Speaking of advertising/marketing, do you think The Conduit could feature a trailer in the Nintendo Channel? 'Cause that would help sales a lot I reckon.

I think you guys missed my point.  If it sells 1-2m it's only because there's no competition, not because there's a viable market...   There MAY be a market for FPS, but those types of sales won't prove it.   Sales of 3m+ would.    If Conduit sales 1+m with no competition then HVS can safely make a sequel but don't expect a flood of FPS to Wii.   A mere 1m+ would suggest the FPS market is too small to support multiple FPS on the console.   And since The Conduit is not looking like a dynamic enough FPS to pull sales away from the FPSs on HD consoles (for multi-console owners)  nor will it appeal to many casual owners (it will appeal to some) then 1-2m is the most it can realistically hope for.  

It won't prove anything to anyone without surprisingly large sales.   It's no more a Wii core game saviour than Heavenly Sword or Uncharted or Ratchet and Clack were PS3 sales saviours.  It should do well but that's about it.

IMHO, I think people are putting far too much stock into this game.

If it turns out good, it'll be fine, but if it's not, there's gonna be hell to pay.

Not only. People will not buy Conduit if it ain't on their radar (needs advertisment) and they won't buy the game if ain't reviewed as a good game or doesn't look good. The 1-2m in sales has to come from somewhere and it is true that less competition in the FPS area might help, but only that, help.

If Conduit does good, then the market for FPS will grow and other games will do good. But I don't think there will be a flood of FPS games no matter how Conduit does and I really don't want a flood of FPS games for Wii. And I still think that WWII FPS games will do bad on Wii.

I think in the eyes of gamers especially it does. Perhaps half the Wii oowners won't care but I'm sure half will.
For me - it's a big deal I can tell you that.

For the industry I think the weight is tremendous. Companies with big budgets won't green light a project like this if they see others fail.

The hy`pe they created was when they released the first mention of the engine they are using under "engine capable of developing 360 and ps3 like graphics".

What they hyped was the graphics, and so far, they are doing great on that field, now what they need to do is develop a great game. And by the LOOKS of it, it wont be one to dissapoint.

The Conduit is virtually unknown except for those of us who ready gaming blogs every day. This will probably mean that there will not be a good amount available at retail upon release.

No More Heroes had huge blog hype and strong reviews and didn't have a presence at retail. Neither did Okami, Boom Blox, or many other titles.

We know development costs are much lower than PS360, but Wii retail prices are also lower, what kind of sales number would the Conduit need to make the same amount of profit a successful AAA HD game generates. By successful I mean a profitable game that might generate a sequel, not a smash hit.

The Conduit could do very well long term, but what will define very well? 500k? A million? 2 million? And what kind of numbers would it need to help convince other third parties to put more "adult oriented titles" and shooters on the Wii?

If The Conduit bombs, the other third parties will just continue down the path they have chosen already for the Wii. If it does well, will we see a few rushed "mature" titles for other third parties? Will Ubisoft rush out a FPZ?

So to answer the original question, yes. The Conduit has a lot of weight on its shoulders. But the weight is mostly on HV. A hit could mean a profitable graphics engine for them. A bomb will get them an "I told you so" from the publishers.

If it bombs, the other third parties will just continue down the path they have chosen already for the Wii. If it does well, will we see a few rushed "mature" titles for other third parties? Will Ubisoft rush out a FPZ?

Overall though, I agree with amp316 that COD5 really has more weight on its shoulders that The Conduit. It's an already proven successful brand, known IP, and has put focus on a quality Wii version this time around. Too bad it's WWII, but I do hope it sells well. Unfortunately, a huge COD5 might prove much more that a successful Conduit.

By the way: Have somebody heard something good about "Brothers in Arms:Double Time" for Wii? It will be released in August. But maybe its crap, because its from ubisoft.

It'd have to be Goldeneye good for it to sell like crazy.

It's all about the advertising.