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i can't see GeoW2 doing less than 8M ltd even in the worst case scenario...some facts:

 

  1. geow was a new IP and nevertheless managed to sell 5M+ copies LTD (an achievement that NO ps3 game has reached regardless the fact that was new or proven IP)
  2. when geow was launched there were roughly 5.3M x360 "in the wild" (this debunks any argument like "PS3 has a smaller userbase"...now there are 14M ps3 and yet we haven't seen any new/proven IP doing like geow1)
  3. when geow2 will be launched there will be 20M+ x360 (almost 4 times than at the time of geow's launch)
  4. geow if now a proven IP (can sell a mad amount of copies just on its hype ala GTA or Halo)
  5. shooter fans are hungry for new games (almost a year has passed form the launch of the 2 block busters in the genere: H3 and CoD4)
  6. it will be hyped to death
  7. it will be launched in the best time of the year (holiday season)
  8. apparently they fixed up the major drawback of the 1st one: multiplayer
  9. we could see a price drop in NOV-DEC in US (afterall MS didn't do a real price cut on the 7th of july)

EDIT: BTW speakin' about the "dark side" (but for for similar reasons) i see resistance 2 doing AT LEAST 7M LTD



2008 year end sales (made in January 2008):

44.2 M 27.1 M 20.8 M