Do you think Sony will have learnt from PS3 and not launch a mega-computer of its time (or what Sony preferred to call it). Will they release a casual fad like the wii?

Depends.

Maybe.

I've been hoping to use this. And now I think I can without remorse:

I don't buy into this Gaining looseing Marketshare crap. every generation is seperate from the other. it all depends on the hardware, price, games, and marketing of the system when it releases. with a $600 console at launch, it was a guarentee Sony was not goingto have the marketshre it had last gen, or even the gen before. This doesn't mean the PS3 will not achieve the goals that Sony have and had set for it. Afterall the PS3 played a major role in getting Blueray a win, and that may have been more important to Sony then winning marketshare this gen. people want to look at everything Black and white around here, but the truth is there is much more to it all than JUST sales numbers.

Perhaps.

It´s a possibility

Think about it like this. What will the Wii 2 specs look like? A PS3?

 And I'm guessing the PS4's will be 2 PS3's glued together.

I don't think we're ever going to see the dominance of the PS1/2 repeated, even by Nintendo this gen. It's going to be a much more level playing field from here on out. But I think it's perfectly possible that Sony will take the no. 1 spot next time. Of course, so could Microsoft or Nintendo.

I doubt they'll go casual the way Nintendo has, if only because their brand couldn't handle such a dramatic shift. More likely they'll try to appeal to everyone the way they did with the PS2, with a more reasonably priced machine.

And since motion controls are probably going to be the standard next time around, they'll automatically be that much closer to that demographic...