Regards disappointments. How do you feel about current pace? :

Interestingly yesterday I actually saw a stand alone HD-DVD player for $188.00. Does anyone think that we will see some $100.00 models by the holiday season? A couple weeks ago the low end price was $200.00 it seems. So are we looking at a price reduction of $20.00 a month? Perhaps even $30.00 per month through the end of the year?

no, I'm me.

I know that the two "wars" aren't directly comparable, but there is still a lot of similarities. And I find it interesting that the same people who say one war is definitely over and HD-DVD have no hope are stll adament that the PS3 is still in with a shot (or even, somehow, believe that the PS3 is most likely to win)

despite what you may say about the format war and the console war being "totally different", they are very similar. Personally, I don't think either of them are over yet, and for the same reasons. Neither have really hit the mass market, where the big numbers are sold. But you have to be crazy to put your money on the PS3 or HD-DVD.

Well, that is very true, Toshiba does own the patents on DVD, and that will provide with a significant influx of cash for many years to come, but the subsidizing of players has got to be hurting them.

As to your Warner/Disney comment, Disney recently started a road show dedicated to promoting Blu-Ray that is travelling across the US.  They seem to be supporting the format rather heavily, and it seems unlikely that they would suddenly go neutral after having invested so much in the format.  As for Warner, they were initially HD DVD exclusive, only going neutral just a few months prior to HD DVD's launch, so for them to reverse this position, cutting 65% of their potential disc sales, is also very unlikely to happen. 

Of course, that is assuming you are only talking of the immediate future.  Both of these companies could abandon Blu-Ray in the future should HD DVD start to really gain momentum.

Also, considering the fact that the studios are in this to make money, it would be far more likely for Universal to go neutral than Disney, given the fact that Blu-Ray discs are outselling HD DVD discs on an average of 2:1.  Universal would be tripling the potential sales of their discs, where as Disney's potential sales would only increase 1.5x.  As it is, the only reason Paramoun has gone HD DVD exclusive is because they have recieved "incentives" from somebody in the HD DVD camp (most likely Toshiba or Microsoft), and even then it is only a temporary exclusivity of around 18 months.  If Paramount truly had confidence in the HD DVD format, that would've declared full exclusive support for free.  Temporary exclusivity in exchange for certain rewards doesn't show that they forsee HD DVD to win this battle by any means. 

That last part is wrong. Neither Universal, nor Disney, are making much money off of hi-def sales. It is still too early in the game, and not enough volume to bring mastering costs down (although they are getting there).

Basically, the way to get money is not to support one format over the other, but to get hi-def in the mainstream. Until they do, this format war is merely a huge experiment to see which side, and which methods they use, will get there.

EDIT: And Paramount and Dreamworks have given an indefinate commitment to HD-DVD, not a temporary one. That is just wishful thinking made up by bloggers.

Yes, but they ARE making money, even if it's not that much.  And, as I said, 3x the sales is better than 1.5x, so Universal would be more likely to go neutral than Disney.

And you are correct when you say making the most money ultimately boils down to getting the formats into the mainstream market.  However, this format war is keeping both formats from going mainstream.  This is why some studios are format exclusive.  They chose the format that they believe had the best chance of success, and tried to help it along by providing exclusive content for that format, helping it to succeed even faster.  The main reason Fox chose to go Blu-Ray exclusive was because they knew that every ps3 would  contain a Blu-Ray, and that owuld give the format a considerable edge in the war.  Of course, at the time of their exclusivity announcement they thought the ps3 would release in Spring of '06 and sell better than it is.  Either way, they supported Blu-Ray because it had the best chance of winning, and it still looks that way.  Of course, they also chose Blu-Ray because of the BD+ copy protection in addition to the AACS that HD DVD also has.   I can't see Disney, Fox, or Lionsgate suddenly going neutral when Blu-Ray still has such a strong lead.

As to Paramount/Dreamworks, I did not know that it was confirmed that they have gone fully HD DVD exclusive.  Got a link? (It's not that I don't believe you, I'd just like to read up on the matter myself. :) )

 I really have to dispute that this format war is holding them back. Surveys have shown it's unawareness of the formats that is keeping most people from buying them. Yet for those who are, both formats are still selling better and faster than DVD did in its first year. Once public awareness grows, and if surveys show that mainstream consumers are waiting this format war out, then the war will be holding hi-def back. Until then, it's not the format war that is keeping blu-ray and HD-DVD from the mainstream.

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The format war is probably good for industry. This is the main reason why players are getting cheaper in that speed.

 Then they might hit mass market prices before HDTVs do.