Where did this gen's sales come from, where will those waiting to buy go?

[radioioRobert]

I made a comment in another post, but thought it might actually make a good discussion on it's own....

Who's buying this gen of consoles? What did they play last gen?  

I think most Wii owners come from 3 categories.

1. Nintendo fan
2. New to gaming.
3. Previously owned a PS2

I think P3 owners come from 2 categories.

1. PS2 owner
2. BluRay early adaptor.

And I believe 360 owners come from 2 categories.

1. PS2 owner
2. Xbox owner.

If you owned....

If you owned a GC, you probably own a Wii...

If you owned an Xbox you probably now own a 360, or Wii60

If you owned a PS2, you probably own a Wii, 360, or PS3, or have not yet moved on and are waiting for consoles to hit the $200 range. 

Of course some previous console owners moved to handhelds (Japan anyone?), and most to DS (look at where RPG's are thriving).

Of all previous console owners, the biggest loser so far is Sony, it's casuals went to Wii, it's hardcore went to 360 (in NA), it's Japanese base (it's hometown turf) has mostly gone to DS & Wii. 

Who is next to buy? And what will they choose?

Most core gamers have made a descision this gen, the battle now (IMHO) is for the expanded market and PS2 owners waiting for lower prices.

360 could get a lot of the PS2 owners due to a wider variety of software than  the PS3 (hardcore and now casual).  FF multiplat will help, so will Netflix. Even though M$ copied & paid off to get there, the 360 has targeted the previous PS2 audience well this week. They have a casual side, Mii's, movies, graphics, shooters, platformers, karaoke, trivia, and FF. A lot of PS2 owners will wind up with a 360. Especially in NA. In "Others" and Japan, not so much.  

Nintendo will also get a lot of this market, Wiimote, WiiFit, Mario, casual games, music games, VC (games of one's youth), a (somewhat) lower price, family fun.  

Sony will get some as well, they will get most of the HD business in Europe & Japan, lots of GT fans, and a  lot of hardcore gamers and European sports fans. But they won't get the new gamer market, and they won't get all of the previous PS2 owners.    

I think Nintendo gets 90+ % of new gamers, PS3 gets less than 10%, Xbox gets very few new gamers...

Thoughts?