How much money will Sony make off Blu-Ray?

[Bodhesatva]

Lingyis said:

there was a thread way back when when i also tried to find a figure for how much sony can make off BR... and yeah, somewhere in the 300-500 mln was my estimate.

EDIT: which seems like a very low number. but i can't imagine it being more than $1 bln.

It's not that low when you realize how many ways the profits are split. 

If Sony got the profits for all the Blu-Ray patents, sure. But there are 10-15 companies that each get their own split. To reach 1 billion dollars, either 1) Sony would need a very disproportionaly large share of the total profits or 2) I have ot be way, way way off on how much money these types of patents bring in. I thought it was in the 700-1.5 billion area, total. Even at the maximum, splitting that 10-15 ways doesn't come close to a billion per member.