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Forums - Gaming - Why do people think DQIX will sell monumentally better than VIII?

joseph21 on 13 July 2008

the ps2 had equals number in japan
and dragon quest VIII sold around 4 million there, but in america and others wasn't such a huge seller.

but ff10 was able.

 

cheaper doesn't equals sales-

japan DS market is saturated.



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joseph21 on 13 July 2008
mrstickball said:
jman8 said:

So I was reading a couple of the "FFXIII=Epic Fail" threads, and a number of people mentioned how Dragon Quest IX is going to have absolutely massive sales now that the series is on the DS. I'm not saying the game isn't going to outsell FFXIII, but do people really think DQIX is now going to sell much more than the 4.69 million that DQVIII sold? 

I highly doubt it and here's why. A) The PS2 and DS have similar sized user bases. B) DQ has always been a very conservative traditional RPG series. What has changed about the DQIX that's going to all of a sudden draw in a larger fan base? 

Maybe people think that DQIX is going to make way more money now that it's on the cheaper-to-develop-for DS. Even that thought is flawed b/c the revenue for these games is so much greater than the cost that profit isn't going to all of a sudden double. On top of that, you could sell PS2 games for $50 while DS games typically go for $40 max, which offsets some of the development cost advantage of the DS. 

Your thoughts?

A few notes:

The Nintendo DS has a vastly higher userbase when DQIX launches. The PS2 had 17 million users, the NDS is at 23 million users and growing (could be near 25m when DQIX hits).

Even though DQ is a traditional series, it's also a transcending blockbuster series. Look at NSMB. Nothing earth-shattering about it, but it sold 5 million units in Japan. DQIX can see similar sales, I think, should it be a good game.

Also, the revenue argument is bunk. Square Enix charges more cash in Japan for their carts than normal games. A DS cart of DQIX will most likely go for around 6,000 yen unless something crazy happens (roughly $55 USD).

Lets look at a few key sales indicators for NDS performance of RPGs, versus the PS2:

Nintendo DS Sales Playstation 2 Sales
Pokemon D/P 5,500,000 Dragon Quest VIII 3,538,000
Dragon Quest M: J 1,458,000 Dragon Quest V 1,611,000
Dragon Quest IV 1,200,000 Super Robot Taisen Impact 632,000
Final Fantasy III 1,008,000 Final Fantasy X-2 1,960,000
Final Fantasy IV 612,000
Super Robot Taisen 278,000

Those are just a few numbers that have some sort of relevancy against eachother. At any rate, the DS has held pretty good vs. PS2 remakes (DQ IV vs. DQ V). Again, adding the userbase of the DS, and the fact that the DS had a great track record with Pokemon D/P selling well above DQVIII on PS2, I think we'll see DQIX sell at least 4 million units on the DS...Maybe even 4,500,000.

I think the biggest thing about DQIX is that S-E actually produces enough carts to satisfy user demand. Dragon Quest Monster: Joker (1.4m units) had a shipping collapse for MONTHS. It's sales were stymied for a long time thanks to horrid production capacities either by Square Enix (not ordering enough carts) or Nintendo (not producing enough to safisfy S-E demand).

 

 

 

FF12 sales are over 3.6 ww.

 

if you are comparing only japan then you are wrong again. because you are using DS ww sales.

 



ZenfoldorVGI on 13 July 2008
MontanaHatchet said:
Shameless said:
Playing an RPG on a handheld sucks. That should be the reason.

Handhelds are (no pun intended) more hands on. They're meant for games which require extreme concentration and quick reflexes with one's own fingers. RPGs rarely require that, so I agree with your point.

As for the TC's point, well, let me come back to you (you'll get some good responses anyways).

IMO, wrong, lol. Handheld games are not designed for "fast, responsive" gameplay. In fact, they are pretty terrible for it. The best selling games for handheld devices have been broad and diverse, and indeed some of the best games on the PSP, like The Lions War and Disgaea re even slower paced than standard JRPGs. In fact, many great and great selling DS games don't even use "fingers" but instead a stylus and touch controls.

For instance, the Phoenix Wright series, Hotel Dusk, Elite Beat Agents, The World Ends With You, all of these games(the best of the DS) can be played without even using your fingers.

For handheld games, imo, RPGs are, and always will be the king.

 

Then again, it is just an opinion, and no opinion can be right, but RPG's are the reason a lot of people buy handhelds, including myself. They are one of the few experiences that stay very similar from handheld to console transition.

 

The reason people think DQIX will be big on DS is because New Super Mario Brothers sold like 14 million copies. If a Nintendo game can appeal to that broad of an audience, then perhaps DQIX can find some of that same audience as well.

That said, I think it will sell very similarly to VIII.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

Stats87 on 13 July 2008
joseph21 said:
mrstickball said:
jman8 said:

So I was reading a couple of the "FFXIII=Epic Fail" threads, and a number of people mentioned how Dragon Quest IX is going to have absolutely massive sales now that the series is on the DS. I'm not saying the game isn't going to outsell FFXIII, but do people really think DQIX is now going to sell much more than the 4.69 million that DQVIII sold?

I highly doubt it and here's why. A) The PS2 and DS have similar sized user bases. B) DQ has always been a very conservative traditional RPG series. What has changed about the DQIX that's going to all of a sudden draw in a larger fan base?

Maybe people think that DQIX is going to make way more money now that it's on the cheaper-to-develop-for DS. Even that thought is flawed b/c the revenue for these games is so much greater than the cost that profit isn't going to all of a sudden double. On top of that, you could sell PS2 games for $50 while DS games typically go for $40 max, which offsets some of the development cost advantage of the DS.

