So where half way through the current gen. 

We've learned that a "ten year life cycle" doesn't exclude the years that the successor to the previous console hits shelves.

We've figured out that the head honchos at the "Big Three" are not going to sell consoles like Shick and Gillette sell razors; Give away the razor make the money off the blades.

We've seen that more than one console can see profit in a generation.

We can see that developers are getting weary to put all their eggs in big budget basket.

With the risk of developing and marketing a console why is it worth it to release another one in 2011-2012?

How will the "Big Three" handle the next gen in a more business-minded and responsible way?

The reason why there will be a new set of consoles in that time frame is simple.  Things look less shiny after 4-5 years.  People want the next thing.  One of the companies will go first, and the others will be forced to follow.  Don't jump on me yet, I don't think anybody will be upset at my predictions (even if you do not agree).

Ok, I know we all want stuff.  Stuff that we're not going to get.  Ponies.  Double the cores, 4 times the ram, ray tracing, holographic projectors hidden under flaps.

My Predictions follow, what are yours?

General:

No ponies. 

Slight upgrades to the CPU, GPU and other performance related components.

Faster storage and media delivery.

Sony:

I'm going to call this, the Gameboy Color Generation for Sony

The next Playstation will be completely interchangeable with the PS3.  It will not be called the PS4; it will may be called PS with another word (PS Complete, Playstation Home Computer).  It will be a more integrated machine with accessories.

Games will be compatible with PS3 but may lose some features or be outputed at 720p instead of 1080p when played on the older.

It will be much smaller.

It will come packed with 1 game or set of games, 1 DualShock, and one Alternative Input that is Sony's answer to the Wiimote.

BluRay will be faster.

Faster hard drive.

The big marketing difference?

It will have a very well integrated setup where a none gamer will be able to turn it on and play a movie from disc or from the PSN Store.  This may not be a big deal to you, but think about parents.  This will make the PS more home-friendly and not something that needs to be locked away in the kids room or game room.  It may come with a standard remote or have movie playback buttons right on the console.

$299

Microsoft:

Will not be forwards compatible like the GBC but MS has the most room to improve in non-essential-to-gaming hardware.

It will either have a (1)DVD drive and depend on more DC for new games OR (2) a BluRay Drive OR switch to some proprietary (3) Solid State Memory Device (like SDHC).  I like #1&3 or 2&3 (Media package) together, but that's my pony.  SSMDs will be very cheap in whole sale by 2012.  It might just be #2.

Larger, Faster Hard Drive.  (Upgrades will still be ridiculously priced.)

Built in WiFi 10/100/1000.

Still uses traditional controller, may have Six-Axis style motion.  MS will not create a Wiimote, but might include some type of pointing device.

NetFlix and Video Store will be a major feature.

Same architechture as 360, but faster (two 360's duct taped together?) 1080p may or may not be part of the console.

Full 360 BC. Same BC functionality with original Xbox.

No more Ring of power; it will look complete different from either Xbox and may even drop that name because of associations with RROD.

The upgrade will be more noticable than PS3's successor but it will not be like the jump we saw last gen.'

It will include XBLA store credit.

$249 for the basic, $349 for the Media version (with the BluRay drive), if they go with the just BluRay route w/o SSMD $299.

Nintendo:

Will look like the Wii, act like a Wii, and smell like a Wii.  It will be called a Wii.  Super Wii, WiiHD, Wii2 (Haha WiinNi), Wii4All, WiiWhatever-you-want-to-call-it.  Nintendo did it off the success of NES and Gameboy, Sony did it with the Playstation.

Not blu-ray, maybe some large format but probably still use DVD9 like optical discs.

Still no hard drive but will have SDHC and larger internal memory.

Faster Wifi.

720p cap but this will not be the big deal Nintendo pushes.

Myamoto says he wants to have an option for more buttons.  They will move the +/-/1/2 buttons to be more accessible during furious play but retain it's simplicity.  It will have a more ergonomical shape.

