Sqrl said:
1) I pretty much agree with your time line and your reasons aren't the main factors I see but they will be factors. So in part, I agree with this one. 2) SDTVs becoming obsolete doesn't obsolete the Wii, if I remember correctly there was some data a few months back that suggested in terms of % and raw numbers the Wii is connected to more HDTVs than the PS3 or 360. HDTV owners haven't forsaken the Wii and if anything have actually embraced it. As for the 512MBs of memory I think it is pretty obvious now that we will see them open up the USB port very soon allowing for a significant increase in storage. If they open it up to USB hard drives as well I'll have a Wii with more space than nine 80GB PS3s. 3) The PS3 is no doubt the most well equipped when it comes to new technologies and standards. Unfortunately it is lacking one of the most important new technologies which is full-featured and fully supported motion controls. This won't stop it from having a typical full console life at all, but by the time Nintendo and MS are moving into the next generation Sony will be faced with two major problems with not releasing a successor of their own. Their first problem is one of motion controls. With Nintendo leading the way already, Sony will be in a position where they can't really afford to give 2 generations of head start to Nintendo in the motion controls. Making that choice puts them seriously behind the curve and allows Nintendo to finalize the bonds so that "motion controls = Nintendo = motions controls" in the mind of the consumer. Their second problem is one of technology. As you pointed out MS will likely be launching a new Console around the 2011 time frame and that means that Sony will then be competing against a new console that is almost certainly superior to the PS3 given its release some 5 years after the PS3. In short, not releasing a new unit in line with their competitors puts them way behind in 2 of the most key areas and substantially cripples their ability to stake out a claim in future generations without assuming the risk of disruption themselves...which may actually be a good thing but they'd still prefer to avoid being forced into it and choose to on their own.
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Sony could update the six-axis motion control system and besides I think the motion control thing is over-exaggerated. Some games would never use motion controls. Can you play street fighter with motion controls? The money for PS4 R&D would have to come from SCE and it would be a long time coming.
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