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windbane said:
ckmlb said:
koffieboon said:
@Windbane, why do you think Super Paper Mario will not even reach 2M copies? In the US and Japan combined this title is close to 1M already and the game isn't even released in PAL territory yet.

I don't think it will reach 2 million either. If it does then it won't pass it by much. This won't have Wii Play kind of legs because it's a traditional game.


Yeah, because no controller is included with Paper Mario. Wii Play cost $10. I even considered the purchase for my family/girlfriend/30 minutes of activity (notice I didn't say fun, but that's me).

Anyway, here's why I don't think it will reach 2 million:

NameConsolePublisherJapanAmericaOthersTotal
Paper Mario 2Nintendo0.461.230.261.95
Paper MarioNintendo0.600.580.201.38
Super Paper MarioNintendo0.480.550.001.03

Slightly higher in Japan because they have gone crazy for Nintendo, but US numbers way down and it's apparently not very popular elsewhere but I think this game should do a little better because it's more of a typical Mario game. New Super Mario Bros sold just as well in "others" as it did in the US. Well, 78% as well. Therefore, I predict it'll finish under 1.6 million.


So you're taking 2 monts of sales in the US and Japan and assume it will be its total lifetime sales? The Wii just launched and good games released shortly after launch will most likely see continuing sales throughout the lifecycle of the console. SPM was the 9th selling console game in the US and just dropped out of the top 10 because both Pokemon games were mentioned separately. But the game above it sold around 130k so over 100k in its second month seems possible for SPM. Together with the fact that the game hasn't even launched in PAL territory yet this game is destined to be above 2M before the end of the year alone, at least when Nintendo releases the game in Europe soon.