In the first 6 months Gears of War 2 will sell:

US: 5 Million
Others: 3 Million

And that will not be lifetime sales. I think this game has a chance of making a huge impact on the gaming market.  We forget I believe, that the 360 install base was much smaller in Nov of 06 when this game first released. The numbers it produced as a first time IP on the size install base it had was bigger than that of a storied franchise in MGS4 on a larger install base than that of the 360 in relevance. What I'm saying for the slow people is: Microsoft released Gears1 to what was a smaller userbase as compared to the user base PS3 had when releasing MGS4. Gears sold more units in less time to a smaller userbase and significanlty increased the amount of 360's sold at the time as well as XBOX Live Memberships increasing by 50% a day for a substantial amount of time whereas MGS4 showed only a small amount of push as far as Hardware (Systems) Sales goes and it's not even on pace to beat Gears1 sales as the situation stands today.

Gears 2 is going to be pushed as much if not more than Halo 3 was, most likely 95% - 98% of the people that bought the first Gears will purchase this one, new 360 customers that never purchased the first will be inclined to check it out and I believe it will sell more consoles as well as increase Live Memberships.

I believe my numbers to be conservative as I believe Gears is a much better Multi- Player Experience than Halo 3 or any other shooter I have Played. It's not always how many players can you get in a room, for me it's about the experience that you have while playing. The experience in Gears far exceeds any other online shooter game I have experienced.

Anyways, that's just my opnion, take it for what it's worth. Thanks for reading.

 I agree that you can have an oppinion... but dont bring numbres in to it..... that just makes u less credible.

Individual software titles don't give as significant a boost as a whole libary of titles do , Gears OF War 2 will cause a spike then hardware will reduce after christmas to normal levels.

Gears is an awesome game...don't get me wrong.

But it just lacks the raw hype Halo and MGS had...

Gears will be the best selling game of the winter season, but wont outsell Halo and wont push the 360 past 3rd place anywhere but US and UK.

For 6 months I gotta say your numbers are believable. Microsoft only has one mainstream exclusive this winter as of now, and Gears 2 is possibly the most marketable game of all time (even more than Halo)

Seriously, that Gears commercial is STILL my favorite gaming commercial of all time. If they can top that, hell, who knows what can happen. But Sony will definitely be contesting every commercial with LBP, Resistance 2, and Killzone 2 commercials especially in December. This holiday season will be amazing.

i can't see GeoW2 doing less than 8M ltd even in the worst case scenario...some facts:

1. geow was a new IP and nevertheless managed to sell 5M+ copies LTD (an achievement that NO ps3 game has reached regardless the fact that was new or proven IP)
2. when geow was launched there were roughly 5.3M x360 "in the wild" (this debunks any argument like "PS3 has a smaller userbase"...now there are 14M ps3 and yet we haven't seen any new/proven IP doing like geow1)
   
3. when geow2 will be launched there will be 20M+ x360 (almost 4 times than at the time of geow's launch)
4. geow if now a proven IP (can sell a mad amount of copies just on its hype ala GTA or Halo)
5. shooter fans are hungry for new games (almost a year has passed form the launch of the 2 block busters in the genere: H3 and CoD4)
6. it will be hyped to death
7. it will be launched in the best time of the year (holiday season)
8. apparently they fixed up the major drawback of the 1st one: multiplayer
9. we could see a price drop in NOV-DEC in US (afterall MS didn't do a real price cut on the 7th of july)

EDIT: BTW speakin' about the "dark side" (but for for similar reasons) i see resistance 2 doing AT LEAST 7M LTD

Halo is a 6th gen franchise. MGS is a 5th gen franchise.

Gears of War was born and raised in good ol' generation 7!! Good to see a new IP doing so well, so soon.

Well numbers mean nothing.. Firstly, the people who may have had a 360 before and bougth gears one may no longer have a 360. Secondly, a lot of the sales we see for the 360 these days are for casual gamers not hardcore.

I think Gears will sell more then any other title in 2008 excluding GTA4. It will be a huge driver for hardware sales given MS marketing and bundles. Best shooter of 2008 hands down.

I also believe it will be nominated for GOTY 08 and go against MGS4 and GTA4.

Graphically it's the best console game. Gameplay has been fined tuned greatly, and from the buzz around the press I think this will hurt R2's sales significantly. Who'd have thought a 360 game would look this good. When average joe sees the footage at prime time eating dinner, they will be gobsmacked.