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Forums - Sales Discussion - SONY LOSSES, especially PS3 – New & Improved Analysis - End Mar 2008

bigger profit requres bigger investments thats all it is :)



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To answer some of the questions that a lot of people seem to have (con't):

2. For all intents and purposes, PS3 = games + hardware + PSN, etc.
There is no breakdown for PSN, so most likely it was broken down into a combination of Software (eg. unit sales) and allocated to hardware as well.

But overall, PSN is probably not material to the financial statements YET. Otherwise, Sony would probably disclose some sort of number to inform/excite investors.



To answer some of the questions that a lot of people seem to have (con't):

3. If there have been some R&D costs allocated to different Sony divisions, then a more appropriate term would be:

PS3 Losses allocated to the Game Division



antfromtashkent said:
bigger profit requres bigger investments thats all it is :)

 

But the actual profits won't be bigger at all. Licensing fees and margins on software have not increased dramatically since the PS2 age.

Lower install base = less games sold = less licensing fee AND less revenue on 1st party software.

AND development costs for the 1st party games have risen (4 fold is often mentioned).

So overall the bigger investment + bigger loss per sold PS3 lead to less profit (if profit at all).



GodofWine said:
Anyone care to cook up a guess as too how future profitability of Sony will be impacted by their use of the PS3 to win the High Def. DVD format war? There has to be a value on that, some amount of the 'loss per unit' had to be calculated not only in payback from peripherals and software, but also is a generation of Blu Ray sales.

I think this may be a big picture thing for them.

 

Its difficult to measure the benefit from the Blu-Ray victory. Right now the Blu-Ray consortium have spent hundreds of millions of dollars (if not Billions of dollars) in marketing Blu-Ray and getting exclusivity contracts from major movie studios. It will take years for these costs to be recovered, and until they are none of the members are going to see much in the way of revenues from licencing costs.

Now, if you assume similar licencing fees for Blu-Ray that currently exist for DVD you're (probably) talking about $5 per Blu-Ray player and $1 per Blu-Ray movie (in particular after they have paid for the technology licencing); remember, these licencing fees have to be low enough that (eventually) the players can be sold for $20, and a movie can be sold at $10, at a profit for the manufacturer and retailer. Sony is not the only person who would make money from these licencing fees, and I would be surprised if they made 25% of the total.

In other words I would be surprised if Sony made 1/2 the money they lost on the PS3 back from Blu-Ray licencing ...

 

Now there are other ways that a HD format benefits Sony, like the sales of high-end electonics and being able to re-sell old movies, but these are difficult to measure and Sony would have received these benefits regardless of what format won.



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I'm dumb. I meant PSP.

There's only 2 bucks made off of each PSP sold? Or each PSP game sold?



To answer some of the questions that a lot of people seem to have (con't):

4. The assumptions for PS2 hardware NET Profit is $10(*) per unit CONSTANT.
Taking into account higher prices earlier, and lower production costs in the later years.

5. LOSSES mean NET LOSS, not just component costs for hardware.



DMeisterJ said:
I'm dumb. I meant PSP.

There's only 2 bucks made off of each PSP sold? Or each PSP game sold?

 

DMeister, the PSP Hardware assumed $2(*) net profit.

The total for 2 years ending Mar 2008 = 22.25 million units of PSP

So if you allocate a NET PROFIT of $10(*) per PSP, then the total profit for the 2 years is $222.5(*) million as opposed to $44.5(*) million in the original analysis.

Therefore, the difference of $178(*) million should be allocated as a LOSS somewhere else, most likely PS3 hardware - increasing the OVERALL TOTAL LOSS of the PS3.



Kasz216 said:

$2 per copy seems way too low for Sony's licensing fees. From what i've heard PS3 is by far the most expensive liscensing wise. I'd put it in the 8-10 range if i had to speculate myself. Execting Nintendo's to be around 5 and Microsofts around 7.

 

I've always wondered about licensing fees. Surely they must vary depending on factors such as the MSRP. $8-10 seems plausible for a $50 title, but it just seems silly that a $20 PS2 game would have almost half the money go to Sony. Once the retailer takes his cut, and manufacturing and distribution get paid, that leaves hardly anything for the publisher.



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BengaBenga said:

Nothing is impossible, but it's highly unlikely.

1) Sony's shipment target for PS3 is 10 million (april 2008 - march 2009). They'll easily make it at the current pricepoint, hence no need for a pricecut.
2) Howard Stinger even mentioned the need for profitability at SCE. It's the first time in years I heard the CEO of Sony talk so directly about SCE's strategy. They used to have quite some autonomy within Sony. It's a big issue (see the figures I posted above, SCE is responsible for a profit drop of over 25%) and a pricecut will have an enormous impact on the profitability.

A simple calculation: Pricecut of $100 x 1 million PS3's is a staggering 100 million less profit.

I agree with you Benga, but there's an even better way to illustrate how costly price cuts can be:

Sony is planning (in their financials) to sell 10 million PS3s this fiscal year. If they cut the price by $100 on each unit, that's a loss of $100 x 10m = 1 billion dollars. Maybe everyone will keep that in mind when discussing what each company should and shouldn't do in terms of sales.



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)