I've been trying get even a rough estimate on how much money Sony stands to make off Blu-Ray patents if it does eventually become the dominant media platform.

Really, if anyone has any math or information to help me out on this one, I'd be greatful. I've been doing my own cursory mathematics, but I'm light on facts. My ballpark figure was around 300-500 million. Is that horribly off?  

This page describes the various fees for DVD. I can't imagine that Blu-ray or HD-DVD could cost a lot more, otherwise nobody would license them.

http://www.dvddemystified.com/dvdfaq.html#6.1 

there was a thread way back when when i also tried to find a figure for how much sony can make off BR... and yeah, somewhere in the 300-500 mln was my estimate.

EDIT: which seems like a very low number.  but i can't imagine it being more than $1 bln. 

It's not that low when you realize how many ways the profits are split. 

If Sony got the profits for all the Blu-Ray patents, sure. But there are 10-15 companies that each get their own split. To reach 1 billion dollars, either 1) Sony would need a very disproportionaly large share of the total profits or 2) I have ot be way, way way off on how much money these types of patents bring in. I thought it was in the 700-1.5 billion area, total. Even at the maximum, splitting that 10-15 ways doesn't come close to a billion per member.