Nintendo Wii - 135 million

Looking at the PS2, which has similar numbers, you see a break down of sellthrough something like 49 million (Americas), 46 million (Others), 26 million (Japan) at the moment, and it will probably end up at 51.5/46.6/27.4 (125 million) when the year is over, before finally ending at around 130-135 million (Sony still shipped 6 million+ in the last 6 months..) as Sony stops production of PS2 sometime in 2008.

In my best case scenario for Wii you see something like this, and it is largely dependent on the Wii package being upgraded in time.  It assumes Nintendo is going to release some mechanism for HD TV when adoption rates get high enough in 2009/2010.  I really doubt though with the success of Wii that Nintendo would just make a Wii with prettier graphics next gen.  My best scenario entails sales of 50 million in the Americas, 50 million in Europe/Others, and 35 million in Japan...Realistically, I expect something more like a 33/28/27 million total per region.

Year   LTD       USA  Price 

2006 3 million ($250, includes Wii Sports)

2007 18 million ($250, includes Wii Sports)

2008  36 million ($250, includes Wii Sports)

2009   60 million (*$200, includes Wii Sports)

2010   80 million (*$150, includes Wii Sports, includes HD upgrade from this point on)

2011   98 million (*$129, includes Wii Sports)

2012   113 million (*$100, includes Wii Sports - N Next releases in Nov)

2013   123 million (*$79, includes Wii Sports)

2014   129 million ($79, includes Wii Sports)

2015   133 million  ($79, includes Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Music & an extra controller)

2016   135 million  (*$50, includes Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Music, & an extra controller) 

 * - full year price drop

Playstation 3 - 80 million

This is mainly based on the assumption that Sony will somehow win Europe, and sell at least 30 million consoles in the Americas.  I don't see it happening..I expect Sony to be at more like 65 million when things are said and done.

Year    LTD           USA Price

2006 - 1.5 million ($600/$500)

2007 - 9 million    ($600 until Sept 31, $500 from Oct 1)

2008 - 19 million  ($500)

2009 - 30 million  ($500 until March 31, $400 until Sept 31, $350 from Oct 1)

2010 - 45 million  ($350 until March 31, $250 rest of the year)

2011 - 57 million  ($250 until Oct 1, $200 rest of the year)

2012 - 66 million ($200)

2013 - 73 million ($150 starting Jan 1)

2014 - 77 million ($100 all year)

2015 - 79 million ($79 all year)

2016 - 80 million ($50 to clear out stock)

Xbox 360 - 70 million

Not having any real presnece (5%) of the Japanese market in total sales is going to kill them.  Still, Microsoft realistically will double their market share, and then some, this gen, which is why i expect sales of 57 million or so.  Here is my best case realistic scenario though.

Year     LTD           USA Price 

2005 - 1 million     ($400/$300)

2006 - 8.5 million  ($400/$300)

2007 - 16 million   ($479/$400/$300)

2008 - 28 million   (Main SKU $400 until March 31, $300 after)

2009 - 36 million ($350/$300/$200 until Oct 1, then $300/$250/$179)

2010 - 45 million ($300/$250/$129)

2011 - 53 million ($250/$199 - old SKU gone)

2012 - 59 million ($200/$149)

2013 - 64 million ($169/$129)

2014 - 67 million ($139/$79)

2015 - 69 million ($100/$50)

2016 - 70 million ($79, old sku gone)