Your thoughts?

A few notes:

The Nintendo DS has a vastly higher userbase when DQIX launches. The PS2 had 17 million users, the NDS is at 23 million users and growing (could be near 25m when DQIX hits).

Even though DQ is a traditional series, it's also a transcending blockbuster series. Look at NSMB. Nothing earth-shattering about it, but it sold 5 million units in Japan. DQIX can see similar sales, I think, should it be a good game.

Also, the revenue argument is bunk. Square Enix charges more cash in Japan for their carts than normal games. A DS cart of DQIX will most likely go for around 6,000 yen unless something crazy happens (roughly $55 USD).

Lets look at a few key sales indicators for NDS performance of RPGs, versus the PS2:

Nintendo DS Sales Playstation 2 Sales
Pokemon D/P 5,500,000 Dragon Quest VIII 3,538,000
Dragon Quest M: J 1,458,000 Dragon Quest V 1,611,000
Dragon Quest IV 1,200,000 Super Robot Taisen Impact 632,000
Final Fantasy III 1,008,000 Final Fantasy X-2 1,960,000
Final Fantasy IV 612,000
Super Robot Taisen 278,000

Those are just a few numbers that have some sort of relevancy against eachother. At any rate, the DS has held pretty good vs. PS2 remakes (DQ IV vs. DQ V). Again, adding the userbase of the DS, and the fact that the DS had a great track record with Pokemon D/P selling well above DQVIII on PS2, I think we'll see DQIX sell at least 4 million units on the DS...Maybe even 4,500,000.

I think the biggest thing about DQIX is that S-E actually produces enough carts to satisfy user demand. Dragon Quest Monster: Joker (1.4m units) had a shipping collapse for MONTHS. It's sales were stymied for a long time thanks to horrid production capacities either by Square Enix (not ordering enough carts) or Nintendo (not producing enough to safisfy S-E demand).

 

 

 

FF12 sales are over 3.6 ww.

 

if you are comparing only japan then you are wrong again. because you are using DS ww sales.

 

 

according to this site, they're 5.1 Million WW



cwbys21 on 13 July 2008

I think it should be noted that it is a very safe assumption that DQ8 got a sales bump because it came packaged with a demo for FF12. I was only slightly interested in DQ8 for the game itself, probably would have gotten it when it got cheap, except for that demo so I went out and bought it early.



God hates console fanboys.

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Riachu on 14 July 2008
ZenfoldorVGI said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Shameless said:
Playing an RPG on a handheld sucks. That should be the reason.

Handhelds are (no pun intended) more hands on. They're meant for games which require extreme concentration and quick reflexes with one's own fingers. RPGs rarely require that, so I agree with your point.

As for the TC's point, well, let me come back to you (you'll get some good responses anyways).

IMO, wrong, lol. Handheld games are not designed for "fast, responsive" gameplay. In fact, they are pretty terrible for it. The best selling games for handheld devices have been broad and diverse, and indeed some of the best games on the PSP, like The Lions War and Disgaea re even slower paced than standard JRPGs. In fact, many great and great selling DS games don't even use "fingers" but instead a stylus and touch controls.

For instance, the Phoenix Wright series, Hotel Dusk, Elite Beat Agents, The World Ends With You, all of these games(the best of the DS) can be played without even using your fingers.

For handheld games, imo, RPGs are, and always will be the king.

 

Then again, it is just an opinion, and no opinion can be right, but RPG's are the reason a lot of people buy handhelds, including myself. They are one of the few experiences that stay very similar from handheld to console transition.

 

The reason people think DQIX will be big on DS is because New Super Mario Brothers sold like 14 million copies. If a Nintendo game can appeal to that broad of an audience, then perhaps DQIX can find some of that same audience as well.

That said, I think it will sell very similarly to VIII.

But Mario is a character that pretty much everyone including the people who don't play games know about.  Dragon Quest doesn't have the same mass appeal Mario does.  DQ is huge in Japan but it will never reach the level of popularity in the West due to obvious and not so obvious reasons.

 



 

http://www.youtube.com/user/InvaderZimGuy1?feature=mhum

outlawauron on 14 July 2008

@ cwbys

Not gonna lie. That's why I got it at $50.



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Riachu on 14 July 2008
cwbys21 said:
I think it should be noted that it is a very safe assumption that DQ8 got a sales bump because it came packaged with a demo for FF12. I was only slightly interested in DQ8 for the game itself, probably would have gotten it when it got cheap, except for that demo so I went out and bought it early.

Too bad the demo was lackluster and it didn't due the full game justice.  I personally didn't like DQVIII that much.  It was a good game, it just wasn't my cup of tea.

 



 

http://www.youtube.com/user/InvaderZimGuy1?feature=mhum

jman8 on 14 July 2008

I consider myself a pretty big RPG fan, but I didn't get DQVIII b/c I read in reviews and heard from a friend that it was really old school and quite a level cruncher. I'm guessing IX will be the same way, so I have little interest as well. Not to mention I don't own a DS yet....



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

cwbys21 on 14 July 2008

Yeah the demo was nothing compared to the actual game but it was worth $50 to play it and DQ8 actually turned out to be quite enjoyable. That is why I am strongly considering getting a DS just for 9 even though I already have a psp and don't play it enough or want to spend the money to play the games that are interesting to me.

btw, have we even seen any screen shots to dq9 yet? know anything about how it will play on the ds? because they seem to really like the cell shaded look that they gave 8 and it was popular and they used it in the wii game with a really long name.



God hates console fanboys.