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Forums - Sales - Will PS3 win the HD format war?

Maybe they just didn't watnt to, but I hardly doubt such a conspiracy as this is the real reason. It's as bad as the people claiming Apollo 11 was fake, as was 9/11.



One person's experience or opinion never shows the general consensus

PSN ID: Tispower

MSN: tispower1@hotmail.co.uk

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http://www.n4g.com/industrynews/News-46087.aspx
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Have fun... =))



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Sony will NEVER offer dual players, especially with the ass whooping Br is giving hddvd now.



Tispower said:
Maybe they just didn't watnt to, but I hardly doubt such a conspiracy as this is the real reason. It's as bad as the people claiming Apollo 11 was fake, as was 9/11.

 Two companies deciding to maintain to formats, in a way would gain interest, is a publicity move more than a conspiracy.

 And if there is a deal, it doesnt matter what is in the lead. The point is that those holding out would care thanks to this format war.

 Of course Sony sopporters take to blu-ray, but for those that don't, HD-DVD acts as the good cop, so either way, support is on the side of high definition. 



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

Blue3 said:
Sony will NEVER offer dual players, especially with the ass whooping Br is giving hddvd now.


http://www.amazon.com/LG-BH100-High-Definition-Blu-ray-Player/dp/B000NNK9LY/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/103-1994450-0223805?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1182404304&sr=8-1

LG BH100 High-Definition HD DVD/Blu-ray Player

Price:$1,199.00
Thats just the first generation. Blu-ray players cost $1200 a year ago also, so I think the price of these hybrid players should halve by this time next year.
HD players are nice and all, but the market is pretty small for them (people who have 1080p TVs are the only ones who can get the most out of it).
From VHS to DVD the difference was greater: No tape to mess up or find tracking on. Didnt have to rewind them. Could skip to a chapter. Had an awesome menu, which VHS didn't have.
From DVD to HD-movies, the difference is there, but its not as much of a leap. Just higher res, thats it. I'm not saying these players won't catch on, but it will take a few years before HD movie sales beat out DVD movie sales.


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it doesnt work that way. the combo player has 2 laser heads. it is only the cost of those that make it so dam expensive. the other part is that there is little competition in that area, they think being the only combo player gives them an edge. on the other hand the cheapest combo right now costs $800. buying both is a better solution.

the other thing about this war, its almost over. as soon as blu ray prices get to 300 than people will start buying. once the consumer buys it than it will be ubiquitous and they dont want to buy hd dvd since its losing. so price and universal is the only thing keeping the war alive in america (everywhere else its dead and gone to blu ray).



my pillars of gaming: kh, naughty dog, insomniac, ssb, gow, ff

i officially boycott boycotts.  crap.

soccerdrew17 said:
it doesnt work that way. the combo player has 2 laser heads. it is only the cost of those that make it so dam expensive. the other part is that there is little competition in that area, they think being the only combo player gives them an edge. on the other hand the cheapest combo right now costs $800. buying both is a better solution.

the other thing about this war, its almost over. as soon as blu ray prices get to 300 than people will start buying. once the consumer buys it than it will be ubiquitous and they dont want to buy hd dvd since its losing. so price and universal is the only thing keeping the war alive in america (everywhere else its dead and gone to blu ray).

 Do you have any proof HD-DVD is dead everywhere else? I have yet to see someone on a board back up that claim with proof.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

z64dan said:
Blue3 said:
Sony will NEVER offer dual players, especially with the ass whooping Br is giving hddvd now.


http://www.amazon.com/LG-BH100-High-Definition-Blu-ray-Player/dp/B000NNK9LY/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/103-1994450-0223805?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1182404304&sr=8-1

LG BH100 High-Definition HD DVD/Blu-ray Player

Price:$1,199.00
Thats just the first generation. Blu-ray players cost $1200 a year ago also, so I think the price of these hybrid players should halve by this time next year.
HD players are nice and all, but the market is pretty small for them (people who have 1080p TVs are the only ones who can get the most out of it).
From VHS to DVD the difference was greater: No tape to mess up or find tracking on. Didnt have to rewind them. Could skip to a chapter. Had an awesome menu, which VHS didn't have.
From DVD to HD-movies, the difference is there, but its not as much of a leap. Just higher res, thats it. I'm not saying these players won't catch on, but it will take a few years before HD movie sales beat out DVD movie sales.

I just want to address the highlighted portion for a second. I looked up some info the other day due to gballzack making up the 10% number ofr hdtv adoption.

She was pretty close, actually...for 2005... http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6282439.html says it was about 12% at the end up 2005. HD format players weren't even available until Spring 2006.

http://www.audaud.com/article.php?ArticleID=1286 says March 2006: 15%.

http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P1595 says by 2008: 40%.

http://news.ecoustics.com/bbs/messages/10381/364162.html says 78% of consumers want HDTV.

I can't seem to find numbers for 2006 and 2007 other than 15% of people having both HDTV and HD cable I believe.

Anyway, it should become more clear by this fall when Nielsen will begin tracking hdtv penetration: http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/nielsen-to-beging-tracking-hdtv-penetration/

 

I also want to point out that to get the most out of standard dvds you still need an hdtv with upconverting somehow, but that didn't stop dvd from becoming popular. 720p/1080i is still an improvement. As for myself, I'm waiting for an affordable 1080p TV, but I'm not the average consumer. That Hitachi survey reveals that most people are confused about hdtvs even though 78% want one.

