| Sky Render said: Ah yes, the mythical 10-year cycle that can somehow make a product sell for a decade straight. If only markets actually worked that way, huh? Quick economics lesson: products go through a cycle of demand that's based off of consumer interest, not supplier intentions. This cycle tends to start slow, reach a peak, and drop off. For video game consoles, this peak tends to hit around the second or third year on the market, and the drop-off is usually quite severe after that unless the product is in particularly high demand (such as the NES or PS2, which remained high sellers even after their peak years). The short of this is that the only way a product can have a 10-year life cycle is if the product actually remains in demand for 10 years. And whether or not this will happen is usually pretty obvious within about 2 years of the product being on the market, as long as there's competition to compare it to. The PS3 is not following the same type of sales cycle as the PS2 or NES. Instead of starting slow and going meteoric, its sales have started slow and risen at a more or less average pace. It's closer to the sales cycle of the GameCube and original XBOX. Meaning that it will all but definitely drop off within the next year and a half, possibly in a quite dramatic fashion, due to the primary userbase interested in the system having already picked the system up. |
QFE. Too many people think that PS3's 10 year life cycle is set, simply because Sony says so. There is a chance it may happen, though I think it's slim, but it's the consumers that decide if the demand will be there, not the manufacturer.
Tag: Hawk - Reluctant Dark Messiah (provided by fkusumot)
An important note for those who try to argue that "brand name" will help the PS3: brand is the lowest factor on the consumer-side factors of demand. For those who don't know, there are five basic factors of demand in the classic economic model (suitability, price, demographic, product type, and competition). However, consumer-side and supplier-side demand have specific factors, with very little overlap. These factors are:
Consumer-side (in order of priority):
* Suitability
* Price
* Brand
Supplier-side (in order of priority):
* Product Type
* Demographic
* Competition
* Price
In a perfectly competitive market, suitability is a non-factor for consumers, as all products are equal. However, consoles are not a perfectly competitive market, as evidenced by the fact that one console always outsells all others in any given generation of products. The product which does this best suits the needs of the market demographic at large. "At large" being the key term here, as the PS3 does not suit the needs of the demographic at large as well as the Wii does (obviously enough, given the massive discrepancy in sales).
Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.
Sorry, Gearbox, but that's just not going to happen that way. Look at all these posts with logic, reason and some knowledge of how markets work and you'll start to understand.
I'd break it all down for you but I'd just be repeating what a lot of people have already said.
The rEVOLution is not being televised
PS3 win this gen? It cant even win a week against the 360 anymore!
| horriblebastard said: Of couse this doesn't inculde all the unknown variables Such as being able to see into the future and predict who will sell the most you mean? |
I'm not even sure this contains any variables other than Sony fanboys' fantasy
Biggest Pikmin Fan on VGChartz I was chosen by default due to voting irregularities
Super Smash Brawl Code 1762-4158-5677 Send me a message if you want to receive a beat down
| obieslut said: Sony will win, when bluray become mainstream the ps3 will still be selling then people will be thinking like hey i can play games with this aswell, me brothers girlfriends grandad is buying a ps3 for the blu-ray, and he said he will play some games aswell if he sees anything he likes. |
Funny enough my sister's husband's uncle's friend's cat's cousin is buying a PS3 for Blu Ray. Therefore I also agree that PS3 will win.
Biggest Pikmin Fan on VGChartz I was chosen by default due to voting irregularities
Super Smash Brawl Code 1762-4158-5677 Send me a message if you want to receive a beat down
| Sky Render said: Ah yes, the mythical 10-year cycle that can somehow make a product sell for a decade straight. If only markets actually worked that way, huh? Quick economics lesson: products go through a cycle of demand that's based off of consumer interest, not supplier intentions. This cycle tends to start slow, reach a peak, and drop off. For video game consoles, this peak tends to hit around the second or third year on the market, and the drop-off is usually quite severe after that unless the product is in particularly high demand (such as the NES or PS2, which remained high sellers even after their peak years). The short of this is that the only way a product can have a 10-year life cycle is if the product actually remains in demand for 10 years. And whether or not this will happen is usually pretty obvious within about 2 years of the product being on the market, as long as there's competition to compare it to. The PS3 is not following the same type of sales cycle as the PS2 or NES. Instead of starting slow and going meteoric, its sales have started slow and risen at a more or less average pace. It's closer to the sales cycle of the GameCube and original XBOX. Meaning that it will all but definitely drop off within the next year and a half, possibly in a quite dramatic fashion, due to the primary userbase interested in the system having already picked the system up. |
Put so well, its amazing how obvious the content of your post is!
...Yet for some reason it isn't obvious to everyone?
Who are these people? Did they go to school?
More to the point, don't they think before they post a message?
| lapsed_gamer said: As much as I don't think the PS3 will beat the Wii I also think people are incorrectly putting previous generation trends on the PS3 lifetime graph. I really think that the initial launch was more of a preview launch and that if they play their cards right, Sony can have a mass market launch later on. The peak will then come 2-3 years after this point (I'm guessing Christmas 2010.) Sony's name and the extra technology behind the system will keep it from feeling stale for those adopters of the mass market launch. |
Preview launch?...Mass market launch?...!!!!!!!!
Last time I checked the PS3 was available in the majority of the developed world.
It hurts my head to even contemplate what on earth you are trying to excrete on these forums.
tuoyo said:
Funny enough my sister's husband's uncle's friend's cat's cousin is buying a PS3 for Blu Ray. Therefore I also agree that PS3 will win.
|
I laughed my a$$ off.
OT: I disagree. Wii is selling like hotcakes now. I can only imagine what it will be like when 3rd party support is in full swing.
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