I made a comment in another post, but thought it might actually make a good discussion on it's own....

Who's buying this gen of consoles? What did they play last gen?  

I think most Wii owners come from 3 categories.

1. Nintendo fan
2. New to gaming.
3. Previously owned a PS2

I think P3 owners come from 2 categories.

1. PS2 owner
2. BluRay early adaptor.

And I believe 360 owners come from 2 categories.

1. PS2 owner
2. Xbox owner.

If you owned....

If you owned a GC, you probably own a Wii...

If you owned an Xbox you probably now own a 360, or Wii60

If you owned a PS2, you probably own a Wii, 360, or PS3, or have not yet moved on and are waiting for consoles to hit the $200 range. 

Of course some previous console owners moved to handhelds (Japan anyone?), and most to DS (look at where RPG's are thriving).

Of all previous console owners, the biggest loser so far is Sony, it's casuals went to Wii, it's hardcore went to 360 (in NA), it's Japanese base (it's hometown turf) has mostly gone to DS & Wii. 

Who is next to buy? And what will they choose?

Most core gamers have made a descision this gen, the battle now (IMHO) is for the expanded market and PS2 owners waiting for lower prices.

360 could get a lot of the PS2 owners due to a wider variety of software than  the PS3 (hardcore and now casual).  FF multiplat will help, so will Netflix. Even though M$ copied & paid off to get there, the 360 has targeted the previous PS2 audience well this week. They have a casual side, Mii's, movies, graphics, shooters, platformers, karaoke, trivia, and FF. A lot of PS2 owners will wind up with a 360. Especially in NA. In "Others" and Japan, not so much.  

Nintendo will also get a lot of this market, Wiimote, WiiFit, Mario, casual games, music games, VC (games of one's youth), a (somewhat) lower price, family fun.  

Sony will get some as well, they will get most of the HD business in Europe & Japan, lots of GT fans, and a  lot of hardcore gamers and European sports fans. But they won't get the new gamer market, and they won't get all of the previous PS2 owners.    

I think Nintendo gets 90+ % of new gamers, PS3 gets less than 10%, Xbox gets very few new gamers...

Thoughts?

for the most it true for me,except i had a gamecube,i dont have a wii.

Im a Nintendo fan and I had all Nintendo home consoles except the VB.

I suspect there are a lot of PS2 owners out there who are waiting for the PS3 to go down in price...

...however, Wii and 360 are going to get cheaper and might have better line ups, so I don't know if it will hold up, in the long run.

I think many have already gone to Wii, some already went to 360.

Those who are holding out, I think will head over next year if 360 pro/core/premium is 249 or less or if Wii gets some more killer apps for core gamers.

i had a PS2, and i now have a PS3, ive allways liked sony consoles, i loved my PS1 and PS2 and then in 2006 my PSP, so PS3 was a natural choice for me, i was also lucky enough to have enough to buy a PS3 at launch (id been saving for ages)