| Pristine20 said: My reasoning: 1) The x360 will see its successor by 2011 due to hardware problems, DVD limitations and M$ insistence being the first on the scene and this time around M$ would have made money to cover R&D costs. 2) The wii will get an upgrade to HD since SDtvs would eventually become obsolete and 512 mb of memory is just pitiful for current standards. 3) The ps3 would last 2 generations while its developments costs ultimately fall and it becomes like the ps2 gen again where Sony was around first with the worst hardware power. PS3 is the most future-proof with a SATA HDD, blu-ray, gigabit ethernet, etc. Also, ps3 would not make enough money for ps4 R&D costs till the nex-gen of consoles. The ps4 would eventually release slightly before the gen after the next gen as the first on the scene. There would be no major technology overhaul used on any console again and no company would take a loss on consoles. What do you guys think of my predictions?
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1) I pretty much agree with your time line and your reasons aren't the main factors I see but they will be factors. So in part, I agree with this one.
2) SDTVs becoming obsolete doesn't obsolete the Wii, if I remember correctly there was some data a few months back that suggested in terms of % and raw numbers the Wii is connected to more HDTVs than the PS3 or 360. HDTV owners haven't forsaken the Wii and if anything have actually embraced it.
As for the 512MBs of memory I think it is pretty obvious now that we will see them open up the USB port very soon allowing for a significant increase in storage. If they open it up to USB hard drives as well I'll have a Wii with more space than nine 80GB PS3s.
3) The PS3 is no doubt the most well equipped when it comes to new technologies and standards. Unfortunately it is lacking one of the most important new technologies which is full-featured and fully supported motion controls. This won't stop it from having a typical full console life at all, but by the time Nintendo and MS are moving into the next generation Sony will be faced with two major problems with not releasing a successor of their own.
Their first problem is one of motion controls. With Nintendo leading the way already, Sony will be in a position where they can't really afford to give 2 generations of head start to Nintendo in the motion controls. Making that choice puts them seriously behind the curve and allows Nintendo to finalize the bonds so that "motion controls = Nintendo = motions controls" in the mind of the consumer.
Their second problem is one of technology. As you pointed out MS will likely be launching a new Console around the 2011 time frame and that means that Sony will then be competing against a new console that is almost certainly superior to the PS3 given its release some 5 years after the PS3.
In short, not releasing a new unit in line with their competitors puts them way behind in 2 of the most key areas and substantially cripples their ability to stake out a claim in future generations without assuming the risk of disruption themselves...which may actually be a good thing but they'd still prefer to avoid being forced into it and choose to on their own.
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