Yeah, Pachter is right by means of his wording. He's basically said that IF sales decline rapidly we'll see a new DS. We all know they won't. He even knows it, I'm sure.

Also, Pachter didn't predict a Wii2 in 2009, he predicted a WiiHD in 2009 that has been postponed to 2010 due to the inordinate success of the Wii and he is very likely right. An HD upgrade wouldn't be any different from the GB to GBC switch, which is officially not a change in generations, and would be massive money in the bank for Nintendo. Not only would Nintendo be right in making that choice, but they'd be wrong in not making it. It's just that 2009 is too soon to do so because they haven't managed to saturate the market yet.

The thing about DS is...

1) Its going to be Nintendo's most successful platform ever for software.

2) its probably going to be Nintendo's most successful platform ever for hardware.

But...

1) DS sales have maybe two-three major pushes left in Japan. DQIX can do 2m week one and probably push DS sales 40k when it releases and then push an extra 10k-20k DS units for a few weeks after that.

2) DS is still peaking in the west. Especially in Europe.

3) Nintendo had to kill off GBA early to have DS ready to disrupt PSP. I doubt it wants to kill off DS so early.

I think we will see a new Nintendo portable introduced within a year - in Japan. But I don't think it will be by the end of this year. I think Japan gets a new DS model or a new portable in like mid 2009, and we get it around the same time or for holiday 2009. DS is going to hit 98m shipped on March 31.

If DS2 came in April 2009 in Japan and Sept 2009 in the west, DS would be keep going on fumes to like 120m by March 31, 2010 and then sales would start to rapidly decrease as DS2 took off, in theory. DS had such a high peak and still has room for price drops so I feel like even if DS2 came out in 2009, DS would eventually be able to hit 130m-150m, simply because they aren't going to go from 28m shipped this year to 0m shipped in two years. It doesn't work that way. DS still has two big holidays at least in the west.

no DS2 till late 2010 at the earliest. Im still waiting on my Game Boy Enhanced that can play Gamecube disks.

Wii2 = WiiHD

I remember seeing N'Gai making fun of Pachter's 2009 prediction at E3.  Has Pachter changed his mind since then?

A November 2010 launch for WiiHD would mean that the Wii would only have had a lifespan of 4 years.  I seriously doubt that will happen.  The Wii is the fastest selling console ever, and has shown no signs of slowing.  Why would Nintendo cut short a first place console?  This would be especially strange, since the later years of a console's life are generally the most profitable.  So it would not mean more money in the bank, but less.  Since first party games would need to be HD, development costs would also shyrocket, cutting into software profits.  Nintendo will likely avoid HD as long as possible.

No way Pachter - dead wrong sorry.

We won't be seeing *any* successor to the DS for 2, maybe 3 years. A revised model - certainly. Whether that hits Japan this year, in time for Xmas - or next year - only Nintendo probably know at the moment.

It would be incredibly stupid for Nintendo to disrupt DS sales, when its easily the #1 selling games device (worldwide) at the moment.

...

Ninty can release a "premium" DS, with some onboard storage, and a few new features - for a hefty sum, and reap in the extra cash.

I for one agree with him.

The Nintendo DS is getting so much competition from the PSP and iPhone, that Nintendo really has no choice but to throw away their still immensely profitable platform.

Pachter, shutup.

But with Pachter's doublespeak, when Nintendo launches a revised model he'll say "Look, this is what I was talking about."

So sad that internet forum can't communicate sarcasm properly.

I'm sure Nintendo have the hardware pretty well spec'd out but I don't think we'll see a new handheld in the west until at least 2010... Depending on whether Nintendo can increase the hardware sales in Japan or not we may see a new handheld there late 2009 but again I doubt it.. I guess another factor maybe what Sony does but it all depends.

The DS still has so much room for price drops and it seems Nintendo are trying to get much more out of the system such as the talk of plane flight etc..

Also as Iwata stated, sometimes it only takes one single piece of software to drive the sales of a platform so I'm sure Nintendo intend the DS to last a while yet