Well, here's my take on this whole deal...
I'm not a "fanboy" of either side. I really am wishing that one way or the other, this whole thing ends and we get to pick a format and go. Either way it won't kill me.
That being said, I do prefer Blu-Ray be that choice. The reason is the extra space (not a TON, but some) and the scratch/damage resistance that is an advantage of that format. I figure, if I have to be stuck with a new format to replace DVD on my TV and computer for the next 5-10 years, it might as well be as durable as possible and have the most possible storage space. That's BD. However, if it goes HD-DVD, it won't kill me. I just want this to be over so I can buy movies without worrying about it at all! I have an HD-DVD AND a Blu-Ray player right now and I want just ONE!
Now, for those saying that if Warner goes BD it will "kill" HD-DVD entirely, you're not quite right. Just look at the VHS/Beta "war." Beta is STILL around and has been used in higher end applications like broadcasting, etc. So I doubt that either HD format will completely go away either. Also, even if HD-DVD wins, the PS3 will ALWAYS use BD for games so the format would exist even if it was just for that. Still, whoever "wins" will take the majority of the consumer market at least, so there are a TON of dollars at stake.
If Warner goes BD exclusively (and I hope they do) it will effectively spell domination for the BD format in the consumer space. At that point we'll be able to start buying movies in BD and not have to worry at some point that our library could eventually be outmoded. Still, HD-DVD WILL still be around, just not flooding the market so if you own that, you'll still be able to find things.
One thing that really bothers me so far is all the bogus back and forth BS about how many players are being sold, etc. First of all, it's the SOFTWARE (movies) being sold that counts as this is what the studios care about. Only the hardware manufacturers care just how many players they're moving. Yeah, studios care about the base as far as they can project their movie sales but bottom line, even if there's only a third as many BD players out there as HD, with the way BD movies are outselling HD-DVD titles, THAT is what the studios care about.
There's something wrong with these numbers that keep coming out about the "standalone players" in any case. Every time I see something it states that "well, the Blu-Ray player numbers include the PS3" so it's like you can't count on those numbers. The most recent I saw said something to the effect that HD-DVD players had reached over 500,000 in the US. This was a RECENT article. Then it said that BD players were just over 2 million but again you can't count that because it includes the PS3. Looking at the numbers on VGchartz, there are over THREE MILLION PS3's in the US alone. So the numbers are off! I keep seeing this kind of comparison that then claims that the BD numbers include the PS3 but if they do then the PS3 numbers are REALLY TERRIBLE. So, either those numbers DON'T include the PS3 in reality, or someone's really misleading us on purpose. If you think about it, since the numbers are wrong, it's more LIKELY that BD standalone players are more numerous than HD-DVD players. After all, the movie sales figures make more sense that way as well.
Sure, the PS3 helps the BD movie market, but you can't have it both ways. You can't say that everyone's using the PS3 for movies or you have to count them as valid BD players. Yet, software sales are decent for the number of installed base so you have to accept that many if not most PS3's are being used to play games. Which is it? Either the PS3 counts or it doesn't. I think it's pretty clear that the PS3 at least counts a bit towards the whole BD/HD-DVD war. Even if PS3's are being purchased primarily for games, the chances are strong that someone will at least purchase a few movies to check them out. Thus, market influence. Considering the numbers the PS3 is starting to build up for sales, that's a considerable influence on studios and the market in general. This is the reason I believe BD IS going to win this. The movie sales are far in BD's favor and with at least the possibility and a good probability that even those just buying PS3's are going to buy a few movies, this weighs strongly in BD's favor. After all, once they watch a few movies on the PS3 and as prices continue to fall, they're much more likely to buy a standalone BD player and start purchasing BD movies in earnest.
With the recent moves makeing the PS3 no longer the cheapest BD player, I think we're just starting to see this happen. During 2008, if nothing changes before that, BD is going to pick up even more steam. This will make the market solification even more likely. The great price reduction in HD-TV's that started to happen a few months before Christmas is going to continue and accellerate. This will assist BD even more as well as the PS3 itself, since it is tied into people's minds as a movie player as well. People are far more conscious of the PS3 being a "high definition" device due to the built in BD player, than they are of competing consoles for example. That's natural and it's part of the strategy Sony chose to use. It's far from certain if it will work for them, but it seems to be starting to pay off and gain momentum.
In any case, again, I just hope that it goes one way or the other soon. I'm tired of it as a consumer and REALLY tired of having some movies ONLY in one format or another. I think that's BS and the main reason we as consumers need this war over NOW. I mean, let's say BD fails. What about all those BD-only movies I have years down the road when I may not be able to get a BD player, or at least not readily? Same for HD-DVD. I thought there was absolutely no good reason for Paramount to go exclusive, for example. It was just bad for consumers. At that point and until a market decision is made, I don't think there is ANY good reason for ANY studio to change their allegience to the point of exclusivity. Maybe go dual format, but certainly not exclusive. Now that we've gone through the whole year it's obvious from sales that if anything, it makes sense to go BD only if you're going to make a move. However, it's still dubious as sales period are so small compared to regular DVD as to be laughable.
I only hope that if someone like Warner DOES end up going exclusive that the industry takes steps at that point to wrap this "war" up and make things good and safe for us as consumers. I don't have a lot of faith in this happening though as there's just too many dollars at stake and as shown with the Paramount debacle, these companies only care about those dollars, not what's best for their consumers.
