I think PS3 sales will increase come September regardless of a new model. Heading into fall with new game releases, and it being a better territory for consumer electronics it should by default see an increase in sales. I would also say anyone who is willing to pay four hundred dollars for a console, and what the movie player function will still pay for it regardless of what price the 360 arcade reaches.
However that does not necessarily lead to defeating Microsoft with world wide sale. The reality is in Japan the console has fallen back on hard times, and the better 360 lineup in the region is going to diminish the divide for at least a few months. For the other regions despite the rejoicing the PS3 is only leading the 360 by twenty three percent as of last weeks numbers. That is good but it is not dominating. The one dominating in Europe is the Wii. Where the console outsold both competitors combined by seventy two percent as of last week. So the fighting ground will remain small, and the margins of victory are really paper tigers in the scope of the world wide console war.
Moving onto North America you find the real story. Everyone equates the higher 360 sales with the fire sale of the old 20gb units. However it shows how critical a price point can be in North America. Microsoft is more likely to tap into a new much larger market with their new low end price, and if Microsoft can maintain supply they will probably be able to maintain much of their current margin. This week the 360 outsold the PS3 by over one hundred percent.
Yes PS3 sales will increase but not with the kind of proportion that 360 sales will increase due to the lower price in North America. Sony already expended their weapon of mass distraction with Metal Gear. Microsoft still has theirs for the holiday season. I am giving Metal Gear the benefit of the doubt that it will actually clear five million within the next year. To put it on par for sales of Gears of War. So Sony had its block buster, and Microsoft is yet to have its block buster. So the got to have that game factor has switched back over to the 360 for the holiday season.
Not only will it reverse for the must have game, but the 360 has a very balanced varied holiday season offering. Four high end titles in four distinct genres. Gears of War, Banjo Kazooie, Fable II, and The Last Remnant. To add on top of the multiple platform titles. So they are casting quite the large net.
I am not thinking massive difference in sales but perhaps thirty percent greater for the 360 especially given how the economy happens to be at the moment. A two hundred dollar console with a rock solid lineup will be a very compelling purchase for the North American consumer, and right now that is the market with the most variance, and better high definition penetration. After all this week the high definition consoles combined outsold the low definition console by seventy percent. So extrapolating forward the North American market is where the console war for the next few months will be settled.
Not in Europe where the 360 is still holding its own, of Japan where both consoles are a sales joke. No in North America where the high definition consoles can fend off the Wii, and make greater sales, and where one of the consoles has hit the proverbial sweet spot. Watch over the coming months it will be all about North America
