BTW, the reason I think this format war is a lie is because both sides are lying that they are trying to beat the other side. Unless Sony and Toshiba have learned nothing from past mistakes, they know that when you introduce something to the mainstream market, the mainstream market is the ONLY goal. It's not outselling any competition, or making it disappear. That would be nice, but if you hit mainsteam, you sell so much, that you can live with even a minoirty of a market that huge.
So if the goal is the mainstream market, then why is there so much talk about beating the other side? Well making the same assumption about Sony and Toshiba learning from the past, they know that DVD isn't going to go away just because there is a new format. People actually have to care about the new format.
But what if people don't care about HD that much? Most HDTV sales are reported to be because of the widescreen and thin size of the TVs. Those can still work with DVD, so HD films aren't that vital. Some other value for HD films have to be given.
Hypothetically, what if there hadn't been a format war, and both sides went with either HD-DVD, blu-ray, or a hybrid? If you believe the market would jump all over it, you are deluding yourselves, and I don't think Sony and Toshiba are that stupid. The people who support blu-ray now would support a unified format, because of the resolution, capacity, and the PS3 support, but others would be resistant to the lack of other features, introduction so soon after DVD caught on, and the fact that the players and PS3 cost so much. For those people now, HD-DVDs lower player price, and non inclusion on any system, makes it look like the good cop, so they might side with HD-DVD, but that still means they take a side towards high defintion films. And even the wait and see people, like admittedly me, are still taking a side towards HD, just in the future.
Now I am NOT suggesting a conspiracy. That would imply several companies making an elaborat plan for this. I am suggesting Sony and Toshiba are doing a simple game of good cop, bad cop.