I think it would accelerate even faster if blu-ray just won out now. There's some momentum there with blockbuster, starz, and BD+ being completed. That should free up Fox/MGM and Disney that were waiting on the piracy protection that probably won't last very long either. I do hope it convinces a studio or 2 that blu-ray is safer for them to release movies on, but we'll see.

I don't disagree with much else you said, btw. It took DVD many years (2001 I believe I quoted the other day) to outsell VHS in a single year. I didn't quote you because of the dual-player, but I might as well comment on that: I hope it doesn't catch up in price because I want the superior format to win, but you are right that it might end up the standard since hd-dvd is hanging on for now.



windbane said:
z64dan said:
Blue3 said:
Sony will NEVER offer dual players, especially with the ass whooping Br is giving hddvd now.


http://www.amazon.com/LG-BH100-High-Definition-Blu-ray-Player/dp/B000NNK9LY/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/103-1994450-0223805?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1182404304&sr=8-1

LG BH100 High-Definition HD DVD/Blu-ray Player

Price:$1,199.00
Thats just the first generation. Blu-ray players cost $1200 a year ago also, so I think the price of these hybrid players should halve by this time next year.
HD players are nice and all, but the market is pretty small for them (people who have 1080p TVs are the only ones who can get the most out of it).
From VHS to DVD the difference was greater: No tape to mess up or find tracking on. Didnt have to rewind them. Could skip to a chapter. Had an awesome menu, which VHS didn't have.
From DVD to HD-movies, the difference is there, but its not as much of a leap. Just higher res, thats it. I'm not saying these players won't catch on, but it will take a few years before HD movie sales beat out DVD movie sales.

I just want to address the highlighted portion for a second. I looked up some info the other day due to gballzack making up the 10% number ofr hdtv adoption.

She was pretty close, actually...for 2005... http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6282439.html says it was about 12% at the end up 2005. HD format players weren't even available until Spring 2006.

http://www.audaud.com/article.php?ArticleID=1286 says March 2006: 15%.

http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P1595 says by 2008: 40%.

http://news.ecoustics.com/bbs/messages/10381/364162.html says 78% of consumers want HDTV.

I can't seem to find numbers for 2006 and 2007 other than 15% of people having both HDTV and HD cable I believe.

Anyway, it should become more clear by this fall when Nielsen will begin tracking hdtv penetration: http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/nielsen-to-beging-tracking-hdtv-penetration/

 

I also want to point out that to get the most out of standard dvds you still need an hdtv with upconverting somehow, but that didn't stop dvd from becoming popular. 720p/1080i is still an improvement. As for myself, I'm waiting for an affordable 1080p TV, but I'm not the average consumer. That Hitachi survey reveals that most people are confused about hdtvs even though 78% want one.

I think it would accelerate even faster if blu-ray just won out now. There's some momentum there with blockbuster, starz, and BD+ being completed. That should free up Fox/MGM and Disney that were waiting on the piracy protection that probably won't last very long either. I do hope it convinces a studio or 2 that blu-ray is safer for them to release movies on, but we'll see.

I don't disagree with much else you said, btw. It took DVD many years (2001 I believe I quoted the other day) to outsell VHS in a single year. I didn't quote you because of the dual-player, but I might as well comment on that: I hope it doesn't catch up in price because I want the superior format to win, but you are right that it might end up the standard since hd-dvd is hanging on for now.


 I really dispute that it would accelerate if blu-ray won right now. Most people with a PS3 can easily buy blu-ray, but most don't buy blu-ray films, unless they have HDTVs. Unless someone can provide demographical data that suggests people buy HD films without HDTVs, their claims, of the format war slowing down HD adoption, are false. HDTV adoption has to grow more before HD film adoption does.

 Until HDTV sales catch on more (notice I am writing "until", not "if"), anyone, who claims either side is winning, is a liar.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

 BTW, the reason I think this format war is a lie is because both sides are lying that they are trying to beat the other side. Unless Sony and Toshiba have learned nothing from past mistakes, they know that when you introduce something to the mainstream market, the mainstream market is the ONLY goal. It's not outselling any competition, or making it disappear. That would be nice, but if you hit mainsteam, you sell so much, that you can live with even a minoirty of a market that huge.

 So if the goal is the mainstream market, then why is there so much talk about beating the other side? Well making the same assumption about Sony and Toshiba learning from the past, they know that DVD isn't going to go away just because there is a new format. People actually have to care about the new format.

 But what if people don't care about HD that much? Most HDTV sales are reported to be because of the widescreen and thin size of the TVs. Those can still work with DVD, so HD films aren't that vital. Some other value for HD films have to be given.

 Hypothetically, what if there hadn't been a format war, and both sides went with either HD-DVD, blu-ray, or a hybrid? If you believe the market would jump all over it, you are deluding yourselves, and I don't think Sony and Toshiba are that stupid. The people who support blu-ray now would support a unified format, because of the resolution, capacity, and the PS3 support, but others would be resistant to the lack of other features, introduction so soon after DVD caught on, and the fact that the players and PS3 cost so much. For those people now, HD-DVDs lower player price, and non inclusion on any system, makes it look like the good cop, so they might side with HD-DVD, but that still means they take a side towards high defintion films. And even the wait and see people, like admittedly me, are still taking a side towards HD, just in the future.

 Now I am NOT suggesting a conspiracy. That would imply several companies making an elaborat plan for this. I am suggesting Sony and Toshiba are doing a simple game of good cop, bad cop. 



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs