Great job on this thread shams. I appreciate all the hard and tedious work. If your up to doing a handheld one that would rock, but I definately wouldn't blame you if you took a break and left it for someone else. thanks

I think they are only on the list because Wii-only fans had to pick some other games.  I don't think the list is very indicative of the average gamer.

Also, as far as sales, I count 11 games on the 360, including 7 FPS, 1 FPBoxing, 1 TPS (third-person), 1 FPRPG, and Madden that have outsold the last Metroid Prime game, so I don't think the list is very indicative of sales.

 Well I don't think that is quite a resonable conclusion. Gamecube obviously lost the last generation and did not have that much of a user base, while the 360 is fighting strong and could very well end up being second or even in first place. Also there was already a Metroid Prime game for the gamecube.

I do agree however that the list is not very indictative of sales and that the list only shows that there are more wii fans in vgchartz than an indication of actual hype. 

Great job shams, thank you!

I'm still wondering where SPM will land at the end... 2m are a long way to go, but there's still a small chance I think. If the game manages to sell 0.5m in Europe, it should be possible, and Europe is a lot more into Nintendo than it was when the first two games were released, so I don't doubt that it'll top the numbers of Paper Mario 2 in Europe.
But it also depends on the legs the title has in NA. It is still selling well over there, and 0.7m are a sure bet, but it needs to reach almost a million there, because japanese sales won't be higher than 0.6m I think.

windbane said: ckmlb said: koffieboon said: @Windbane, why do you think Super Paper Mario will not even reach 2M copies? In the US and Japan combined this title is close to 1M already and the game isn't even released in PAL territory yet. I don't think it will reach 2 million either. If it does then it won't pass it by much. This won't have Wii Play kind of legs because it's a traditional game. Yeah, because no controller is included with Paper Mario. Wii Play cost $10. I even considered the purchase for my family/girlfriend/30 minutes of activity (notice I didn't say fun, but that's me). Anyway, here's why I don't think it will reach 2 million: Name Console Publisher Japan America Others Total Paper Mario 2 Nintendo 0.46 1.23 0.26 1.95 Paper Mario Nintendo 0.60 0.58 0.20 1.38 Super Paper Mario Nintendo 0.48 0.55 0.00 1.03 Slightly higher in Japan because they have gone crazy for Nintendo, but US numbers way down and it's apparently not very popular elsewhere but I think this game should do a little better because it's more of a typical Mario game. New Super Mario Bros sold just as well in "others" as it did in the US. Well, 78% as well. Therefore, I predict it'll finish under 1.6 million.

So you're taking 2 monts of sales in the US and Japan and assume it will be its total lifetime sales? The Wii just launched and good games released shortly after launch will most likely see continuing sales throughout the lifecycle of the console. SPM was the 9th selling console game in the US and just dropped out of the top 10 because both Pokemon games were mentioned separately. But the game above it sold around 130k so over 100k in its second month seems possible for SPM. Together with the fact that the game hasn't even launched in PAL territory yet this game is destined to be above 2M before the end of the year alone, at least when Nintendo releases the game in Europe soon.

koffieboon said: windbane said: ckmlb said: koffieboon said: @Windbane, why do you think Super Paper Mario will not even reach 2M copies? In the US and Japan combined this title is close to 1M already and the game isn't even released in PAL territory yet. I don't think it will reach 2 million either. If it does then it won't pass it by much. This won't have Wii Play kind of legs because it's a traditional game. Yeah, because no controller is included with Paper Mario. Wii Play cost $10. I even considered the purchase for my family/girlfriend/30 minutes of activity (notice I didn't say fun, but that's me). Anyway, here's why I don't think it will reach 2 million: Name Console Publisher Japan America Others Total Paper Mario 2 Nintendo 0.46 1.23 0.26 1.95 Paper Mario Nintendo 0.60 0.58 0.20 1.38 Super Paper Mario Nintendo 0.48 0.55 0.00 1.03 Slightly higher in Japan because they have gone crazy for Nintendo, but US numbers way down and it's apparently not very popular elsewhere but I think this game should do a little better because it's more of a typical Mario game. New Super Mario Bros sold just as well in "others" as it did in the US. Well, 78% as well. Therefore, I predict it'll finish under 1.6 million. So you're taking 2 monts of sales in the US and Japan and assume it will be its total lifetime sales? The Wii just launched and good games released shortly after launch will most likely see continuing sales throughout the lifecycle of the console. SPM was the 9th selling console game in the US and just dropped out of the top 10 because both Pokemon games were mentioned separately. But the game above it sold around 130k so over 100k in its second month seems possible for SPM. Together with the fact that the game hasn't even launched in PAL territory yet this game is destined to be above 2M before the end of the year alone, at least when Nintendo releases the game in Europe soon.

No, I actually added some to account for that.  The sales are quickly dying down.  Regardless, it won't pass Paper Mario 2. 

Umm... stepping aside from the unrelated Super Paper Mario debate...

What's absolutely crazy is that Madden received no mention whatsoever in this list that shams compiled. If we count all console versions together (PS2/PS3/Wii/360), as shams said was the methodology for this poll, that adds up to a staggering ommission. Madden '08 should do 4-5 million sales easily across those four platforms, and will have a serious chance to be the top selling game of the year. Yet it was barely a blip on the radar screen of this particular forum's posters. Crazy.

This seems to offer further evidence to me that the "hardcore" gamers are seriously out of touch with the sales that drive the market. Granted, this is a not a list predicting top-selling games (only what posters here would personally like to buy), but it's still surprising. If you think that games like Metroid Prime, Heavenly Sword, and any of those new 360 RPGs will be even close to Madden's sales though, you're seriously mistaken. Interesting that there's such a disconnect between the games discussed endlessly on message boards, and which games actually sell out there on the market.

 Just take a look at the elimination game - console thread. No Nintendo consoles have been eliminated, whereas all the Sony ones went early

 Dude I totally agree, every where else in the world they seem to have poll options, when they revamped the forum here I thought we'd get a poll option and a spell checker, and we got everything but. So please when you get a chance who ever is in charge of the forum please add polls, and spell check, I think we need it!

Then you don't like sports games. Yes, EA churns out an update every year for every game but they have had some great updates over the years. NCAA Football continues to have the best dynasty mode in any game, and their new EA Big line is great for more arcade style games.

That said, Madden has no chance at all to be the highest selling game this year. Pokemon will be #1, but if you don't count handhelds it will be Halo or GTA4. Brawl will probably beat it too. Granted, these may depend a little on release dates, but Madden never outsells those games.

However, this year's Madden should be good since they have competition with the 2K legends game and they lost a lot of credibility last year by not adjusting very quickly to the next gen and leaving out features that the PS2 version had. I expect a solid Madden this year, although I never get it anyway. I favor NCAA Football, and we'll get a taste of where EA is at this year next month with that title.