everyone forget BD has ONLY had all studio support and no format war for a mere 2 months since WB came on board 100%.

Factor in the fact that BD adoption is dependent upon HD TV adoption i think people forecasting anything but a positive future for BD are simply in denial and bitter that Sony may have hit something successful.

Think about it, BD hasnt had one single holiday to push itself with all studios, all blockbusters and all retail support.....not to mention up until June WB was STILL releasing a delayed Day and Date schedule on HD DVD......

Folks, BD adoption is going very well when approached logically.

@akuma587: I think there are better reasons to be doubtful about Blu-Ray's growth than just the sales in the first two years.

Many of them have already been pointed out throughout the thread:

- HDTV adoption;
- The slowing economy's effect (may also affect HDTV adoption);
- Last but not the least, customer perception.

The sales data is just the icing on the cake. Customer perception along with the slowing economy are the two big problems Blu-Ray is facing IMHO. Movie downloads may also affect it, but nowhere near as much as these factors above.

I just don't see Blu-ray as a DVD killer like DVD killed VHS.

DVD offered a lot more than just sharper images, such as - durability, less bulky and additional content.

Blu-ray only offers a slightly sharper image at much higher cost. Technophiles and PS3 owners (by default) will get it but it lacks true mass appeal.

I forsee another technology ended Blu-ray & DVD together before Blu-ray 'kill's it's cousin DVD

UMD can be considered a success if you measure it in terms of how many PSPs and PSP games use it, but not by media company support.

http://julia-roy.blogspot.com/2008/07/umd-sales-in-sharp-decline-studios-pull.html

"Hardly surprising, UMD sales have taken a sharp turn for the worse and the phenomenal sales figures of the initial months are a thing to be fondly remembered. UMD sales have become so low at this point that many studios currently pull out of the market altogether. Even Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, for example, who is directly tied to the PSP, of course, has decided to pull back on UMD releases for the time being. Don't expect any more catalog titles to surface on UMD, and don't expect every new movie to be released for your PSP either. Pickings will become very slim simply because people have stopped purchasing movies for the platform and seem to have – finally – embraced the PSP for what it really is, a gaming platform."

Blu-ray has the support, currently, of many studios, but if it follows the pattern of UMD, it will fade into obscurity as the laserdisc did, which is sad because I liked laserdisc (I have 90 movies) and I like HD movies in general.

EDIT: fixed my text in bold.

My thread grew. Wow.

Here are the facts according to the various sources listed in this thread:

- Including PS3's Blu-Ray hardware adoption is comparable to DVD hardware adoption.

- Not including PS3's, Blu-Ray hardware adoption is dismal compared to DVD hardware adoption (or any measure really).

- Blu-Ray disk purchase rates are dismal compared to DVD disk purchase rates (or any measure really).

I certainly won't argue that Insignia is a great brand. But the point is that the PS3 is no longer even close to the cheapest option, as the low-end PS3 is $400, compared to the Insignia player which is $280.

Had the question been "is the PS3 the best bang for the buck for playing Blu-ray", then my answer would have been yes.

Why is Blu-Ray being compared to the UMD they are completley different , Blu-Ray is inteneded to be the standard as far as I understand UMD is exclusive to the PSP and was always intended to be so.

Nj5 is only putting down Blu-Ray because of the faliure of HD-DVD everyone knows if it was the other way round he'd be crying "HD-DVD" will suceed from the rooftops . DVD adoption VS Blu-Ray adoption only paints part of the picture , Blu-Ray isn't experiencing many of the advantages that DVD had in it's introduction mainly the huge leap from vhs to dvd and the PS2 .

There is a noticable difference between Blu-Ray and DVD but it's not as Day and Night as it was between DVD and VHS this will be a limiting factor for the growth of Blu-Ray , The Blu Ray consortium also isn't keen on dropping prices so far and that also is a limiting factor . Blu-Ray is seen to be the unnesacery luxury for those with expensive HD TV's

I think Blu-Ray's main obstacle is price not the neccesity for blu-ray and not the DVD . Consumers activley buy into things they don't need , DVD was an improvment not a neccasery change and with declining DVD movie sales i think movies studios will be wanting to push Blu-Ray as somehting new and advanced to the point where the consumer believes they need Blu-Ray , combined with a drop in the price of HDTV's , the cost of production of Blu-Ray's and Blu-Ray players I think that Blu-Ray will be able to experience rapid growth.

Blu-Ray's future is quite uncertain , I dought it will "Fail" but the level of success BLu-Ray will experience is unsure.

@Million: I don't care about HD-DVD and never did. If you were around when HD-DVD was alive, you would know that (were you?). On othe other hand, if it were not for the facts I posted, you and some other Sony fans would probably still be claiming that Blu-Ray is growing faster than DVD.

But of course, this won't stop you or others from creating an opportunity to take that jab.

 If you are going to remove the PS3 from the Blu-ray adoption rates, you will need to remove the PS2 and Xbox from the DVD adoption rates. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the PS3 came out substantially earlier (relative to Blu-Ray's launch) than the PS2 did (relative to DVD's launch).