Why is Blu-Ray being compared to the UMD they are completley different , Blu-Ray is inteneded to be the standard as far as I understand UMD is exclusive to the PSP and was always intended to be so.
Nj5 is only putting down Blu-Ray because of the faliure of HD-DVD everyone knows if it was the other way round he'd be crying "HD-DVD" will suceed from the rooftops . DVD adoption VS Blu-Ray adoption only paints part of the picture , Blu-Ray isn't experiencing many of the advantages that DVD had in it's introduction mainly the huge leap from vhs to dvd and the PS2 .
There is a noticable difference between Blu-Ray and DVD but it's not as Day and Night as it was between DVD and VHS this will be a limiting factor for the growth of Blu-Ray , The Blu Ray consortium also isn't keen on dropping prices so far and that also is a limiting factor . Blu-Ray is seen to be the unnesacery luxury for those with expensive HD TV's
I think Blu-Ray's main obstacle is price not the neccesity for blu-ray and not the DVD . Consumers activley buy into things they don't need , DVD was an improvment not a neccasery change and with declining DVD movie sales i think movies studios will be wanting to push Blu-Ray as somehting new and advanced to the point where the consumer believes they need Blu-Ray , combined with a drop in the price of HDTV's , the cost of production of Blu-Ray's and Blu-Ray players I think that Blu-Ray will be able to experience rapid growth.
Blu-Ray's future is quite uncertain , I dought it will "Fail" but the level of success BLu-Ray will experience is unsure.
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