The pointer will use a different technology.  Accelerometers proved to be too inaccurate alone and MotionPlus was added, the IR has too much interference with light and in large living rooms a similar solution will be implemented.

Now for the big risky prediction. What Nintendo plans on doing to Wow:

The first big feature/selling will be sharing and communication (read: Nintendo's  expansion in online, not like Live or PSN but something significant.  Very significant, revolutionary if you will) WiiSpeak/WiiSee(built into the sensor bar) online WiiBranded Game.  Videos of grandparents playing with grandkids and Mom & Dad playing with Jimmy off at College.  All with ridiculous smiles.  A camera would be different than the Eye or 360's cam because it's included.  Send video to friends, etc.  Editing features to include camera and screen capture from any game.

A version of achievements that core and casual alike can enjoy.

Second big feature: I have no idea.  Something nobody outside of Nintendo has thought of...

Friend codes will be replaced with ID's but no making friends online.

$249

sorry to say but the Cell version 2 is not a minor upgrade. 4 PPEs and 32 - 40 SPEs is not a small upgrade.

If they really put something like that into a console within the next 6 years, then they are asking for losses.

How much improvement do you really think developers and hardware manufacturers can really afford.  Not to mention TV's are capped at 1080.  There's no larger resolution on the realistic horizon.

steven i think you are forgetting to mention that sony is probably going to start having a 1st party experience with the same scale as nintendo, that and hard drives might actually be replaced with flash memory at the 40gb 80gb levels.

you are pretty much right on everything else.

just sony has a problem with not using cutting edge tech, they can't resist.

i actually think that ps4 might be able to process two applications at the same time. like, the system can be in the livingroom playing a movie, while simultaneously running a video game on a separate tv from the hard drive.

whether it's flash mem, or dual play like this, it will be something bigger than what you think.

i also think that xbox3 might even be the last one they make as they still have only barely made a profit of off two consoles.

steven787,

seriously, I have no idea.

I just know that, since Sony is losing money, since PS3 is the most expensive (powerfull ?) console, I m guessing longer the NEXT-gen will come, better it will be for Sony (time to recover loss : get market share, drop price, BR adoption)

Hurray for the multithreading nightmare... poor devs can´t take advantage of 6 SPEs, they will suffer with 32-40... lol...

yeah i don't understand why the multithreading is such a big plus in the eyes of gamers... it sucks shit to program for so i've heard. although powerful.

if sony wasdoing this, and they were smart, they would release a devkit to rival something like perl or another intensely powerful useful simple one.

btw: i am not a programmer so don't be offended if something i said doesn't make sense. they just need to make programming a lot simpler, despite what it is capable of, devs need to do it easily.

as a programmer, its not that isn't hard, in comparison the ps1 ps2 were much harder to programan due the use a mips architercture and game developers are lazy.

but the ps3 uses parallell processing, that require to allocate the work asymetrically between SPUs.

it require to give introductions to SPUs to work together, in a same code.

thats great for built for engine, but ports practically require more job done.

Someone's going to jump the gun and make a new console.  Right?  Who ever's in the worst position (I don't mean third place) I mean worst position from a marketing stand point. 

MS might still be in front of PS but they definitely will see declining sales.  These staggered price drops aren't helping either.  One big price drop would have been like an AED, re-jump starting the brand.

November-December 2008 the three year warrantees start running out... How do you think that's going to play on the internet?

Sony will not be able to get the PS3 passed the Wii and be profitable by the time MS decides they need to press the reset button.  Even if they don't release first, Sony marketing will have this in the back of their heads.  MS will force the next gen.

The next PS will be almost exactly a PS3, but it will have some feature that sets it apart.  Sony can not afford to make a totally new console, and they won't be able to afford not too.  It will be a compromise between the SCE guys and Sony.

My Nintendo predictions may be spot on or totally off.  Their behavior is always hard to predict, and it's hard when they only can go down.  They will do two things to maintain growth.  1. Try to increase margins and offer more peripherals and 2. continue to seek out more new gamers.