Why Sony Will Be the Biggest Loser this Gen
Tuesday, 22 July 2008
Many people predicted that upon the PS3s release that it was set to dominate the market as it's predecessor the PS2 did last generation. It is kind of interesting how things can change in the videogame market. The roles have almost completely reversed for the current generation of consoles when one compares them to their previous incarnations. Nintendo seems to have completely turned things aroung and shocked the world by it's massive takeover of the casual sector. While in the meantime Microsoft and Sony seem to be content with battling it out for second place. They completely dismiss Nintendo as being a competitor and only see each other as rivals. No matter which way you analyze it even if Sony does come out on top they will still be the biggest losers in the end. Reason being, they will have lost more market share than either of their competitors.
This is a graphical representation of how the global market was split last generation in percentages
Last generation Sony owned over half of the market and the PS2 is still currently selling well. This is the reason that the PS2 had so many exclusives last generation. The amount of market share Sony had was very attractive for third parties developers. The reason being that they would see massive profit from supporting PS2. Sure there were 3rd party games that were multiplatform but PS2 was the real bread and butter for 3rd parties. People seem to think that there was some sort of brand loyalty between 3rd parties and Sony. This is inaccurate. Profit is number one from a business perspective.
Fast forward to current day. This is the graphical representation of the current global market split represented in percentages.
Xbox 360 released a full year ahead of Wii and PS3. The simple fact is though that in that time the Wii has already surpassed the worldwide install base of the Xbox 360. The Same can't be said for Sony. Sony had the strongest brand recognition last generation and it is painfully obvious the same can't be said for the current market trends.
The install base is what leads to more third party support. At the present time the PS3 has the smallest therefore exclusive third party support has diminished significantly. Many once exclusive games to the Playstation brand have jumped ship. Devil May Cry, Ace Combat, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest - the list could go on and on.
It is true that PS3 sales have picked up. But at the current rate it will take the PS3 years to catch the Wii and even the 360. The PS3 is currently over 5 million units behind even the 360 with the Wii being even further ahead.
One thing is for sure. The market has seen a dramatic shift. It is almost like a repeat of the N64 era. With all the consoles switching positions in the race. One thing is certain though and that is that the install base will be a lot more evenly distributed this generation and Sony will not dominate as they have previously. If sales trends continue on the current path they are following both Microsoft and Nintendo will surpass their previous generation's install base within the next year.
Can the same be said for Sony? Definately not. Sony may end up selling on par with it's competitors but they are by far the biggest losers so far of the current generation. They have lost significant ground while their competitors are about to eclipse their previous generation in install base. And when the console lifecycle reaches it's end Sony will have most likely lost the most overall market share when compared to it's rivals. I keep on reading about this 10 year lifecycle and I find it amusing. Is it really in the consumers best interest to be playing outdated hardware? And how hard is it NOT to release a new console. Over the years console hardware becomes cheaper to produce so the only true benefactors of a long console lifecycle are the companies who make them. And who is to say that Microsoft and Nintendo aren't thinking the exact same thing.
http://neocrisis.com/content/view/1775/134/
Vaio - "Bury me at Milanello" R.I.P AC Milan
In the 60's, people took acid to make the world weird.
Now the world is weird and people take Prozac to make it normal.
If laughing is the best medicine and marijuana makes you laugh
Is marijuana the best medicine?
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind."
“If any creator has not played Mario, then they’re probably not a good creator. That’s something I can say with 100 percent confidence. Mario is, for game creators, the development bible.
