of blu ray movies. :P

 

Uhm, it takes about 2.27 hours to download a 15GB file at 15Mbps which is what I have in the middle of Nebraska.  Other countries like Japan have already hit 45Mbps as the average and it would take 45 minutes at that speed.

For the record a 15GB file downloading at 2 Mbps takes just slightly more than 17 hours, not "days" like you suggest.

edit: I overestimated the time it would take for the first two examples by 33% each, made the correction

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
Plaupius on 07 August 2008

I find it strange that, when it comes to digital distribution, those who oppose it claim that it will not take off until the whole world has 100mbps connections, yet at the same time no such requirement is made for Blu-Ray. Honestly, currently only a fraction of the families in the world have a TV, let alone a DVD player. Has that stopped DVD from becoming THE format? No. There are plenty of people in the world who either currently have, or who in the next 5-10 years will have, fast enough connection to download HD movies. IMO stating that digital distribution will not take off is just denying the obvious.



NJ5 on 07 August 2008
Sqrl said:

Uhm, it takes about 3 hours to download a 15GB file at 15Mbps which is what I have in the middle of Nebraska. Other countries like Japan have already hit 45Mbps as the average and it would take about an hour at that speed.

For the record a 15GB file downloading at 2 Mbps takes just slightly more than 17 hours, not "days" like you suggest.

 

I have been realizing that whenever there's a debate about connection speeds and download times, basic maths is always one of the first few things to go out the window.

 



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Sqrl on 07 August 2008
NJ5 said:
Sqrl said:

Uhm, it takes about 3 hours to download a 15GB file at 15Mbps which is what I have in the middle of Nebraska. Other countries like Japan have already hit 45Mbps as the average and it would take about an hour at that speed.

For the record a 15GB file downloading at 2 Mbps takes just slightly more than 17 hours, not "days" like you suggest.

 

I have been realizing that whenever there's a debate about connection speeds and download times, basic maths is always one of the first few things to go out the window.

 

Hell you don't even need to do any math, google will do it for you:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=15GB+%2F+45+Mbps&btnG=Search

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=15GB+%2F+15+Mbps&btnG=Search

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=15GB+%2F+2+Mbps&btnG=Search

I was estimating for those first two links, and I estimated high.

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
NJ5 on 07 August 2008

Yeah, google's calculator is really cool :)



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dbot on 07 August 2008

I think everyone supports the idea that digital distribution is the future. The great thing about Sony is they currently support both a high definition disc format AND digital distribution. Microsoft supports neither, although they talk about them a lot.



Thanks for the input, Jeff.

 

 

NJ5 on 07 August 2008
dbot said:
I think everyone supports the idea that digital distribution is the future. The great thing about Sony is they currently support both a high definition disc format AND digital distribution. Microsoft supports neither, although they talk about them a lot.


Last I checked, this thread is about distribution of games, where both companies are about neck and neck in both kinds of distribution.

 



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Godot on 07 August 2008
Sqrl said:
akuma587 said:
Sqrl said:

Digital distribution is better in every meaningful way, the only downside is a psychological one. Physical media can be lost, broken, stolen, etc..where as digital can be re downloaded at any time. If your console gets stolen there is no games for them to take also, you just remove your console from your account and re-attach it to your new console and voila you only lose the console and not the 20 games you own.

The only thing holding this back right now is bandwidth for most consumers, but that will get much better in the next 10 years and I would be surprised if we weren't downloading the majority of our games by 2018 when the Xbox 1080 launches =)

So me having to delete and redownload 10+ Gig games is a psychological barrier?  Maybe if I had a T3 connection, but I don't, so it is definitely more than a psychological barrier.  This is why I am waiting for the Blu-Ray release of Siren: Blood Curse.

Digital Distribution will be a solution 10 years from now, IF we have some serious investment in the bandwidth infrastructure in the U.S., which I frankly don't see happening unless you live in a heavily populated area.  I know the city council in this town won't even allow fiber optic to be put in some parts of the town due to backroom deals with the local cable company.

People have to remember that games are only going to get larger too, so we need a corresponding increase in bandwidth, not just a temporary one.

 

Why would you have to delete the game in the first place? 

If you're just complaining about the DL speeds then thats exactly why I pointed it out as the major obstacle, not sure why you brought it up like I had missed it. Even so, it only takes about 2 hours to download 10 GB of data for folks with 10Mbps connections and those are available in most areas already, hell I live in Nebraska and I'm on a 15Mbps connection.

The fact of the matter is that the initial download doesn't really matter much since if you really have to have a game you'll want it on day 1.  In which case you'll just preload the game and you'll have it far faster and easier than you would waiting in line at the mall.

While I would have agreed last year that our net infrastructure was going nowhere fast there have been quite a few telecoms that have opened their eyes to the problem as of late.  With other countries already up at average speeds of 45Mbps like Japan even if we catch up to that downloading a totally full dual-layer BR disc (~50GB) would only take about two and a half hours.

I don't know about you but a 2 hour download every time I'm silly enough to delete my games is more than worth it if I don't have to swap discs again, can never lose my games, and don't have to drive to the store to begin with.

 

 

 

I would kind of agree with you but since in Canada, we can't have anything near what see everywhere else... I don't think people will change for a long time here.



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